2 games to go - more stats (for the insomniacs)

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I've had a look at something different this time. I've decided on a slightly more lengthy project of seeing how teams in and around 6th, with a chance of making the playoffs (or missing out) fare, given the opposition yet to play and whether those teams have anything to play for. This is over the last 10 seasons.

First look is to see if whether teams with something to play for are harder to play than teams without something to play for. Criteria used is that a team has a mathematical and realistic prospect of playoffs, automatic promotion or relegation. There was one instance of a team being 6 points adrift of safety with a goal difference of around 20 worse than their challenger. They're down.

Points average against teams with nothing to play for: 1.73
Points average against teams with something to play for: 1.62

Not immensely surprising. However, top half teams outside of the playoffs with nothing to play for have been the most difficult to get results from. Teams in the top 6 with nothing to play for have provided an average of 1.6 points for teams chasing a last playoff place. Teams in the bottom half - 2.14 points. Already relegated - 3 points.

Looking now at teams with something to play for. Unsurprisingly, playing teams in the top 6 needing a result has brought 0.57 points for teams chasing the last playoff spot. Here's the interesting one, though. Teams in 7th-12th with something to play for have provided 1.86 points a game. That suggests that when two contenders meet, the team chasing the team above don't often get the result, it goes to the higher ranked side.

In terms of venue, playing a side with nothing to play for away from home wins more points on average than being at home (1.74 vs 1.71). The opposite is true when it comes to playing a side with something to play for. Home advantage yields 2 points a game, away only 1.33.

Needless to say it's easier for teams chasing a last playoff spot to get points from teams in the bottom half overall than those in the top half.

Overall playing at home yields 1.86 points, playing away 1.57.

4 sides in 10 seasons have broken into the playoffs having been outside with 2 games to go. Those who were in the playoffs and missed out generally did so because they couldn't get results against teams with nothing to play for. I can only put that down to attitude.

Looking ahead to Middlesbrough, every time in the last 10 years where a team in the top 6 needing a result has gone to a team in the bottom half, who also need a result, they've won.

[BLUETIT]

I've had a look at something different this time. I've decided on a slightly more lengthy project of seeing how teams in and around 6th, with a chance of making the playoffs (or missing out) fare, given the opposition yet to play and whether those teams have anything to play for. This is over the last 10 seasons.

First look is to see if whether teams with something to play for are harder to play than teams without something to play for. Criteria used is that a team has a mathematical and realistic prospect of playoffs, automatic promotion or relegation. There was one instance of a team being 6 points adrift of safety with a goal difference of around 20 worse than their challenger. They're down.

Points average against teams with nothing to play for: 1.73
Points average against teams with something to play for: 1.62

Not immensely surprising. However, top half teams outside of the playoffs with nothing to play for have been the most difficult to get results from. Teams in the top 6 with nothing to play for have provided an average of 1.6 points for teams chasing a last playoff place. Teams in the bottom half - 2.14 points. Already relegated - 3 points.

Looking now at teams with something to play for. Unsurprisingly, playing teams in the top 6 needing a result has brought 0.57 points for teams chasing the last playoff spot. Here's the interesting one, though. Teams in 7th-12th with something to play for have provided 1.86 points a game. That suggests that when two contenders meet, the team chasing the team above don't often get the result, it goes to the higher ranked side.

In terms of venue, playing a side with nothing to play for away from home wins more points on average than being at home (1.74 vs 1.71). The opposite is true when it comes to playing a side with something to play for. Home advantage yields 2 points a game, away only 1.33.

Needless to say it's easier for teams chasing a last playoff spot to get points from teams in the bottom half overall than those in the top half.

Overall playing at home yields 1.86 points, playing away 1.57.

4 sides in 10 seasons have broken into the playoffs having been outside with 2 games to go. Those who were in the playoffs and missed out generally did so because they couldn't get results against teams with nothing to play for. I can only put that down to attitude.

Looking ahead to Middlesbrough, every time in the last 10 years where a team in the top 6 needing a result has gone to a team in the bottom half, who also need a result, they've won.

As you’ve so much time on your hands, can you work out Saturday’s winning lottery numbers please

[IanD]

I've had a look at something different this time. I've decided on a slightly more lengthy project of seeing how teams in and around 6th, with a chance of making the playoffs (or missing out) fare, given the opposition yet to play and whether those teams have anything to play for. This is over the last 10 seasons.

First look is to see if whether teams with something to play for are harder to play than teams without something to play for. Criteria used is that a team has a mathematical and realistic prospect of playoffs, automatic promotion or relegation. There was one instance of a team being 6 points adrift of safety with a goal difference of around 20 worse than their challenger. They're down.

Points average against teams with nothing to play for: 1.73
Points average against teams with something to play for: 1.62

Not immensely surprising. However, top half teams outside of the playoffs with nothing to play for have been the most difficult to get results from. Teams in the top 6 with nothing to play for have provided an average of 1.6 points for teams chasing a last playoff place. Teams in the bottom half - 2.14 points. Already relegated - 3 points.

Looking now at teams with something to play for. Unsurprisingly, playing teams in the top 6 needing a result has brought 0.57 points for teams chasing the last playoff spot. Here's the interesting one, though. Teams in 7th-12th with something to play for have provided 1.86 points a game. That suggests that when two contenders meet, the team chasing the team above don't often get the result, it goes to the higher ranked side.

In terms of venue, playing a side with nothing to play for away from home wins more points on average than being at home (1.74 vs 1.71). The opposite is true when it comes to playing a side with something to play for. Home advantage yields 2 points a game, away only 1.33.

Needless to say it's easier for teams chasing a last playoff spot to get points from teams in the bottom half overall than those in the top half.

Overall playing at home yields 1.86 points, playing away 1.57.

4 sides in 10 seasons have broken into the playoffs having been outside with 2 games to go. Those who were in the playoffs and missed out generally did so because they couldn't get results against teams with nothing to play for. I can only put that down to attitude.

Looking ahead to Middlesbrough, every time in the last 10 years where a team in the top 6 needing a result has gone to a team in the bottom half, who also need a result, they've won.

And Boro have poor home form. 3-0 Boro then....it is Cardiff City we are talking about!

[Eric the Half a Bee]

As you’ve so much time on your hands, can you work out Saturday’s winning lottery numbers please

My mystic moggy has calculated the winning numbers. His fee is half of your winnings. He wants to buy another small Pacific island to add to the 25 he already has.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

And Boro have poor home form. 3-0 Boro then....it is Cardiff City we are talking about!

I think most of us are guilty of thinking that, if a team would make a hash of things, that team would be Cardiff City. However if we consider the last 20 years we've managed these:
won the lottery of the playoffs once,
won penalty shoot outs in playoff and League cup semi finals,
won an FA cup semi final,
won the Championship,
held off a strong challenge from Fulham 2 years ago to win automatic promotion with one of the highest points totals achieved by runners-up,
held off the challenge of teams below us in the table to finish in the playoffs on 3 occasions.

If we consider the playoffs to be a total lottery, a 1 in 4 chance with a 1 in 2 chance of getting to the final, in our last 4 playoff campaigns we've won 1 (out of 4), got to a final twice (out of 4) and missed out twice. That's pretty much what you'd expect.

[BLUETIT]

My mystic moggy has calculated the winning numbers. His fee is half of your winnings. He wants to buy another small Pacific island to add to the 25 he already has.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IUQiO25IwYM

[dembethewarrior]

I've had a look at something different this time. I've decided on a slightly more lengthy project of seeing how teams in and around 6th, with a chance of making the playoffs (or missing out) fare, given the opposition yet to play and whether those teams have anything to play for. This is over the last 10 seasons.

First look is to see if whether teams with something to play for are harder to play than teams without something to play for. Criteria used is that a team has a mathematical and realistic prospect of playoffs, automatic promotion or relegation. There was one instance of a team being 6 points adrift of safety with a goal difference of around 20 worse than their challenger. They're down.

Points average against teams with nothing to play for: 1.73
Points average against teams with something to play for: 1.62

Not immensely surprising. However, top half teams outside of the playoffs with nothing to play for have been the most difficult to get results from. Teams in the top 6 with nothing to play for have provided an average of 1.6 points for teams chasing a last playoff place. Teams in the bottom half - 2.14 points. Already relegated - 3 points.

Looking now at teams with something to play for. Unsurprisingly, playing teams in the top 6 needing a result has brought 0.57 points for teams chasing the last playoff spot. Here's the interesting one, though. Teams in 7th-12th with something to play for have provided 1.86 points a game. That suggests that when two contenders meet, the team chasing the team above don't often get the result, it goes to the higher ranked side.

In terms of venue, playing a side with nothing to play for away from home wins more points on average than being at home (1.74 vs 1.71). The opposite is true when it comes to playing a side with something to play for. Home advantage yields 2 points a game, away only 1.33.

Needless to say it's easier for teams chasing a last playoff spot to get points from teams in the bottom half overall than those in the top half.

Overall playing at home yields 1.86 points, playing away 1.57.

4 sides in 10 seasons have broken into the playoffs having been outside with 2 games to go. Those who were in the playoffs and missed out generally did so because they couldn't get results against teams with nothing to play for. I can only put that down to attitude.

Looking ahead to Middlesbrough, every time in the last 10 years where a team in the top 6 needing a result has gone to a team in the bottom half, who also need a result, they've won.

Tl;dr we will beat Boro.

Thanks for the stats.

[IanD]

I think most of us are guilty of thinking that, if a team would make a hash of things, that team would be Cardiff City. However if we consider the last 20 years we've managed these:
won the lottery of the playoffs once,
won penalty shoot outs in playoff and League cup semi finals,
won an FA cup semi final,
won the Championship,
held off a strong challenge from Fulham 2 years ago to win automatic promotion with one of the highest points totals achieved by runners-up,
held off the challenge of teams below us in the table to finish in the playoffs on 3 occasions.

If we consider the playoffs to be a total lottery, a 1 in 4 chance with a 1 in 2 chance of getting to the final, in our last 4 playoff campaigns we've won 1 (out of 4), got to a final twice (out of 4) and missed out twice. That's pretty much what you'd expect.

Let's see what 5.00pm Saturday brings us. Hopefully not a scenario where we have to beat Hull and a.n. other team has to draw or lose in the last match if the season. It might be Cardiff City but at least there is rarely a dull moment.
I, for one, enjoy your stats posts so please keep them up.

[Toadstool]

Probably one of the other results to look out for apart from the obvious is Hull v Luton - the outcome of that could decide whether Hull are safe unsafe or need a result in the final game against us...

Also Charltons last game ( a team Hull could overtake to gain safety ) play Leeds in their last game - so there is every chance Hull could stay up if they beat us.

[dembethewarrior]

Probably one of the other results to look out for apart from the obvious is Hull v Luton - the outcome of that could decide whether Hull are safe unsafe or need a result in the final game against us...

Also Charltons last game ( a team Hull could overtake to gain safety ) play Leeds in their last game - so there is every chance Hull could stay up if they beat us.

I've been looking at the fixtures this morning too. Still a lot at stake.

[NYCBlue]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../championship/

70% chance of making the playoffs.

[Toadstool]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../championship/

70% chance of making the playoffs.

and 11% chance of being promoted

[Bluebina]

On paper we should make it, then Brentofrd will beat us comfortably, but this is football?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Probably one of the other results to look out for apart from the obvious is Hull v Luton - the outcome of that could decide whether Hull are safe unsafe or need a result in the final game against us...

Also Charltons last game ( a team Hull could overtake to gain safety ) play Leeds in their last game - so there is every chance Hull could stay up if they beat us.

Funny how Hull is another pivotal fixture at the end of the season. It was our last game when we won the Championship in 2013 and won them 2nd spot. 2 years (and a bit) ago, we won there 2-0 in our penultimate game of the season, which meant automatic promotion was in our hands on the final day.

As for Hull City, they won 3 games, including an FA cup tie, on the trot in January. Since then, they've played 18 games, losing 14, only winning 1. Over that period they have the worst points per game record of any sides in the 4 divisions. In 8 of those 18 games they've conceded 3 or more goals. Even if they'd have kept a clean sheet against Wigan, their defensive record would be the worst of any side in the 4 divisions. Two of their draws were 3-3 and 4-4. They haven't kept a clean sheet for 19 games and their last 0-0 draw was November 2018.

[dembethewarrior]

Funny how Hull is another pivotal fixture at the end of the season. It was our last game when we won the Championship in 2013 and won them 2nd spot. 2 years (and a bit) ago, we won there 2-0 in our penultimate game of the season, which meant automatic promotion was in our hands on the final day.

As for Hull City, they won 3 games, including an FA cup tie, on the trot in January. Since then, they've played 18 games, losing 14, only winning 1. Over that period they have the worst points per game record of any sides in the 4 divisions. In 8 of those 18 games they've conceded 3 or more goals. Even if they'd have kept a clean sheet against Wigan, their defensive record would be the worst of any side in the 4 divisions. Two of their draws were 3-3 and 4-4. They haven't kept a clean sheet for 19 games and their last 0-0 draw was November 2018.

Nil nil is my bet then.