+ Visit Cardiff FC for Latest News, Transfer Gossip, Fixtures and Match Results
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 44

Thread: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

  1. #1

    How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    I thought I'd examine how sides have typically fared when they've been relegated from the Championship (or Division One or Division 2), looking particularly at sides that have spent most of their existence within the top two tiers of English football and promotions/relegations since the 1970s.

    Man City and Leicester have been relegated to the third tier once. Both won immediate promotion.

    Middlesbrough spent two seasons in the third tier, winning promotion in both.

    Aston Villa, Derby, Southampton and West Brom both spent two seasons in the third tier, winning promotion at the second attempt.

    Leeds spent 3 seasons trying to get out Division Two, failing twice in the playoffs but winning automatic promotion at the third time of asking. Wolves also spent 3 seasons in the 3rd tier, getting relegated once and winning promotion twice. Forest spent 2006-08 in the division finishing 7th, 4th and then winning automatic promotion.

    Birmingham City spent 4 seasons there in the 90s, winning promotion twice.

    Blackburn have won 3 promotions in 6 seasons in the third tier. Stoke 2 from 7 with 2 other failed playoff attempts. Sheffield Wednesday 3 from 9.

    Next, let's move to sides that have spend 10 or more seasons in the third tier. Bolton have won promotion 3 times but also been relegated twice, similarly with Burnley. Fulham have won 4 promotions but also endured 8 seasons before relegation to the bottom division. Portsmouth have also been relegated to the dungeon but have been promoted twice and have only lost out in the playoffs in recent seasons.

    Our previous form in the division is quite different to many other sides with similar stays in the division. Since the 70s we've won promotion to the 2nd tier on 3 occasions, though in the 14 years from 1986 we would be relegated on 4 out of the 6 seasons we spent in the third tier.

    Are there any conclusions to draw from all of the above? Big sides tend to get out of the division quickly with the playoffs being the biggest stumbling block. If a side has big problems in the Championship, particularly financial, then further problems are likely. However, staying the Championship if there are big problems only delays the inevitable and the fall can be greater, like we've seen with Bolton and Portsmouth in recent times.

    Historically I'd class Cardiff City as a big club whose home is in the 2nd tier, despite the 80s and 90s. Some big clubs have ended up in the bottom division. Ours was, for a club of our size, quite a lengthy absence from where we have belonged historically. Such lengthy absences don't seem to strike twice.

  2. #2

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    I don't think in the long term it's enormously damaging. It gives clubs a chance to reset finances and if you are a big club there's a decent chance you can bounce out in a year or two with finances in order and probably a few supporters passions reignited by promotion, visiting new grounds, sticking my the club etc. Sounds better than stagnating in the championship in some respects.

    That said...it could take decades to get out, as we know only too well..

  3. #3

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I don't think in the long term it's enormously damaging. It gives clubs a chance to reset finances and if you are a big club there's a decent chance you can bounce out in a year or two with finances in order and probably a few supporters passions reignited by promotion, visiting new grounds, sticking my the club etc. Sounds better than stagnating in the championship in some respects.

    That said...it could take decades to get out, as we know only too well..
    That is the obvious issue, and as you say, we know only too well! Highly unusual for a club of, dare I say it, our standing as a 2nd tier regular.

  4. #4

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Massively damaging.

    Financially and from a football perspective.

  5. #5

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    I think clubs get about £6m a season less in League One. That's before the reduction in gate receipts, sponsorship etc

  6. #6

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Agreed. I think it would take us many years to get back to the championship

  7. #7

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    I hope our Vince is reading this thread

  8. #8

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by DubaiDai View Post
    Agreed. I think it would take us many years to get back to the championship
    Based on what?

  9. #9

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hilts View Post
    Massively damaging.

    Financially and from a football perspective.
    Yes, so many bigger sides have done so badly from their brief jaunts in the third tier.

  10. #10

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Took us 20 years last time so I say it can be really damaging.
    Portsmouth
    Sunderland
    Ipswich
    They have been down there a few years now and Sheffield Wednesday are finding how hard it us this season
    We need to stay up if we can and try and kick on and improve sensibly over the next 5 years.

  11. #11

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by willo1927 View Post
    Took us 20 years last time so I say it can be really damaging.
    Portsmouth
    Sunderland
    Ipswich
    They have been down there a few years now and Sheffield Wednesday are finding how hard it us this season
    We need to stay up if we can and try and kick on and improve sensibly over the next 5 years.
    It needs to be said that these are among the current worst case scenarios.

    I would also add that there's absolutely no way this club would spend 18 years in the bottom 2 tiers as things stand.

  12. #12

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I don't think in the long term it's enormously damaging. It gives clubs a chance to reset finances and if you are a big club there's a decent chance you can bounce out in a year or two with finances in order and probably a few supporters passions reignited by promotion, visiting new grounds, sticking my the club etc. Sounds better than stagnating in the championship in some respects.

    That said...it could take decades to get out, as we know only too well..
    How do you reset your finances when the club will make far far less on almost everything? Given our debt levels, impending court cases, with a fan base that in the main feels quite meh at the moment it seems to me it could be quite damaging. Personally think it would take a fair while to correct.

    Are we stagnating? We have come down what two three seasons ago? Since our promotion to this level we have mostly had some form of success or excitement at least, even this season, it's not exactly a boring mid table run, plenty to moan about. In the short term I see your point but it's not as if we have struggled for a number of seasons and nothing is happening.

    Relegation to me just means more young fans lost to whoever looks good on Sky at the time they are growing up. We have no divine right but with the stadium and facilities the club has built up since our 2003 promotion I think it would be a massive shame for the club to head back down there.

    I'd still go down but the thought of us struggling in league 1 with sub 10k crowds would be dreadful compared to where the club could have been. Is what it is I suppose.

  13. #13

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    It needs to be said that these are among the current worst case scenarios.

    I would also add that there's absolutely no way this club would spend 18 years in the bottom 2 tiers as things stand.
    Why would we be different to them.
    Say we go down where is the money going tocome from for a promotion push?
    Our finances would take a massive hit.
    How could you guarantee we wouldn't take that long to go back up?
    It's much easier to improve while in the championship than in league 1
    It's so much easier to get quality in as a championship clue with decent singing like Whits Chopra Marshall Bothroyd Bamba Hoilett and so on.
    None of these cost a fortune ut they would never have come if we were in league 1.
    I do t get this going down to come back
    stronger.
    Say we did well and came back in 3/4 years
    We would still be November off an if we stayed up this year soi don't see the upside of going down.

  14. #14

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Given the level of debt the club has, a drop to League One would be very damaging - probably leading to a reduction in academy funding as well.

  15. #15

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trigger View Post
    How do you reset your finances when the club will make far far less on almost everything? Given our debt levels, impending court cases, with a fan base that in the main feels quite meh at the moment it seems to me it could be quite damaging. Personally think it would take a fair while to correct.

    Are we stagnating? We have come down what two three seasons ago? Since our promotion to this level we have mostly had some form of success or excitement at least, even this season, it's not exactly a boring mid table run, plenty to moan about. In the short term I see your point but it's not as if we have struggled for a number of seasons and nothing is happening.

    Relegation to me just means more young fans lost to whoever looks good on Sky at the time they are growing up. We have no divine right but with the stadium and facilities the club has built up since our 2003 promotion I think it would be a massive shame for the club to head back down there.

    I'd still go down but the thought of us struggling in league 1 with sub 10k crowds would be dreadful compared to where the club could have been. Is what it is I suppose.
    What I mean is that some big clubs come down from the premiership, or linger in the championship and build up huge wage bills. Relegation, whilst far from desirable means you can probably shed a lot of that and start again with the added bonus of having good crowds. Notable that Norwich, Southampton and Leicester all went down to League 1 in recent seasons and went on to bright things.

    Doesn't always happen and crowds would be the key issue for City, but if we kept decent crowds of 15,000+ or so I don't think it need be a total disaster long term. I bet if Sunderland go up this year they will thrive in the championship next year. Momentum can be a powerful force.

    The alternative is Bolton or Pompey of course, and you get stuck down there and the club drifts back to where we were around 2001.

  16. #16

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    For us? VERY.

  17. #17

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    With the levels of debt we are carrying I think relegation would be a disaster, perhaps leading to administration. In terms of football.. I think there are teams in league 1 who play much better than us and I wouldn't be concerned about the actual football.

    "Resetting the finances".. We should be doing that anyway and think we are.

    We are a club without a vision and have spaffed millions and millions on annual gambles. They didn't work out, only provided us with a few days in the sun, nothing long term or sustainable.

    I don't see that relegation would help fix that.

    Ideally we avoid relegation and allow our young management team to get on with more sensible squad rebuilding.. using a mix of academy players and sensible free or low cost signings.

    I would say everything hinges on the pending court cases too.

  18. #18

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Yes, we spent two decades in the lower divisions after our last relegation from the second tier, but we went straight back up on the two previous occasions and neither time did we have a big budget to spend. A side with a nucleus of local, home grown Academy products going well in the third tier would soon lead to a much better atmosphere and I would guess better crowds at Cardiff City Stadium, but I find it impossible to judge what is most likely to happen until we get a better idea of what sort of backing Vincent Tan would be prepared to give the manager in the event of us being relegated.

  19. #19

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Rotherham, Millwall, Peterborough, Barnsley, Blackpool, Hull, Wigan all clubs that have bounced back recently. Some have gone back down but looking good to bounce back.
    Wycombe top of the league after going down last season. Rotherham will go top if win games in hand. Wigan also up there again this season.

    I donít think itís the disaster some think it will be and long term it may actually benefit the development of this generation of academy lads now breaking into the first team.

  20. #20

    Re: How damaging is relegation to the third tier?

    Quote Originally Posted by AfricanBluebird View Post
    With the levels of debt we are carrying I think relegation would be a disaster, perhaps leading to administration. In terms of football.. I think there are teams in league 1 who play much better than us and I wouldn't be concerned about the actual football.

    "Resetting the finances".. We should be doing that anyway and think we are.

    We are a club without a vision and have spaffed millions and millions on annual gambles. They didn't work out, only provided us with a few days in the sun, nothing long term or sustainable.

    I don't see that relegation would help fix that.

    Ideally we avoid relegation and allow our young management team to get on with more sensible squad rebuilding.. using a mix of academy players and sensible free or low cost signings.

    I would say everything hinges on the pending court cases too.
    Hopefully we can say we were a club without a vision and have spaffed millions and millions on annual gambles.
    But no more

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •