By elections.

[Eric Cartman]

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

I don't think I can explain why it's a bad idea any more clearly.

I think it's actually the other way around, you are looking for data to support something because you wish it to be true. This is always a bad idea.

The most informed estimate of where each party is at currently is either the most recent MRP or the poll of polls. Neither make for pretty reading for the Conservatives.

Always worth remembering also that this election is likely to be a bit different to previous in that the Tories image is so worn and toxic that nobody other than reform/DUP(?) will work with them. Labour doesn't need a majority to govern, they likely don't even need to be the largest party to form a coalition.

[pipster]

I don't think I can explain why it's a bad idea any more clearly.

I think it's actually the other way around, you are looking for data to support something because you wish it to be true. This is always a bad idea.

The most informed estimate of where each party is at currently is either the most recent MRP or the poll of polls. Neither make for pretty reading for the Conservatives.

Always worth remembering also that this election is likely to be a bit different to previous in that the Tories image is so worn and toxic that nobody other than reform/DUP(?) will work with them. Labour doesn't need a majority to govern, they likely don't even need to be the largest party to form a coalition.

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

[Eric Cartman]

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

I think this is confirmation bias and just a kind of nostalgic noise. I remember a bit of clinging to the idea that polling methodology was wrong and therefore wasn't predicting accurately but other than that a small loss was expected, and certainly predicted by the polls at the time. Obviously it turned out to be much bigger.

In the run up to the 2019 election labour were continually polling 6-10 points behind and there wasn't much confidence in a victory at all.

Ironically this time around Tory MPs have basically quiet quit assuming a massive loss, yet some on here think its still neck and neck.

You don't half write a lot about politics for someone who doesn't like talking about it.

[the other bob wilson]

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

As I said before, desperate times, desperate measures - do you really believe all of that?