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Thread: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

  1. #1

    Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Now putting aside pros and cons feelings on Farage, and thinking if this objectively and dispassionately, today I tried to think where elements of surprise may lie in this election. It is a good thought exercise as pollsters can get the scale wrong, even if the general result broadly correct.

    Reforms main policies are:

    1. Modern apprenticeships for school leavers
    2. NHS funding
    3. Income tax bracket revision (from £12.5k up
    to 20k for basic tax bracket).

    Now, where I am left scratching my head is that the press are running with the narrative that it will split the Conservative vote. Sure he and Tice come from a capitalist free market side of the argument - agreed.

    But none of the above key policies are geared towards big business or the banks. Granted number .1 is ĒtraditionalistĒ and revitalises the old grammar / technical colleges line of thinking and more traditional Conservative. But it is to the benefit of non-academic students, and typically, but limited to, a lot of working class kids who may aspire to use their practical skills rather than academic page-flicking.

    The NHS is also typical Labour territory. The latter third item is certainly targeted at the elderly and working class. Moving the lower tier tax band from 12.5k to 20k should release around 1.5k a year into low earners pockets - enough to wipe out the issues of bills and food inflation.

    Despite his obvious flaws, and aside from whether it is believable, I wonder if the advertisements cut through, is there a danger of the offer of apprenticeships, more cash in pockets for low earners, and better NHS facilities landing in places like Burnley, Yorkshire, Humber, Welsh valleys, Stoke, Sunderland and the like? There is often a late surge somewhere in the general election. Or will his reputation that he staked on Brexit and its failure mean his believability be far less this time than it was when he ran UKIP and the Brexit Party?

  2. #2
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    I doubt many people will pay any attention to Reform policies - even if they are credulous enough to believe they are serious.

    Reform will appeal to conservative voters (small c) who don't like immigrants or foreigners and a few sole traders who think they may get out of paying NI.

    Mainly they will appeal to those who think the main parties donít understand, respect or represent them - not only the ones who are nostalgic for an imperial myth.

    I think this election will be more about gut feeling and less about manifesto promises than normal, and that goes double for Reform.

  3. #3

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I doubt many people will pay any attention to Reform policies - even if they are credulous enough to believe they are serious.

    Reform will appeal to conservative voters (small c) who don't like immigrants or foreigners and a few sole traders who think they may get out of paying NI.

    Mainly they will appeal to those who think the main parties donít understand, respect or represent them - not only the ones who are nostalgic for an imperial myth.

    I think this election will be more about gut feeling and less about manifesto promises than normal, and that goes double for Reform.
    Most people look beyond that slur about not liking foreigners which given Nigel Farage had kids with a German lady and now has A French girlfriend is quite plainly a lie. People who don't like people don't tend to date those same people.

    The reality is they are against high immigration.

    The last two years have seem absolutely unprecedented levels of immigration. Far in excess of anything the society can provide in time to keep up the same levels of services per 1000 people etc.

    That follows twenty years or so of immigration that again was pretty unprecedented and aligns almost exactly with the period of time at which housing started to become increasingly unaffordable.

    Surely you can see that it is not unreasonable to think there is another way? You don't have to support it, but wanting to return to something that was the norm for most of history does not equate to "not liking" a group of people. If someones child's class has 30 kids in it already and they don't want any more in it, it doesnt mean you hate those kids..it just means you don't think it's sensible.

  4. #4

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    👆 that said. I don't think this is Reforms time. Their time will come if and when the problems the country faces are not solved or improved by the next government.

  5. #5
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Most people look beyond that slur about not liking foreigners which given Nigel Farage had kids with a German lady and now has A French girlfriend is quite plainly a lie. People who don't like people don't tend to date those same people.

    The reality is they are against high immigration.

    The last two years have seem absolutely unprecedented levels of immigration. Far in excess of anything the society can provide in time to keep up the same levels of services per 1000 people etc.

    That follows twenty years or so of immigration that again was pretty unprecedented and aligns almost exactly with the period of time at which housing started to become increasingly unaffordable.

    Surely you can see that it is not unreasonable to think there is another way? You don't have to support it, but wanting to return to something that was the norm for most of history does not equate to "not liking" a group of people. If someones child's class has 30 kids in it already and they don't want any more in it, it doesnt mean you hate those kids..it just means you don't think it's sensible.
    I didnít mention Farage or his views - I was just giving my opinion on who Reform will appeal to and why. I think many of their supporters donít like foreigners (you said hate - I didnít) but the main factor is alienation from the main parties.

    I do think there has to be an informed and serious national debate on immigration - the pros and cons, and the policy options - but I will not be in your camp if it happens.

  6. #6

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Most people look beyond that slur about not liking foreigners which given Nigel Farage had kids with a German lady and now has A French girlfriend is quite plainly a lie. People who don't like people don't tend to date those same people.

    The reality is they are against high immigration.

    The last two years have seem absolutely unprecedented levels of immigration. Far in excess of anything the society can provide in time to keep up the same levels of services per 1000 people etc.

    That follows twenty years or so of immigration that again was pretty unprecedented and aligns almost exactly with the period of time at which housing started to become increasingly unaffordable.

    Surely you can see that it is not unreasonable to think there is another way? You don't have to support it, but wanting to return to something that was the norm for most of history does not equate to "not liking" a group of people. If someones child's class has 30 kids in it already and they don't want any more in it, it doesnt mean you hate those kids..it just means you don't think it's sensible.
    Some of my best friends are continental!

  7. #7

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Most people look beyond that slur about not liking foreigners which given Nigel Farage had kids with a German lady and now has A French girlfriend is quite plainly a lie. People who don't like people don't tend to date those same people.

    The reality is they are against high immigration.

    The last two years have seem absolutely unprecedented levels of immigration. Far in excess of anything the society can provide in time to keep up the same levels of services per 1000 people etc.

    That follows twenty years or so of immigration that again was pretty unprecedented and aligns almost exactly with the period of time at which housing started to become increasingly unaffordable.

    Surely you can see that it is not unreasonable to think there is another way? You don't have to support it, but wanting to return to something that was the norm for most of history does not equate to "not liking" a group of people. If someones child's class has 30 kids in it already and they don't want any more in it, it doesnt mean you hate those kids..it just means you don't think it's sensible.
    I am going to have to pick this apart

    There are plenty of examples of xenophobic people who are married or in relationships with foreigners as a lot of reform voters would call them

    Maurice on here is married to a woman from I believe Thailand and they live in the south of France

    And I think it's fair to say some of his views are farage like

    People of Jewish , Black and Asian origin can be prejudiced so its perfectly possible for farage to be

    And he is if we are being honest

  8. #8

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Most people look beyond that slur about not liking foreigners which given Nigel Farage had kids with a German lady and now has A French girlfriend is quite plainly a lie. People who don't like people don't tend to date those same people.

    The reality is they are against high immigration.

    The last two years have seem absolutely unprecedented levels of immigration. Far in excess of anything the society can provide in time to keep up the same levels of services per 1000 people etc.

    That follows twenty years or so of immigration that again was pretty unprecedented and aligns almost exactly with the period of time at which housing started to become increasingly unaffordable.

    Surely you can see that it is not unreasonable to think there is another way? You don't have to support it, but wanting to return to something that was the norm for most of history does not equate to "not liking" a group of people. If someones child's class has 30 kids in it already and they don't want any more in it, it doesnt mean you hate those kids..it just means you don't think it's sensible.
    Well if the it's just not sensible arguement was prominent then reform and their supporters could have a valid point

    But it's covered in right wing xenophobic nonsense

    So bollocks to them

  9. #9

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I didnít mention Farage or his views - I was just giving my opinion on who Reform will appeal to and why. I think many of their supporters donít like foreigners (you said hate - I didnít) but the main factor is alienation from the main parties.

    I do think there has to be an informed and serious national debate on immigration - the pros and cons, and the policy options - but I will not be in your camp if it happens.
    We donít often agree on politics, but for what itís worth I thought your comments were measured and a fair shout.

  10. #10

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I didnít mention Farage or his views - I was just giving my opinion on who Reform will appeal to and why. I think many of their supporters donít like foreigners (you said hate - I didnít) but the main factor is alienation from the main parties.

    I do think there has to be an informed and serious national debate on immigration - the pros and cons, and the policy options - but I will not be in your camp if it happens.
    What camp would you be in? What level of immigration would kind of level would you say is sustainable?

    Given I want this critical piece of the social, cultural and economic life of the country to be sustainable and make the UK a better place, I rather suspect we are on the same page. I think any social progress at the current level is impossible because it is impossible to provide services quick enough, let alone the cultural arguments

  11. #11

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I am going to have to pick this apart

    There are plenty of examples of xenophobic people who are married or in relationships with foreigners as a lot of reform voters would call them

    Maurice on here is married to a woman from I believe Thailand and they live in the south of France

    And I think it's fair to say some of his views are farage like

    People of Jewish , Black and Asian origin can be prejudiced so its perfectly possible for farage to be

    And he is if we are being honest
    It's also perfectly possible to think that 700,000 people moving to the UK in one year is far too many without that option being based on disliking anyone.

    It baffles me how some on the left still don't get this.

  12. #12

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    It's also perfectly possible to think that 700,000 people moving to the UK in one year is far too many without that option being based on disliking anyone.

    It baffles me how some on the left still don't get this.
    You are saying that because farage has friends from different backgrounds and has had relationships with non British women he can't possibly be xenophobic or racist

    That's what you are saying and that's rubbish

    And that goes for many of his followers

  13. #13

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays View Post
    Some of my best friends are continental!
    And they are jolly hard workers !

  14. #14

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    It's also perfectly possible to think that 700,000 people moving to the UK in one year is far too many without that option being based on disliking anyone.

    It baffles me how some on the left still don't get this.
    Whatís an ďacceptableĒ amount?

  15. #15
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    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by Keyser Soze View Post
    Now putting aside pros and cons feelings on Farage, and thinking if this objectively and dispassionately, today I tried to think where elements of surprise may lie in this election. It is a good thought exercise as pollsters can get the scale wrong, even if the general result broadly correct.

    Reforms main policies are:

    1. Modern apprenticeships for school leavers
    2. NHS funding
    3. Income tax bracket revision (from £12.5k up
    to 20k for basic tax bracket).

    Now, where I am left scratching my head is that the press are running with the narrative that it will split the Conservative vote. Sure he and Tice come from a capitalist free market side of the argument - agreed.

    But none of the above key policies are geared towards big business or the banks. Granted number .1 is ”traditionalist” and revitalises the old grammar / technical colleges line of thinking and more traditional Conservative. But it is to the benefit of non-academic students, and typically, but limited to, a lot of working class kids who may aspire to use their practical skills rather than academic page-flicking.

    The NHS is also typical Labour territory. The latter third item is certainly targeted at the elderly and working class. Moving the lower tier tax band from 12.5k to 20k should release around 1.5k a year into low earners pockets - enough to wipe out the issues of bills and food inflation.

    Despite his obvious flaws, and aside from whether it is believable, I wonder if the advertisements cut through, is there a danger of the offer of apprenticeships, more cash in pockets for low earners, and better NHS facilities landing in places like Burnley, Yorkshire, Humber, Welsh valleys, Stoke, Sunderland and the like? There is often a late surge somewhere in the general election. Or will his reputation that he staked on Brexit and its failure mean his believability be far less this time than it was when he ran UKIP and the Brexit Party?
    No they vote Labour no matter what and don't look at the policies.

  16. #16
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    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    �� that said. I don't think this is Reforms time. Their time will come if and when the problems the country faces are not solved or improved by the next government.
    Yes or a more right wing conservative party.

  17. #17

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    I think what we are seeing is Reform and those on the far right happy to see the death of the Conservative Party as it is now and will move in after the election.

    Presuming they do lose the Leadership battle will be interesting.

  18. #18
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    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    It's also perfectly possible to think that 700,000 people moving to the UK in one year is far too many without that option being based on disliking anyone.

    It baffles me how some on the left still don't get this.
    Housing, GP's, Dentists, A&E's, schools and everything else can't cope, so let us have unlimited immigration what could possibly go wrong?

  19. #19

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue View Post
    Housing, GP's, Dentists, A&E's, schools and everything else can't cope, so let us have unlimited immigration what could possibly go wrong?
    🤣🤣🤣🤣 we are doomed.

  20. #20

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    "When a comedian pretending to be a reporter, gives you the honest news and make more sense than the real media and government in charge, you know the country is in trouble". https://youtu.be/IBr2CojKYbg?feature=shared

  21. #21

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    reform are currently predicted to get between 0 and 6 seats at the election, with 1 or 2 the most likely outcome

  22. #22

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    reform are currently predicted to get between 0 and 6 seats at the election, with 1 or 2 the most likely outcome
    I hope they split the tory vote and don't get any seats

    Mind you farage might act like a fanny in Parliament and get shown up so there are plus points

  23. #23

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    Whatís an ďacceptableĒ amount?
    Fair question. And not an easy one to answer.

    It's not about what's acceptable though, it's about what's optimum to make our society better for those who live here and those who will, balancing the benefits and costs.

    A good way to think of it is that we would all agree that the country can seamlessly accommodate one extra person a year. We can all also agree than 10million a year would create serious issues, therefore I think everyone would accept the answer lies somewhere in between.

    For me it has to be far lower. In particular it needs to be lower than how quickly we can provide the services and facilities needed. 700,000 is the size of a very large city, which has hundreds of schools, doctors surgeries, hospital beds, parks, motorways, train stations, shops, pubs, all the rest of the things that a good society needs.

    Most of those things, esp housing and transport require funding, planning and building that takes the best part of a decade. Doctors surgeries and schools probably take five years. As such we are forever playing catch up and the collective quality of life has been falling and WILL continue to fall at such high levels.

    I would suggest around 75,000-100,000, focused where needed coupled with a mass reimagining of the education system to train people for the vocational jobs needed so that we are less reliant.

    Very few people "dislike" other groups of people. It's about being sensible and grown up in terms of dealing with what is a profoundly important issue.

  24. #24

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Fair question. And not an easy one to answer.

    It's not about what's acceptable though, it's about what's optimum to make our society better for those who live here and those who will, balancing the benefits and costs.

    A good way to think of it is that we would all agree that the country can seamlessly accommodate one extra person a year. We can all also agree than 10million a year would create serious issues, therefore I think everyone would accept the answer lies somewhere in between.

    For me it has to be far lower. In particular it needs to be lower than how quickly we can provide the services and facilities needed. 700,000 is the size of a very large city, which has hundreds of schools, doctors surgeries, hospital beds, parks, motorways, train stations, shops, pubs, all the rest of the things that a good society needs.

    Most of those things, esp housing and transport require funding, planning and building that takes the best part of a decade. Doctors surgeries and schools probably take five years. As such we are forever playing catch up and the collective quality of life has been falling and WILL continue to fall at such high levels.

    I would suggest around 75,000-100,000, focused where needed coupled with a mass reimagining of the education system to train people for the vocational jobs needed so that we are less reliant.

    Very few people "dislike" other groups of people. It's about being sensible and grown up in terms of dealing with what is a profoundly important issue.
    There has always been a element of people who dislike immigrants , foreigners, asylum seekers

    And that element is bigger than it has been for many years

    It's very naive of you to suggest otherwise

    I find these comments from you and your defence of farage very odd

  25. #25

    Re: Is this where Farage could surprise Labour, Conservatives and pollsters?

    Heís a nut case.

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