
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
It's tough to work out what sort of figure we're talking about here. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but my understanding is that the running total figure of deaths we hear at the daily briefings includes up to date figures for care home deaths in Scotland and Wales, but not England and Northern Ireland. So, if that's right, then the current figure of 21,092 includes care home deaths in Scotland and Wales, but not those in England and Northern Ireland from 17 April onwards - apparently, the daily figures being shown now up to that date include care home deaths in England and Northern Ireland.
With the announcement today of care home deaths for the fortnight 10-24 April, it's hard to get any accuracy on what this means for that 21,092 figure, but here's what the head of the health analysis and life events division at the ONS had to say this morning as reported in the Guardian's rolling Live COVID19 coverage;-
"Nick Stripe, head of the health analysis and life events division at the ONS, has been speaking to the BBC about todays coronavirus death figures released this morning. He said there have now been around 27,000 excess deaths - that is more deaths than you would expect on average for this time of year - in the four most recent weeks for which figures are available.
Of the 12,000 excess deaths in the most recent week (see 9.42am), he said that around 25% of those did not involve coronavirus being mentioned on the death certificate.
He also said that there total number of coronavirus deaths in care homes in England was probably now at least 5,500 - which is higher than the official most recent ONS figure. (See 9.55am.) He explained:
In care homes we are now seeing over three times more deaths in total in care homes, in that last week, than we saw four weeks previously. And 28% of those deaths are from Covid.
Now, weve also taken data from the Care Quality Commission over the last few days. The Care Quality Commission collects death notifications of all deaths of care home residents. And we have been able to compare that data against our death registrations data, and its a good match.
So from the 10 to 17 April, for example, we can see a very close match.
If you take that data, we can see the Care Quality Commission has figures for England of 4,343 deaths in care homes between 10 and 24 April, so much more current, thats last Friday.
And we know that we had 1,000 deaths registered in care homes prior to 10 April.
So in total we are looking at around at least 5,500 deaths in care homes in England related to Covid by 24 April."
I see from the link Veg 1960 posted at 12.17 that the Guardian is saying that this morning's figures put the total deaths figure for the UK at over 25,000 which would put us above Spain and France leaving only the USA and Italy in front of us.