Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[goats]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57785073

Wales should now lift all Covid restrictions, a leading expert on infectious diseases has said.

Drakeford won’t like this at al…..

[surge]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57785073

Wales should now lift all Covid restrictions, a leading expert on infectious diseases has said.

"Over the next couple of weeks, as we start to open up and this current surge of cases passes through, we'll see whether we're on the right course - but all the data suggests that we are."

No longer looking to squash a sombrero then? The EU* set a target for it's members of reaching 70% of adults (18+) vaccinated which Wales has hit by 10th of July so we're potentially in a good spot to change from law to advice, but the advice needs to be clear so that what is high risk is understood (how to respond to that etc.) and still support provided if a person needs to isolate to ensure they've got fewest reasons not to. Oh, and people need to be willing to engage with it.

We're in new territory now but if we go back to right at the start the messages were confused and there has been confused messaging from different UK (representing English health) ministers now which doesn't help anyone.

[xsnaggle]

"Over the next couple of weeks, as we start to open up and this current surge of cases passes through, we'll see whether we're on the right course - but all the data suggests that we are."

No longer looking to squash a sombrero then? The EU* set a target for it's members of reaching 70% of adults (18+) vaccinated which Wales has hit by 10th of July so we're potentially in a good spot to change from law to advice, but the advice needs to be clear so that what is high risk is understood (how to respond to that etc.) and still support provided if a person needs to isolate to ensure they've got fewest reasons not to. Oh, and people need to be willing to engage with it.

We're in new territory now but if we go back to right at the start the messages were confused and there has been confused messaging from different UK (representing English health) ministers now which doesn't help anyone.

Sorry, what has the EU target got to do with Wales' vaccination numbers? I don't get it!

We are not in the EU.

[surge]

Sorry, what has the EU target got to do with Wales' vaccination numbers? I don't get it!

We are not in the EU.

It's just a way of highlighting the milestone Wales has reached. It would be better to find the document which tells us why the EU has marker at 70% but I'm not going to now. Maybe later.

Main point: we're in a much better position but still need as much understanding as possible of what's high risk, people willing to manage themselves whether it's law or not and confused messaging from the top won't help but support will. This is new territory.

[life on mars]

French going for it :

While addressing the nation on Monday, the French President announced Covid vaccines would be compulsory from September for health workers to help curb the rising number of cases. He also said special passes would be required for anyone wanting to go to a restaurant or on a train or a plane.

He said: "We must go towards vaccination of all French people, it is the only way towards a normal life.

"A new race against the clock is on.

[life on mars]

Covid in Scotland: Move to 'modified' level zero but face coverings remain , https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57820417

will we match up

[LeningradCowboy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57822824

First Minister Mark Drakeford says that he does not want to make it easier for people to travel abroad amid criticism over the costs of Covid tests.

[surge]

18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to provide near real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important.

14. Delaying step 4 by four weeks from 21st June has allowed many more vaccinations to be administered and moved the end of restrictions to a time point close to the school holidays, when transmission is expected to be lower. Although a further delay to step 4 could have some additional positive impact by allowing more people to be vaccinated, the effect of this would be much smaller than the effect of the current delay and it would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter.

15. The peak of the resurgence will however be much lower if the return to pre-pandemic behaviours is gradual, irrespective of legislative decisions (i.e., any changes happen over several months) than if it is rapid, and if more measures to reduce transmission are maintained (high confidence). If the aim is to prevent the NHS being under pressure the priority should be to avoid a very rapid return to pre-pandemic behaviour which could lead to a peak in hospitalisations similar to (or possibly even higher than) previous peaks. The mechanism by which this gradual change to more mixing is achieved is much less important than the fact it is gradual

SAGE 93 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 July 2021

As we move to the next stage of the COVID response, it is essential we change behaviour slowly and steadily.
These papers give some of the data which show why going slowly will reduce the risk to all.

Chris Whitty, July 13th 2021: https://twitter.com/CMO_England/stat...86547196219394

One of the worst thing Wales did was imply that if we accepted the firebreak then as a reward we could act without restrictions afterwards. I think that was a turning point here as English schools going back for one day in January was in England.

[City123]

Wales to move to Alert Level 0 on August 7th

[the other bob wilson]

Wales to move to Alert Level 0 on August 7th

Alert level 1 isn’t it?

[City123]

Alert level 1 isn’t it?

Level 1 July 17th, Level 0 August 7th

BREAKING: #Wales moves fully into Alert Level 1 from the the 17th of July:

🔓 Up to 6 people can meet indoors
🔓 Organised indoor events with 1,000 seated / 200 standing
🔓 Ice rinks can open.

Then from 7th Aug, it move down to Alert Level 0:

🔓 Unlimited people indoors

— Peter Gillibrand (@GillibrandPeter) July 14, 2021

[City123]

"Most COVID rules to be lifted in Wales on 7 August"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57823021

[the other bob wilson]

Level 1 July 17th, Level 0 August 7th

BREAKING: #Wales moves fully into Alert Level 1 from the the 17th of July:

�� Up to 6 people can meet indoors
�� Organised indoor events with 1,000 seated / 200 standing
�� Ice rinks can open.

Then from 7th Aug, it move down to Alert Level 0:

�� Unlimited people indoors

— Peter Gillibrand (@GillibrandPeter) July 14, 2021

Right, so we’re going to be about three weeks behind England then is it?

[BLUETIT]

We kick off on the 7th !

So that’s a full stadium is it ?

[goats]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57822824

First Minister Mark Drakeford says that he does not want to make it easier for people to travel abroad amid criticism over the costs of Covid tests.

Well that’s a shock….people can’t be going abroad and enjoying themselves now

[City123]

Right, so we’re going to be about three weeks behind England then is it?

About that. Same/similar plan as Scotland I believe?

[Baloo]

Wizz postpones plans for Cardiff Airport base 2 weeks before fights scheduled to start: https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/n...ign=newsletter

[the other bob wilson]

Over 50,000 new cases in the U.K. today - Johnson said his Government's decision making would be dictated by data, not dates - pull the other one!

[xsnaggle]

Over 50,000 new cases in the U.K. today - Johnson said his Government's decision making would be dictated by data, not dates - pull the other one!

It does sound high but they were saying that case numbers would double every 7 days. They're not doing that so does that mean tings are actually better than their modelling suggested or not?

[surge]

I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.

[the other bob wilson]

I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.

Eighty five per cent double jabbed would surely be us reaching herd immunity wouldn’t it when you consider that they were talking about sixty per cent possibly being enough back in March last year? If that turns out to be the case, I’m going to have to apologise to dml1954!

[xsnaggle]

I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.

But the people who do need to go to hospital aren't as sick, don't need such intense treatment and are discharged sooner apparently, which means the NHS is not being overwhelmed. And of course far fewer need intensive care and intrusive ventilation.
Let's hope it stays that way.

[blue matt]

Over 50,000 new cases in the U.K. today - Johnson said his Government's decision making would be dictated by data, not dates - pull the other one!

to be fair to boris ( and i know that wont happen here ) When he did his announcement with Prof Doom and Gloom, it was said that " modelling " showed that by the time " freedom day " came ( in 2 weeks time ) the UK might be getting 50 K new cases per day days

They were right

[the other bob wilson]

to be fair to boris ( and i know that wont happen here ) When he did his announcement with Prof Doom and Gloom, it was said that " modelling " showed that by the time " freedom day " came ( in 2 weeks time ) the UK might be getting 50 K new cases per day days

They were right

What I don’t get is why they felt the need to delay for a few weeks in June and now insist on going ahead when the figures are so much worse - when I looked last, the vaccine figures had flattened out somewhat in the interim period as well.

The rights and wrongs of opening up now can be debated, but Johnson is clearly not being guided by “data, not dates” as his whole approach has been dictated by them.

[goats]

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Not having the vaccine is the biggest mistake of my life’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-57866661

Others have just had their first dose and so are not fully protected. Worryingly, about half of the patients on the ward today haven't been vaccinated. I have stopped asking them why, as they are clearly embarrassed."

I guess we can’t all stop our lives because some stupid selfish people didn’t get vaccinated and have ended up in hospital?