It could easily turn into a repeat of their incursion into Afghanistan, which was a disaster in terms of the prestige of their military and in loss of men. And the body bags going home did have a great affect on the peoples attitude to things. It took them 10 years to admit defeat but it was clear in 10 months.

The superiority in aircraft and tanks is less relevant that you may think. The more their aircraft fly the more there is a chance they can be hit, and unlike the planes of yesteryear you can't replace a lost fighter with another one rolling out of the factory in 2 weeks. That is why good quality anti aircraft weaponry is more valuable to the defender than aircraft.
As for tanks, modern warfare theory is that you don't fight tanks with tanks, you fight tanks with infantry properly trained in the use of anti tank weaponry, which again large quantities of have been given to Ukraine, and British soldiers have been training soldiers in their use.
The other problem they will have is a swift advance will stretch their supply lines and leave pockets of Ukrainians in place behind the advance to disrupt and destroy the back up troop which, in all such scenarios are the less effective less well trained/disciplined.
Again it is the general accepted doctrine that to attack a prepared defended position you need 3 times the force you are attacking. So to attack a regiment dug in you need a brigade and so on. And the defenders know the ground and have time to lay traps. If you use that 3/1 logic then 130,000 men is not that many considering for every 1 who is a "teeth arm" soldier there are 5 non teeth arm soldiers to feed supply protect and care for. The sheer logistics of it is quite formidable and if it isn't run right (Or allowed to run right) it can be self defeating.
If Putin tries and fails, even if it takes him years to admit failure, he will never recover from it. If he can find a way out without losing face he will take it

They may well be able to push and armoured thrust straight in to Kiev in a matter of hours but I'd be very surprised if in the days weeks and months that followed they will sorely wish they weren't there.