I expected Putin to carry out a Crimea-style annexation of the majority ethnic Russian eastern areas of Ukraine, alongside a unification with Byelorussia now the opposition have been suppressed.

But the very recent rhetoric and some of the attacks today suggest a much bigger ambition.

RT is running loads of old 'news' clips (from 3-4 years ago mainly) of alleged attacks on ethnic Russians in the Donbas region - backing up his 'genocide' claims. But the focus is ramping up on the legitimacy and political character of the whole Ukraine - repeating his public statements from years back that Ukraine was subject to a 'fascist' coup and the regime is backed by neo-Nazi militias (the Azov Battalion and others). That is also the theme of state-media coverage within Russia itself, and what the Russian public are soaking up.

Biden was more on the ball than other western leaders in predicting this latest stage, but it feels like all of them (US, UK, EU, NATO) have been caught by surprise. Was Putin's comment (very Trump-like I thought) about retaliation against outside interference a nuclear threat? So far there has been a kind of logic and rationality to his moves - but that (even just a vague threat left hanging) would be pure madness.