Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
I think the 33% lead is probably an outlier - two more since put it at 21% and 20%; still massive, well above the 6-10% lead of the week before and well above the lead in the last months of Johnsons reign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_U...neral_election

The last week will go down as how not to manage a budget that contained in all honestly only moderately controversial issues - the market was (is) properly spooked. Strikes me the absence of OBR involvement and going well beyond what they promised, alongside a general feeling of rushing and of course more borrowing created the big issue. The interviews yesterday were also a textbook mistake. There may be a benefit in talking to 'local markets' on the radio but yesterday wasn't it. In doing several 5 minute interviews she set herself up for a fall. One longer one would have made more sense. There was good economic data this morning (GDP in Q2 revised up, current account not as bad as expected, business investment up more than expected) and the market is already returning to some normality - what happens in the longer term remains to be seen.

Labour had a good conference. Really, they just need to keep their nose clean and they will probably win the next general election even if it isn't for another two years or more. If there was an election tomorrow I would vote Labour. But there isn't one tomorrow..

There is every chance that the policies announced will work economically and Labour will need to consider that. It is also a fact, whether you guys like it or not, that every western (especially European) country really is going through very severe economic issues, sometimes slightly different to our own, sometimes the same..sometimes slightly worse, sometimes slightly better. Until Ukraine is sorted, nothing is sorted.

We are in very choppy waters and that undoubtedly benefits the opposition, just as it benefits pretty much every opposition party in the world. Combine that with a detoxified Labour Party, who are now seen as more economically competent and with a likeable leader and you have all the hallmarks of Labour retaining their lead.

That said, I reiterate, IMO there is every chance these economic changes work and I do think this 33% poll is a low point, not the norm.
Tell me James, how many other countries have been given detention and lines by the IMF this week and how many other countries Governments have had their central bank bail them out because there was going to be a run on pension funds? We've seen all sorts of ridiculous excuses for the complete fiasco which took place seven days ago ranging from it being the Labour party's fault to Remainer traders being behind it all (I notice this morning, Life on Mars, bless him, is trying to blame Trade Unions it would appear).

The fact is that, after sacking a possible calming influence and turning down the OBR's offer of the usual budget analysis, the two most powerful members of the Government have made themselves look like, at worst, total idiots who have made enemies out of people who vote Tory normally or, at best, a pair of arrogant zealots who took a huge gamble with the nation's finances and got lucky - after the Bank of England stepped in to save their skins of course.