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Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.
Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.
Why can’t I get the term “desperate times, desperate measures” out of my mind while reading the above?
You’d be better off trying to find out why the Toryvote in recent by elections has collapsed so much more under Sunak compared to Major pre 1997.
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2024/02/...eally-tell-us/
I don't think I can explain why it's a bad idea any more clearly.
I think it's actually the other way around, you are looking for data to support something because you wish it to be true. This is always a bad idea.
The most informed estimate of where each party is at currently is either the most recent MRP or the poll of polls. Neither make for pretty reading for the Conservatives.
Always worth remembering also that this election is likely to be a bit different to previous in that the Tories image is so worn and toxic that nobody other than reform/DUP(?) will work with them. Labour doesn't need a majority to govern, they likely don't even need to be the largest party to form a coalition.
If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.
Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.
The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.
😂
You and your tory mates might not want to talk politics .....well your mates .....you are all over politics like a rash on here .....
And you might think that public opinion is different to your expert analysis but ......
The swing to Labour in Wellingborough was 28.5 percent which was the biggest such swing from tory to Labour since 1945
Ooops
I think this is confirmation bias and just a kind of nostalgic noise. I remember a bit of clinging to the idea that polling methodology was wrong and therefore wasn't predicting accurately but other than that a small loss was expected, and certainly predicted by the polls at the time. Obviously it turned out to be much bigger.
In the run up to the 2019 election labour were continually polling 6-10 points behind and there wasn't much confidence in a victory at all.
Ironically this time around Tory MPs have basically quiet quit assuming a massive loss, yet some on here think its still neck and neck.
You don't half write a lot about politics for someone who doesn't like talking about it.
Exactly. Also an excellent deflection from the actual data. I have no axe to grind about the by-election results, just pointing out that very rarely do we see actual figures comparing the results of a recent election with those of the previous one. Maybe I am being thick but what relevance has "swing" when the number of votes cast for the Labour candidates remained roughly the same regardless of the reasons. To me, in these examples, a large swing implies that a large number of Tory voters switched to voting Labour - clearly that is not the case as the Tory votes are hugely down but not because of a mass defection to Labour. If I was a Tory voter in either of those two constituencies and I wanted to give Sunak/Tories the proverbial bloody nose then I would have surely gone to the polls and voted Labour, thereby boosting their majority to a much more impressive one!