Reply With QuoteThe Racing Post is soooo negative!Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
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The Racing Post's verdict is in:
17th - Cardiff City - Twelfth place last season was a significant step forward for Cardiff, who had narrowly staved off relegation in 2022/23, but some of the underlying statistics were not great with 70 goals conceded and a goal difference of minus 17. The Bluebirds have been fairly quiet in the transfer market and may regress.
The Post's predictions for the top 8:
1st - Burnley
2nd - Leeds Utd
3rd - Middlesbrough
4th - Norwich City
5th - Coventry City
6th - West Brom
7th - Luton Town
8th - Bristol City
The bottom six:
19th - Sunderland
20th - Derby County
21st - Portsmouth
22nd - Blackburn Rovers
23rd - Oxford United
24th - Plymouth Argyle
Their best bet recommendations:
Burnley to win the title @ 8/1
Middlesbrough to be promoted @ 7/2
Plymouth to be relegated @ 9/4
Blackburn to be relegated @ 4/1
Bristol City to finish ahead of Cardiff, Plymouth and Swansea @ 9/4
The Racing Post is soooo negative!
The Second Tier has us finishing 18th - essentially they think we're going nowhere under Vincent Tan. As that's something I've said in the past, I can hardly have a go at them for that, but I think they're wrong to say that he's not been spending anything - it seems to me that claims our wage budget is in the top six of the division are justified this time unless we sell two or three senior members of the squad soon.
They also tipped Watford for relegation
Whats going on at Watford?!
Not The Top 20 has them in dead last
Chambers for Phillips
Kanga for Diedhiou
Willock & El Ghazi for Grant & Bowler
Wintle & JWE out
Davies & Bagan back in (for now)
Tsunoda?
Seems like a small upgrade on paper. The new #8 will be crucial.
I think we’ll be in the 9th-12th bracket
Not a lot apparently - the fans are angry at the owners who have apparently spent serious money at Udinese, while, largely ignoring Watford. They've also put ten per cent of the club on sale to fans - I believe they're saying that any proceeds will go towards transfers which tends to suggest they aren't going to put their hands in their pockets for their British club.Whats going on at Watford?!
Not The Top 20 has them in dead last
Screenshot 2024-08-05 095434.jpgWhat’s going on at Watford?!
“Not The Top 20” has them in dead last
This may have something to do with it. On the 23rd December last season they were in 7th. Their form over the second half of the season was woeful. Wins apart, the rest of our stats over the same period were dismal. It's maybe no surprise that the teams that fared poorly over the last half of last season are the teams predicted to struggle.
I'm hoping Chambers will be a decent on upgrade on Phillips, who I didn't rate.
Although he could be anything, I'm hoping Kanga will be a significant upgrade on Diedhiou, who was poor.
On paper, Willock and El Ghazi should be an upgrade on Grant and Bowler, but they'll have recapture their form of a few years ago for that to be the case.
Thing is, as I've said earlier in the thread, I reckon the side could improve quite significantly on last season's performances but still finish no higher in the table, as last season's finishing position was a false one in my opinion.
Diediou really had no impact on our season.
We are still likely to go into next season with Miete up front and a very similar midfield.
Ramsey and Robinson being back and staying fit plus a few of our youngsters breaking through and being given game time plus a change in style is what gives me optimism that things could be better this season. When I mean better I mean entertainment wise.
I also think we will struggle to equal last years position.
Where did they say we would finish last year ?
Yes I think you finish in your true position at the end of the season, once every game has been completed home and away and teams aren't lucky or unlucky, other than terrible injuries or points deductions.
The stats may look odd, but we finished twelfth based on great deadball goals and late goals as we played to the end and had lots of attacking players on the bench who came on and made a difference.
I'm still optimistic about this season, but I'm concerned about the strikers especially now Davies is injured.
The start is also a bit of a worry, Let's imagine a bad game at home to Sunderland with a loss, followed by a stuffing at Burnley, we'd feel the pressure against the Jack's third game in, a loss there and a lot of fans would be calling for Bulut's head already.
I don't think it will happen but you can easily see how it could.
Hopefully, it's the other way around and they've lost to Boro and Preston already!
Just had look the new Manager has signed ten players from all over the place, so probably a factor, wholesale changes and the Manager has his own players or at least some input.
Since the relegation from the Premier League in 2019 under Warnock, the Racing Post’s pre-season predictions for City’s Championship finishes have been as follows (actual finishing positions in brackets):
2019/20 - 3rd (5th)
2020/21 - 3rd (8th)
2021/22 - 2nd (18th)
2022/23 - 18th (21st)
2023/24 - 22nd (12th)
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but last season really was extraordinary. The football was generally terrible, but from a stats point of view the campaign was incredible for a top-half Championship team.
Consider these facts for a moment:
City completed the 23/24 season on a dismal run of 32 league games without beating an opponent by two or more goals - the third-longest run of that kind during a single season in the club's entire history and one which stretched back more than six months to the end of October 2023. The heavy defeat at Rotherham on the final day meant no other club in the top five divisions of English football ended the 23/24 campaign on a longer run of this kind.
Bulut's boys also ended the season on a run of 33 league games without scoring three or more goals, which was a new club record for a single season. On the flip side, the Bluebirds were defeated in league games by two or more goals on 14 occasions during the same period, while no less than 9 sides managed to score three or more goals against City between the end of October and the end of the season.
City conceded a total of 70 Championship goals last season, which was the club's worst effort defensively in the second tier since 77/78, when Jimmy Andrews' team conceded 71 goals as they avoided relegation by a point. By way of a direct comparison, the team conceded 58 league goals in 22/23 as they finished 21st in the table, and 68 in 21/22 when they finished 18th.
I think I'm right in saying that the team's final goal difference of -17 was the worst of any top half side in the entire history of the second tier. Meanwhile, the team finished bottom of the league in terms of goals scored from open play, but top of the league in terms of goals scored from set-pieces.
It was a freak season in many respects. That's why I (and some of the pundits) believe City could improve in terms of performances and key indicators this season and yet still finish in the bottom half.
Weve still got our loans to come. Think we can knock the playoff door personally
Bulut was saying this week he didn't expect to sign more than one more loan player after Kanga.
I doubt we will use our full 5 loans (in match day squad) allowance this summer.
Yes, absolutely correct. In fact, only 5 top half teams have had a worse goal difference in the history of the football league. Colchester hold the record with a GD of -21 despite a 10th place finish in 1951/52 and hold the worst ever record for a third tier side.
We hold the record in the second tier.
Any guesses which team holds the record in the top division?
Another one. This time the supercomputers are coming for us!
After 10,000 simulations, computer says no.
24th
������������������������ ����������������������: 2024-25 Opta Projections ��
championship-predictions-opta-supercomputer-august-2024-2048x1317.jpg
For last season, they had us in 19th. QPR last. Boro top. And Swansea in 4th!
Let's hope they're wrong again! Very wrong.
(goddamnit I still can't get image sizes to work properly on here after over a decade - they have us finishing last)
Image link here (for bigger size): https://theanalyst.com/wp-content/up...2048x1317.jpeg
Re: The bookies have us finishing 20th ?
Interesting fairly accurate indicator except for 21/22 and 23/24.
If Bulut can defy the racing post plus 10 again that would be good
Jesus that one is all over the shop.Another one. This time the supercomputers are coming for us!
After 10,000 simulations, computer says no.
24th
������������������������ ����������������������: 2024-25 Opta Projections ��
championship-predictions-opta-supercomputer-august-2024-2048x1317.jpg
For last season, they had us in 19th. QPR last. Boro top. And Swansea in 4th!
Let's hope they're wrong again! Very wrong.
(goddamnit I still can't get image sizes to work properly on here after over a decade - they have us finishing last)
Image link here (for bigger size): https://theanalyst.com/wp-content/up...2048x1317.jpeg
Odd stats agreed, let's see what happens with some better players, I'm hoping he's still looking for Strikers, as we are still not sure on Kanga and although Robinson says he's at his best he's not usually that prolific, but a change in midfield and out wide might make a big difference, but not for a while as the new payers aren't match fit and ready.
Ramsey and O'Dowda are fit though, I'm a fan of those in case you weren't aware
He did, maybe the injured three will allow him one or two more loans that he was expecting to get, or will we rely on youth?
Perhaps the issues with loans are the fees involved and we've reached our spending limit to stay within financial regulations which I'd be amazed to find we haven't already breached
Injuries are part and parcel of the game. Thats why clubs have 20+ man squads plus younger pros.
Not ideal getting 3 injuries of 2-4 months each before a ball is even kicked this season, but apart from Collins they were not likely to be in Buluts starting XI. Collins, maybe, but after a good start here the jury is out on him and O Dowda may have been preffered at LB anyway.
Championship clubs cant afford to carry massive squads, so its an opportunity for some youngsters to fill the bench and maybe get an opportunity earlier in the season they wouldnt have otherwise got. Could be the making of one or two of them, who knows.
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