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Does anyone think rolling over and giving Putin exactly what he's asking for is going to make Europe a safer place in the long run?
I think the short and easy answer to that is No.
However, there are several factors at play.
Firstly (and we don't know how it will end anyway) I don't think he is getting everything he wanted. He wanted all of Ukraine or a puppet govt there. There's no reason to think he will get that. That said, he will get most of what he wanted and by violent means. Clearly not a good thing.
Secondly, he is currently at war. Long term things matter, but are also unknown. Short term reality also counts and 200,000 are dead. Europe's two largest countries are at war that will effectively never end as nuclear powers don't really lose wars. The west is unprepared to do what it takes for Ukraine to decisively win and we are also unprepared for that scenario and what a wounded Russia would do next.
Finally, this is how wars do end. Territorial disputes never really end with the pre-war borders in place, unfortunately. I don't mean that in a blaze manner, I just mean thats the real politik. How else will it end? And if it doesn't how much is Europe prepared to put up with? The war is having a very serious impact on domestic policies, particularly in Germany via the cost of energy as they are reliant on Russia for it.
Personally I'm open minded on it. But Ukraine has to be on board. Maybe not Zelensky, but the body of the people do. If Ukrainians arent then as soon as the war ends, it starts again as nationalists will understandably want to regain the land lost.
It's a mess, although I think it's less of a mess than at any point in the last two years
there was some interesting speculation on the radio the other day, saying that Trump is steaming in gung-ho because he desperately wants a Nobel peace prize - because Obama got one
This is what the late Richard Feynman thoughts regarding honours were when he was awarded a Nobel Prize:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zITgl5z9pR0
Indeed, although that's another topic of course and we await to see what happens there.
Personally though, I am cautiously optimistic. But then I'm not Ukrainian.
But yeah, in my mind either it goes on forever or it ends something like what is being talked about unfortunately
Trump would deserve one?
I suppose given the mixed bag of people and organisations that have been given the award, boosting Trump's ego in that way would not be so strange.
If Teddy Rooseveldt, Menachim Begin and Henry Kissinger can all get one - it shows what a cheap 'prize' it can be.
'Murderers and mass murderers for peace'?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rize_laureates
If Trump does get a peace deal with Putin (we know the adult in that negotiation), it seems it will be without the Ukrainians having any meaningful input or role. A deal will be done to them.
Their alternative is to continue to beg Trump for more arms (I see Netanyahu doesn't have to beg) and in return the US will walk away with half a trillion dollars worth or rare earth metals.
'The Art of the Deal'
Obama got it for: "his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples."
Eh?
Yeah I'll think we are on the same page about the value of that prize! If he did help achieve peace though that is probably more worthy than Obamas one.
But yes, it does all come down to the terms of it all.
I'm just not sure what a viable alternative is? I guess just keeping on as is, but I don't think that's sustainable.
Ukraine has to be involved. I suppose I can ultimately see an election there based around peace+loss of some land or war (and still loss of the land).
Interesting reading the statement on Obamas Nobel peace prize actually.
I think he was a good president and one that America needed. I also think he was good on the global stage but the reasons for a peace prize are a bit shaky
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/pe...press-release/
The biggest concern after Putin probably being able to dig in and retain all or the major part of Ukraine currently occupied is what happen next: the US will be reluctant to commit troops to maintain the line, European countries are heavily divided in their perspectives of the situation and it's very unlikely that rump Ukraine will be allowed become a member of NATO and any peace agreement could be violated by Putin at any time in the future, especially when he detects weakness in his enemies and when his armed forces are replenished.
Warmongers are apoplectic that OMB is doing everything he can to end this war.
Maybe up to one million lives lost so far, and how many injured? who knows!!!, coupled with the destruction in mostly Ukraine but also in Russia I'd like peace before anything at this point, WW2 has given insight that land rearrangement can take place in the future years, for me the killing stops first and foremost, seeing those who will never lose a son or daughter to this or any war being bullish about fighting on makes me sick, i wouldn't mind hedging that Mothers and Fathers of Ukrainian children yet to be sent to the meat grinder are welcoming potential peace in preference to acting as a proxy army for America and their allies conducting the proceedings from far away. But if you want your point answered, no I wouldn't be happy about Putin invading and everything that's followed and inc. land being handed over, I'm all ears to how this can end realistically, Putin isn't just going to put the tools away and retreat is he?.
And if he gets given a bit of Ukraine are you confident that ends it for good? If Russia walks away with Ukrainian territory and sanctions drop off, where is the deterrent for future action by them or others? I am trump will give it some big bravado 'dont you dare do it again..' but the actions suggest otherwise.