I don't know what part of the post suggests I think its a given we'll win to the extent I'd put a large bet on? Just pointing out what contributes to Wales being slight favourites
Even if you ignore half of their form, their home form is... fine. Statement draws against England (already qualified) & Italy (didn't make the last WC) aside they've lost comfortably to Georgia & Azerbaijan, also lost to Bulgaria and only beat Latvia & Faroe Islands by a goal
It'll be a tough game, no doubt, and I think we could lose, but I also don't think its a shock we're favourites