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Or do you think it's nailed on, no chance of survival etc?
I think we're gone. The vibes coming from the club and the stench of our performances don't inspire an ounce of confidence.
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I think other results tomorrow is key as the last 3 games we could scrape some points together I think but away at Sheff Utd is more or less a write off so if results go against us it will physcologically be a long way back if we are 2 wins adrift with 3 games to go
Ironically we need Luton to win at Derby (and go above us) don't we?Originally Posted by TheBirchgrovePub
I don't think it matters anyway but in theory.
Like a lot of fans I've tended to be a bit pessimistic ahead of crucial periods in our history, possibly as a safety net for potential disappointment, but this is different, we're going down and judging how other teams are playing I think we will end up bottom.
With Riza no, he's thrown the towel in the ring.
Historically, we are at our most dangerous when all 'hope' is gone.
So might it be a Good Friday?
Another 4 defeats, bottom of the league is calling
At least it won't be last day heartache.
I'd be astonished if we didn't finish bottom.
As above, tomorrow is key. If Derby beat Luton well need a minimum of 4 points to stay up and even then that would involve Derby, Hull or Portsmouth losing all their remaining games. Given that Derby will play Hull and Hull play Portsmouth, thats impossible. So a Derby win tomorrow and wed in all likelihood need a minimum of 6 points to stay up.
On a more positive note, weve got more points than Man Utd and Tottenham.
No. We had a chance still 3 to 4 games ago. Keeping Riza is leaving us with little or no hope.
I think the bookies have us at 1-2. Id say that was reasonable if we appointed half decent coaching staff and management for the last 4.
Leaving Riza in charge is completely negligent.
We need 3 wins. There is an outside chance we nick a one off game but we are not suddenly winning 3 out of 4.
We are down.
We may finish bottom. We are getting more hopeless game by game.
according to the opta 10000 game simulations we have about a 30% chance of staying up.
That feels about right to me, more likely than not that we are going down, but not time to give up hope yet, and there could be big swings with one or two favourable results.
Yes and that's 6 points as an absolute minimum if absolutely everything else goes in our favour.
Zero chance.
Of course there's hope. Derby lose and we win and it all looks different. We've only lost 1 in 5, we just need a goal to go in off someone's arse and somehow keep a clean sheet which, although it doesn't feel likely, is entirely possible
We can definitely still stay up - will we? I don't think so and I'm starting to accept that, after Stoke last week I was desperately thinking of ways we could do it on as least points as possible etc, but realistically we'd need I think another 7 points (at least) and I don't understand how we are going to do that.
After Luton I still had hope, when we beat Blackburn the other week I thought we'd turned a page and we're staying up comfortably, however teams around us keep winning and we keep losing 'the 6 pointers'
After Stoke last week and the atmosphere, the emotion myself and fans were showing, I think we all knew that was the nail in the coffin.
Happy to be proven wrong, and knowing how Cardiff are we'll end up beating Sheffield UTD 3-0 or something, lose to Oxford home, Draw against WBA then beat Norwich 91st minute to stay up by a point or something...
Opta think we have a 68% chance of relegation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football...s/c89gekzz1vxo
Think we'll get 1 more point and finish bottom.
Time for a clear out start with Dalman and Choo.
Yeah I think we'll nick a point from Oxford. Only because they would also be happy with that and would assure their safety.
I've been saying for months that I believe we'll stay up by a very narrow margin, but now I'd say the bookies' odds of 1/2 on relegation are about right - we still have a chance, but it's looking far more likely we'll be relegated.
I read earlier today that City have won fewer games than any other Championship side since Riza was given the job on a permanent basis. Not sure if that's true or not, but it probably is.
I've had a recurring thought since pre-Christmas that we'll stay up on the last day with a late goal at Norwich, if we aren't relegated before then I think we'll somehow manage to pull it off. Staying in the fight until then however is looking a very very tall order however, going to have to get at least 4 points and hope that Stoke and Derby haven't picked up enough points to play out a draw for survival, or Hull go on a disaster of a run in.
I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if we just reeled off 3 wins in a row and drew the other, knowing what the City are like, expect the unexpected and all that.
From memory in fairness to yourself you probably predicted city fairly well. Ie keeping about a point a game.
That's often enough to stay up and without derby picking up so much and winning 5 in 7 or whatever it is it was looking like we'd have enough.
I don't think you thought derby would do this and even after their unbelievable run they are only what 1 point above us?
While only having to play Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland and Boro once.
In fact whilst I agree we are done this season. It is astonishing despite the 1 point from 7 games start. Despite riza ramblings and so many bad spells. Despite not winning pretty much every "must win" game for months. Despite everyone else picking up. Despite the hilarious player of the season awards list.
Despite ALL of that we sit just the 1 point from safety with 4 games to go.
Astonishing.
No, I didn't think Derby would do so well, mainly because they had a load of long-term injuries to contend with. Whatever happens now, Eustace has done a great job under the circumstances.
I've also been surprised by Oxford's recent resurgence - three wins in five games against reasonable opposition (although you know my feelings on the quality of the Championship this season...). They look almost safe now, which is a decent achievement given their resources.
We will beat Sheffield United by a late, late goal, thus giving us fans great hope and optimism, that we can in fact avoid the drop. Only to then lose our last three games. That is the Cardiff City way of doing things. Sadly, I am 100% convinced we are going down.
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