Runcorn by election.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I am not convinced it's as breathtaking as you think. We have already seen an association with the American right/trump costing votes in Germany and elections in Canada and Australia.

Farage and Reform are already leaning hard into phoney doge and dei narratives and will doubtlessly continue to be trump-aligned until the bitter end. I actually think the prospect of marmite pantomime villain Farage becoming PM might be the only thing that can save Labour at the next election although some kind of LD/LAB coalition certainly looks more likely right now.

The votes for a Lib lab coalition do not add up

Unless Labour get about ten percent more than they have the only coalition will be between reform and the Tories

Starmer has had it I would think

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The problem is, who will replace him.

The dearth of suitable candidates for the leaders job in either main party is far worse than it has ever been since I began to have an understanding of politics in the sixties.

Perhaps with the exception of Andy Burnham, but he is not an MP at present.

I am not sure there is a suitable Tory, with the possible exception of Tom Tughendat

He's a good guy

I will never vote Tory but like Major or Clarke or Howe or Hurd they would be a million miles preferable to Farage

[Heathblue]

Someone is getting worried about next year's Sender election!

It's just a "dog whistle" issue isn't it ?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The complacency in the final paragraph here is breathtaking.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg1rgr25e7o

As is the assumption that voters will return to Labour in a general election where Prime Minister Farage is a realistic prospect.

There’s no way I’d vote Farage, but, based on their record so far, there’s no way I’ll be voting Labour either.

Meanwhile Keir “I get it” Starmer is saying there’ll be no change of policy regarding cold weather payments and benefit cuts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0xee5krnno

If come the next election it's clear that Labour are sunk and a vote for them will be a waste of time then I will vote green or liberal

If Starmer and his gang don't alter course then they don't deserve any support at all

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Someone is getting worried about next year's Sender election!

I would rather a Plaid Labour Coaltion ......on 48 percent of the vote .......tgan a Reform Tory one on 38 percent ......which is what that sort of vote shares gives

I am surprised the Labour vote is as high as 18 percent given the complete lack of charisma and decent policy since Carwyn Jones stepped down

I never thought I would say this but maybe Plaid can help keep farage and his mob from the door until Labour stop their seemingly terminal decline

[Eric Cartman]

The votes for a Lib lab coalition do not add up

Unless Labour get about ten percent more than they have the only coalition will be between reform and the Tories

Starmer has had it I would think

Try reading the entire paragraph. IMO There is a pretty strong chance that Farage will be like political marmite and push the country into what is essentially a standoff between having Farage as PM and having anybody else. The odds reflect that (labour and reform roughly equal likelihood to gain most seats) whilst the current polling doesn't.

[Eric Cartman]

If come the next election it's clear that Labour are sunk and a vote for them will be a waste of time then I will vote green or liberal

If Starmer and his gang don't alter course then they don't deserve any support at all

What course should they choose?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Try reading the entire paragraph. IMO There is a pretty strong chance that Farage will be like political marmite and push the country into what is essentially a standoff between having Farage as PM and having anybody else. The odds reflect that (labour and reform roughly equal likelihood to gain most seats) whilst the current polling doesn't.

I think that unless Labour get rid of starmer and the bulk of his team we are walking towards a right wing nightmare

Even then the best we can hope for is a Labour coalition with the liberals and others

Anything else is living in fantasy land

It may even be too late

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

What course should they choose?

Middle ground

They are acting like Tories at the moment which is a waste of time

Reeves and Starmer are toxic

Both need to be binned pronto

[Dorcus]

What course should they choose?

A major swerve to the left

[Eric Cartman]

Middle ground

They are acting like Tories at the moment which is a waste of time

Reeves and Starmer are toxic

Both need to be binned pronto

Respectfully Sludge, that doesn't mean anything. I keep seeing 'labour needs to get back to being labour', that is going to mean different things to different people so is essentially just carping.

I refuse to go along with the current Labour narrative of 'wfa changes came up a lot on the doorstep so we must cancel it', either it's right or it's wrong and for me welfare is supposed to be targeted not universal to be effective and cost-effective.

[Eric Cartman]

A major swerve to the left

I would agree with that, I heard Farage talking about water re-nationalisation. Do I think for a second he has any intention of doing it? No, but he knows its popular and if we reach the next election with labour actively arguing against popular policies, they are likely done for.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Respectfully Sludge, that doesn't mean anything. I keep seeing 'labour needs to get back to being labour', that is going to mean different things to different people so is essentially just carping.

I refuse to go along with the current Labour narrative of 'wfa changes came up a lot on the doorstep so we must cancel it', either it's right or it's wrong and for me welfare is supposed to be targeted not universal to be effective and cost-effective.

Labour have not been battered in the recent local elections because of a tightening of welfare benefits

It's clearly been an issue for some but the problems go a lot deeper than that

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

A major swerve to the left

I think heading left may soon be the only option

If that increases the current labour share above reform that will enable them to govern in a coalition with the smaller parties

But if he carries on as he is going to sink as even the core vote will collapse

It's embarrassing that labour ministers and commentators are in denial about all this

There's a huge chunk of labour Mps who are now openly criticising Starmer

Gender politics he can roll with , a lot of people can accept all the singing and dancing there

But labour are sinking

Jackie Porn Film Smith is wittering on now about it all without facing the elephant in the room ......

Get rid of starmer and his creepy cabinet

[Dorcus]

I think heading left may soon be the only option

If that increases the current labour share above reform that will enable them to govern in a coalition with the smaller parties

But if he carries on as he is going to sink as even the core vote will collapse

It's embarrassing that labour ministers and commentators are in denial about all this

There's a huge chunk of labour Mps who are now openly criticising Starmer

Gender politics he can roll with , a lot of people can accept all the singing and dancing there

But labour are sinking

Jackie Porn Film Smith is wittering on now about it all without facing the elephant in the room ......

Get rid of starmer and his creepy cabinet

Jackie had a great pair of boobs

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Jackie had a great pair of boobs

Maybe that's why she lost her seat ?

[Dorcus]

Maybe that's why she lost her seat ?

I think it's maybe why she lost her virginity!

[Rjk]

I think heading left may soon be the only option

If that increases the current labour share above reform that will enable them to govern in a coalition with the smaller parties

But if he carries on as he is going to sink as even the core vote will collapse

It's embarrassing that labour ministers and commentators are in denial about all this

There's a huge chunk of labour Mps who are now openly criticising Starmer

Gender politics he can roll with , a lot of people can accept all the singing and dancing there

But labour are sinking

Jackie Porn Film Smith is wittering on now about it all without facing the elephant in the room ......

Get rid of starmer and his creepy cabinet

Labour arent popular at the moment, but then for the Westminster elections it makes little difference for now they have a huge yes shallow majority - it will get eroded but not to the point they cannot function.

If in the next 4 years the economy improves and people are feeling more comfortable then they will point to that and probably do well.
If we are still scraping along the bottom they'll have to fight the election on at least we aren't the other lot, which is a risky strategy, but would probably be the only think left to them at that point.

[Wales-Bales]

Labour arent popular at the moment, but then for the Westminster elections it makes little difference for now they have a huge yes shallow majority - it will get eroded but not to the point they cannot function.

If in the next 4 years the economy improves and people are feeling more comfortable then they will point to that and probably do well.
If we are still scraping along the bottom they'll have to fight the election on at least we aren't the other lot, which is a risky strategy, but would probably be the only think left to them at that point.

You completely missed out Option C.

[Rjk]

Jackie had a great pair of boobs

I can't say Ive even noticed that myself.

Hers was one of the strangest outcomes from the expenses scandal. Some MPs claimed thousands for duck houses etc and toughed it out. Her Husband spend like £10 on 2 adult movies which were part of her phone bill and it led to her losing her position, one of the great offices of state.
If they were Disney movies instead of porn would she have kept her job? I think probably yes.

If it happened today and it was someone like Boris Johnson then I think it would be like water off a duck's back.

[Rjk]

You completely missed out Option C.

which is?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Labour arent popular at the moment, but then for the Westminster elections it makes little difference for now they have a huge yes shallow majority - it will get eroded but not to the point they cannot function.

If in the next 4 years the economy improves and people are feeling more comfortable then they will point to that and probably do well.
If we are still scraping along the bottom they'll have to fight the election on at least we aren't the other lot, which is a risky strategy, but would probably be the only think left to them at that point.

That's exactly the sort of displacement that will lead to a reform or reform tory victory at the next election

Starmer is having his poll tax moment , already which is a shame but he's just not up to the job and he's got to be replaced as soon as possible

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

which is?

Get rid of starmer and his mates

[Rjk]

Get rid of starmer and his mates

thats only happening at a general election

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

thats only happening at a general election

Not if he faces a rebellion over a certain absolute wipe out

The complete slaughter of Welsh Labour next may will be his nemesis