Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly by-election

[Dorcus]

That cafe that made a thing of welcoming Farage and then became a focal point for a far-right 'rally', that ended up being 4 people ,with one in a balaclava and one on a mobility scooter , may have to quickly do some PR work too.

Big result for Plaid on a big turnout but Reform are a one policy party and were campaigning in an area with little migration and a strong pro-Ukraine presence (that they themselves stoked). They will do better in other areas unfortunately.

I think there will be a strong anti-Reform vote everywhere. This vote was as much anti-Labour sentiment as anything pro Reform. The importance here is that it shows Reform can be stopped in its tracks.

[JamesWales]

Let the mop up begin. Labour try to convince themselves and everyone else that their performance isnt indicative of wider problems, Reform push the narrative that this was a big step and they absolutely categorically definitely werent expecting to win and the tories try and convince the world that they still exist. Oh and lib dems and greens have to grapple with the idea that their national polling can be blown over by the breeze of tactical voting. More delusion to come.

This is the most sensible analysis!

First and foremost, even though this was expected, the scale of the win is remarkable, and it ends a run of Labour victories stretching back more than a hundred years. Genuinely historic. Obviously the Welsh valleys isn't the same as the UK's industrial heartlands (cos of the presence of Plaid) but Labour will be very worried. Their hope will be that the country wants to give them a kicking and seeing it done pierces the boil a little.

Reform will need to take stock of how they get past the quarter to a third of the vote they seem to be polling. They probably need to reflect on their messaging in communities where immigration isn't very high and they need a better message.

I think like most I have mixed opinions on Plaid, but the candidate was exceptional. He came across very well, and there was very little to find objectionable about him, which is rarely the case. Looking at things purely as how an MS will do, I think he was the standout candidate by a mile.

Lib Dems and Greens very low, but not much history in that area, and in reality people probably lent their votes.

Tories. Absolutely ridiculous. The candidate was very poor too, and fine, it's not a Tory area, but they are polling figures that very minor parties get.

Going forward: Plaid will be under pressure now to not support Labour, which will be hard as not supporting their budget will bring accusations that they are reckless. Supporting it suggests they are propping up and unpopular Labour party.

[PontBlue]

The opening part of Lindsay Whittle's victory speech was very classy. It's a shame that element of it hasn't been included in online videos of it.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The opening part of Lindsay Whittle's victory speech was very classy. It's a shame that element of it hasn't been included in online videos of it.

At least he didn't mention the bloody rugby like he did last night , I forgave him but it was cringe

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

This is the most sensible analysis!

First and foremost, even though this was expected, the scale of the win is remarkable, and it ends a run of Labour victories stretching back more than a hundred years. Genuinely historic. Obviously the Welsh valleys isn't the same as the UK's industrial heartlands (cos of the presence of Plaid) but Labour will be very worried. Their hope will be that the country wants to give them a kicking and seeing it done pierces the boil a little.

Reform will need to take stock of how they get past the quarter to a third of the vote they seem to be polling. They probably need to reflect on their messaging in communities where immigration isn't very high and they need a better message.

I think like most I have mixed opinions on Plaid, but the candidate was exceptional. He came across very well, and there was very little to find objectionable about him, which is rarely the case. Looking at things purely as how an MS will do, I think he was the standout candidate by a mile.

Lib Dems and Greens very low, but not much history in that area, and in reality people probably lent their votes.

Tories. Absolutely ridiculous. The candidate was very poor too, and fine, it's not a Tory area, but they are polling figures that very minor parties get.

Going forward: Plaid will be under pressure now to not support Labour, which will be hard as not supporting their budget will bring accusations that they are reckless. Supporting it suggests they are propping up and unpopular Labour party.

This is a right slap for your boys and farage

It was a straight hit given the hopeless labour showing and the dreadful tory vote and reform lost

It was a fantastic win all round

If labour are finished then there is an alternative

[PontBlue]

At least he didn't mention the bloody rugby like he did last night , I forgave him but it was cringe

That's the speech I was referring to. His tribute to Hefin David showed the mark of the man.

[Wales-Bales]

Full results

PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

Excellent news

It looks like the Tories voted for Reform and the Labour vote was split between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

[Dorcus]

It looks like the Tories voted for Reform and the Labour vote was split between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

That makes sense but Reform cannot count on a majority of Tories voting for them in the South East of the UK. Libs and Greens will pick up votes there.

Reform's best hope is for picking up disgruntled Labour and Tory votes in the Midlands and North but even there tactical voting will provide stiff opposition.

[goats]

At least he didn't mention the bloody rugby like he did last night , I forgave him but it was cringe

Like scoring the winning try against the all blacks…..jeez how cringey was that. We all love rugby right?

[goats]

That makes sense but Reform cannot count on a majority of Tories voting for them in the South East of the UK. Libs and Greens will pick up votes there.

Reform's best hope is for picking up disgruntled Labour and Tory votes in the Midlands and North but even there tactical voting will provide stiff opposition.

The south east is a hotbed of immigration issues, I think it’s where reform will do the best

[goats]

This is a right slap for your boys and farage

It was a straight hit given the hopeless labour showing and the dreadful tory vote and reform lost

It was a fantastic win all round

If labour are finished then there is an alternative

Not unexpected though, even James called it a few days ago? We are talking about people who have voted for Labour whatever for 100 years, they also voted to opt out of the EU like most of wales.

[Dorcus]

The south east is a hotbed of immigration issues, I think it’s where reform will do the best

No I don't thinks so. Many graduates in that area and they are not sympathetic to Reform. Look out for Tory votes for Lib Dems being significant.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Like scoring the winning try against the all blacksÂ…..jeez how cringey was that. We all love rugby right?

I was waiting for its every boys dream to play at the arms park

[Wales-Bales]

I was waiting for its every boys dream to play at the arms park

It was always Ninian Park for me, a top corner screamer from the edge of the box.

[the other bob wilson]

Welsh politics changed for ever?i believe it may be - encouraging that Reform turned out to be a damp squid.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Welsh politics changed for ever?i believe it may be - encouraging that Reform turned out to be a damp squid.

I am so happy they got done over by Plaid and the tactical voters who helped them out

We all in this together 😆

Across the uk those against reform will take heart ❤️

[Wales-Bales]

Welsh politics changed for ever?i believe it may be - encouraging that Reform turned out to be a damp squid.

No, it's still them and us., always has been and always will be.

[Heathblue]

Plaid cymru unites CCMB 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣, wouldn't vote for them but it's for the greater good, and not having to see the #1 grifter grinning on the box when I get home later this evening.