Election Prediction

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Election Prediction

Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.

I can understand the first bit of your argument but why would whether Labour got found out working with the Lib-Dems rather than a softer "understanding" lead to another election within a year? If there is a pact or something looser identified after the election what are the drivers to trigger a new election?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.

I beg to differ

People will drop the political party adherence to get the Tories out

Plenty of people who vote Labour will vote Liberal in towns like Portsmouth where a vote for Labour might be wasted

[JamesWales]

Re: Election Prediction

I beg to differ

People will drop the political party adherence to get the Tories out

Plenty of people who vote Labour will vote Liberal in towns like Portsmouth where a vote for Labour might be wasted

What difference will it make Sludge?

[jon1959]

Re: Election Prediction

Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.

I have listened to a couple of podcasts that did a serious analytical job on the local elections, and both concluded that there was a combination of more voters behaving tactically to get the Tories out, and the non-Tory parties getting into local pacts without the support or endorsement of their national organisations. That usually just came down to directing money/leaflets/posters/social media and canvassers towards the best anti-Tory outcome, not to standing down candidates.

The psephological (electoral number crunching) conclusions were that this is now happening on a bigger scale than ever before. I was convinced.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Election Prediction

I have listened to a couple of podcasts that did a serious analytical job on the local elections, and both concluded that there was a combination of more voters behaving tactically to get the Tories out, and the non-Tory parties getting into local pacts without the support or endorsement of their national organisations. That usually just came down to directing money/leaflets/posters/social media and canvassers towards the best anti-Tory outcome, not to standing down candidates.

The psephological (electoral number crunching) conclusions were that this is now happening on a bigger scale than ever before. I was convinced.

Pretty much the same thing though - an 'informal agreement' canvassing/not canvassing in certain wards. The local elections pretty much go under the political radar when you consider only 1 in 3 eligible to vote bothered to do so.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Election Prediction

I can understand the first bit of your argument but why would whether Labour got found out working with the Lib-Dems rather than a softer "understanding" lead to another election within a year? If there is a pact or something looser identified after the election what are the drivers to trigger a new election?

I just think it would make him look weak - having to rely on an election 'stitch up' to get to power. The Lib Dems would want something out of it, and that sort of thing never goes down with the electorate - whether you voted Labour or conservative.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Election Prediction

I just think it would make him look weak - having to rely on an election 'stitch up' to get to power. The Lib Dems would want something out of it, and that sort of thing never goes down with the electorate - whether you voted Labour or conservative.

All those things in the scenario you paint may be true. I still can't see how any of it triggers a new election within a year though!