EU election day

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Macron

In a spot of bother I see.

How does Macron’s decision fit in with the Elite’s plan then (surely he and his party are the Elite personified?)?

[the other bob wilson]

Re: EU election day

Seems like the advance of the populist right was not as spectacular across Europe as many predicted - the centre right were the night’s big winners according to this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnddkx7redro

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: EU election day

General election in Belgium today too. One of the more interesting general political issues in Europe is about whether Belgium may split one day. The southern part (Walloonia) votes very differently to the northern part (Flanders)

It seems the "far left" have done very well in Walloonia and the "far right" have in Flanders.

The topic of a split in Belgium has been an ongoing topic for decades but it never seems to happen. The more wealthy Flemish have more in common with the Dutch (and share what is really the same language) and the poorer Walloons look more to Paris. Belgium lies on an international fault line where Germanic and Latin cultures meet, of course.

P.S. Speaking of Wallonia: The Wal/Wall/Will components of Wales, Wallonia, Cornwall, Wallachia (Romania), Will's Neck (Somerset) relate to the name Germanic tribes assigned to foreigners.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: EU election day

It is now everywhere in Europe. Violence, frustration, extremists, political uproar are on the march. Dark times ahead. There is no sugar coating it. Look at the it all in the round, as opposed to specific cases.

Sweden - the crime is rippibg through the roof in a country that barely ever used to see riots

France - a mess. They are seriously angry. Macron fals on his sword as the nasty lot are gaining traction. He only got 15% of the vote.

Belgium - been a mess for years. PM gone. Now worse

Germany - the head of German Stock Exchange has broken rank and hammered the entire political class over the weekend. Unprecedented. Scholz is a total mess. AFD are nobody to be worried about yet as the main parties can come together and then shut them out. But they their trend is up, and the more AfD are shut down the more those on the edges wil move towards them (a la Trump supporters).

Denmark - Prime Minister got attacked last week in an assault that made the political class shocked but supported her. Denmark is a peaceful country and often free of any rage like this

Slovakia - PM shot

Portugal - Chego, the hard rights, hit 35% in a three way election recently. A huge jump from prior support levels

Netherlands - they think there is a chance of the hard right gaining control there. Trend is clearly up.

Austria - although a 35% vote capture it is classed as a “win” in their existing system

Czechs - moving harder to the right

Italy - already on the hard right, although nothing scary there just yet

Now all of the above can be dismissed as “temporary” but that would be stupidity. Left blames Right, Right blames Left (press ignore). Some politicians will ignore it, try and “do deals” and carry on regardless. Anyone in the intelligence services, if presented with the above Bayesian data, and the above rising patterns, would think “We need to re-assess what we are giving the people, they are unhappy”. Clearly this is nearly everywhere.

Unfortunately we are dealing with politicians, and often they are not the brightest people, or are hobbled by money or horse-trading deals. Human nature tells me people keep repeating their mistakes and keep thinking short-term until it all breaks. Only then we will be forced to change. It is then often too late.

But our time is not unique. This situation is not unique. A view I have held since the Financial Crisis is that we are at the end of an 80-100 year clearly defined cycle, which has repeated for centuries:

1. Economic cycle: debt and deficit levels are too high. Unsustainable in US, UK and Europe. Currency collapse will come (dollar, then others), and Digital Currency, Gold, and the currencies used by China and Russia will become dominant

2. War cycle: The dominant world power, by military or trade (previously UK, replaced by USA) exhausts itself trying to protect its advantages. A challenger power emerges (China, or China-Russia combined with Iran). Existing power doesn’t like it. Real war, world war or proxy wars will resolve the winner. This adds to .1 and often causes a reset of currency systems. Last time sterling / UK was the power. As a result of WWII the dollar/US has been thr power. Before UK it was France, Spain, Netherlands and Portugal who were dominant for 80-100 years.

3. Political cycle. At these times the centre ground splits, and extremes emerge. In the 1920s-1930s it was Nazis and Communists. Reason is because if increasing debt and less government spending, less to satisfy everyone. Unhappy people get fed up of mainstream parties and it splinters, or mainstream parties elect extremist leaders from hard left or hard right.This can aggravate .2 until the battles are settled, currency systems reset and wr go again.

We have been in this cycle of combined volatility in the US, Europe and UK since the GFC, and preassures building up. Which way we go is unpredictable but we have been in this zone since 2010 (think Greek crisis, as well as bank crisis).

US politics, the mess here, and everything happening above in Europe are all alarm bells that the economic cycle, war cycle and political cycle is combining to tighten the noose. The rubber band is being stretched and it is getting close to snapping point. How long before we snap is unknown, but it ain’t far away, and I suspect in the next four years we will see some dark events in Europe. It is a terrible place to be, but politicians in the US, UK and Europe have utterly failed collectively.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: EU election day

Seems like the advance of the populist right was not as spectacular across Europe as many predicted - the centre right were the night’s big winners according to this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnddkx7redro

All shades of red and blue are right wing.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: EU election day

It is now everywhere in Europe. Violence, frustration, extremists, political uproar are on the march. Dark times ahead. There is no sugar coating it. Look at the it all in the round, as opposed to specific cases.

Sweden - the crime is rippibg through the roof in a country that barely ever used to see riots

France - a mess. They are seriously angry. Macron fals on his sword as the nasty lot are gaining traction. He only got 15% of the vote.

Belgium - been a mess for years. PM gone. Now worse

Germany - the head of German Stock Exchange has broken rank and hammered the entire political class over the weekend. Unprecedented. Scholz is a total mess. AFD are nobody to be worried about yet as the main parties can come together and then shut them out. But they their trend is up, and the more AfD are shut down the more those on the edges wil move towards them (a la Trump supporters).

Denmark - Prime Minister got attacked last week in an assault that made the political class shocked but supported her. Denmark is a peaceful country and often free of any rage like this

Slovakia - PM shot

Portugal - Chego, the hard rights, hit 35% in a three way election recently. A huge jump from prior support levels

Netherlands - they think there is a chance of the hard right gaining control there. Trend is clearly up.

Austria - although a 35% vote capture it is classed as a “win” in their existing system

Czechs - moving harder to the right

Italy - already on the hard right, although nothing scary there just yet

Now all of the above can be dismissed as “temporary” but that would be stupidity. Left blames Right, Right blames Left (press ignore). Some politicians will ignore it, try and “do deals” and carry on regardless. Anyone in the intelligence services, if presented with the above Bayesian data, and the above rising patterns, would think “We need to re-assess what we are giving the people, they are unhappy”. Clearly this is nearly everywhere.

Unfortunately we are dealing with politicians, and often they are not the brightest people, or are hobbled by money or horse-trading deals. Human nature tells me people keep repeating their mistakes and keep thinking short-term until it all breaks. Only then we will be forced to change. It is then often too late.

But our time is not unique. This situation is not unique. A view I have held since the Financial Crisis is that we are at the end of an 80-100 year clearly defined cycle, which has repeated for centuries:

1. Economic cycle: debt and deficit levels are too high. Unsustainable in US, UK and Europe. Currency collapse will come (dollar, then others), and Digital Currency, Gold, and the currencies used by China and Russia will become dominant

2. War cycle: The dominant world power, by military or trade (previously UK, replaced by USA) exhausts itself trying to protect its advantages. A challenger power emerges (China, or China-Russia combined with Iran). Existing power doesn’t like it. Real war, world war or proxy wars will resolve the winner. This adds to .1 and often causes a reset of currency systems. Last time sterling / UK was the power. As a result of WWII the dollar/US has been thr power. Before UK it was France, Spain, Netherlands and Portugal who were dominant for 80-100 years.

3. Political cycle. At these times the centre ground splits, and extremes emerge. In the 1920s-1930s it was Nazis and Communists. Reason is because if increasing debt and less government spending, less to satisfy everyone. Unhappy people get fed up of mainstream parties and it splinters, or mainstream parties elect extremist leaders from hard left or hard right.This can aggravate .2 until the battles are settled, currency systems reset and wr go again.

We have been in this cycle of combined volatility in the US, Europe and UK since the GFC, and preassures building up. Which way we go is unpredictable but we have been in this zone since 2010 (think Greek crisis, as well as bank crisis).

US politics, the mess here, and everything happening above in Europe are all alarm bells that the economic cycle, war cycle and political cycle is combining to tighten the noose. The rubber band is being stretched and it is getting close to snapping point. How long before we snap is unknown, but it ain’t far away, and I suspect in the next four years we will see some dark events in Europe. It is a terrible place to be, but politicians in the US, UK and Europe have utterly failed collectively.

TLDR: Strauss-Howe generational theory and the Fourth Turning is already upon us.

https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rendezvous/dp/0767900464

[Keyser Soze]

Re: EU election day

TLDR: Strauss-Howe generational theory and the Fourth Turning is already upon us.

https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turnin.../dp/0767900464

Yep. Strauss and Howe wrote a great book there and for those who have the attention span for just 15 minutes and Twitter- quips, there are lot of short, bite-sized videos for them on YouTube, broken down into nice, simple, baby-sized, digestible chunks.

Strauss and Howe discuss generational theory only.

To complete the picture, read Michael Alexander’s take on Kondratiev Wave K-Cycles. He connects the link between generational theory, war, politics, economics, inflation, debt, interest rates and its effects on politics. He goes back and uses centuries of data but the book isn’t that big.

I read these two just after GFC. Hard to argue with any of it. Dynamics and interplay is obvious, it ia the timing that is harder. But where we are right now is clear. As Strauss and How argue, all post-war political institutions which have lasted 80-100 years will be challenged. They are right. UK parliament voting mechanisms being questioned. European institutions being challenged. Role of central banks questioned. NATO being challenged and questioned, plus WHO and WTO. Seems like a slow
motion car crash.