And a jump from the right

[Eric the Half a Bee]

While there's lots of stuff about Reform, it's worth pointing out that Plaid, Lib Dems, Greens all made percentage gains in this election. The combined Tory/Reform vote was lower than the Tory vote 5 years ago.

That's hardly a surprise. Young people are hardly right wing nowadays while the older generation, who would vote for the right keep dying off.

On Channel 4, just after the exit poll, some Tories were trying to make the case that, with the rise of Reform, the Tories need to focus on the political right. Now their stuck. Clearly they need to get closer to the centre. The future doesn't lie with Reform.

[PontBlue]

Re: And a jump from the right

The Tories need to do what Labour did after the last election and decide what type of party they want to be.

If they move to the right and potentially merge with Reform they'll lose support to the Lib Dems and to a lesser degree Labour. If they move back towards the centre they'll lose support to reform but may also pick up some who voted Reform out of protest and win back Lib Dem voters.

Whatever happens they can't carry on as they have been these last 8 or 9 years with all the infighting and back stabbing. They also need to clean up thgeir act and aim for honesty and decency.

[Rjk]

Re: And a jump from the right

While there's lots of stuff about Reform, it's worth pointing out that Plaid, Lib Dems, Greens all made percentage gains in this election. The combined Tory/Reform vote was lower than the Tory vote 5 years ago.

That's hardly a surprise. Young people are hardly right wing nowadays while the older generation, who would vote for the right keep dying off.

On Channel 4, just after the exit poll, some Tories were trying to make the case that, with the rise of Reform, the Tories need to focus on the political right. Now their stuck. Clearly they need to get closer to the centre. The future doesn't lie with Reform.

The recent right wing surges in Europe have been supported by a surprising number of young people - good to see that isn't replicated here - yet - that may have more to do with the pressing need to get rid of a catastrophic tory government though

[PontBlue]

Re: And a jump from the right

Also what last night has shown, despite what Andrea Ledsom said on the BBC (I think she was the one who said it), we aren't moving towards a Presidential style approach where people vote for personalities as the Tories and large sections of the Press have been slating Starmer for his supposed lack of personality.

[WJ99mobile]

Re: And a jump from the right

Are you all sure about that
Tories plus Reform if put together have more vote share than Labour on its own during a landslide.

Doesn’t sound like it

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: And a jump from the right

The recent right wing surges in Europe have been supported by a surprising number of young people - good to see that isn't replicated here - yet - that may have more to do with the pressing need to get rid of a catastrophic tory government though

I don't see that happening here, though. If you look at things like Brexit, immigration, public services, young people are very much all for rejoining the EU, freedom of movement, spending more on public services.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: And a jump from the right

Are you all sure about that
Tories plus Reform if put together have more vote share than Labour on its own during a landslide.

Doesn’t sound like it

Well, the increase in Reform's voting percentage is lower than the decrease in the Tory voting percentage.

Labour have roughly stood still in their overall vote. Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have increased their voting percentage at the expense of the Tories.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: And a jump from the right

The next election will be a Brexit-style immigration vote, a reform/Conservative slight right would win it if they could work together in some way.

Well done Starmer, let's see what you can do!

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: And a jump from the right

The next election will be a Brexit-style immigration vote, a reform/Conservative slight right would win it if they could work together in some way.

Well done Starmer, let's see what you can do!

You're assuming things will stay as they are. This election has shown a shift away from the right and I expect that to continue.

The Tories are now stuck. If they get closer to Reform they'll lose centre ground voters and Reform will lose voters to the Tories. If they move more to the centre ground they can't align too closely with Reform while Reform will gain voters.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: And a jump from the right

You're assuming things will stay as they are. This election has shown a shift away from the right and I expect that to continue.

The Tories are now stuck. If they get closer to Reform they'll lose centre ground voters and Reform will lose voters to the Tories. If they move more to the centre ground they can't align too closely with Reform while Reform will gain voters.

I don't think so, it was a let's get the Conservatives out tactical election, partly in protest at Boris saying he will close the borders and doing the opposite. When the dust settles immigration will back at the forefront unless Labour can solve the problems of an increasing population, school places, doctors' appointments, A&E, Ambulances, immigration housing in hotels and all the rest.

Farage will be a right pain in opposition and will be at their throats from day one, they'll need to have a plan or it will be a short-lived visit to number ten. I think a slight right position and a solution to immigration will be the best position, but lets wait and ee what happens.

We needed change and the Conservatives needed a battering and to get rid of a lot of useless MP's.

[JamesWales]

Re: And a jump from the right

I know that many of us view politics through the prism of "left / right" and it's a handy thing to do, but I'm really not sure that's the driving force here.

What I think we have seen is what we have seen essentially everywhere else - the sweeping out from power of COVID govts. I don't think that's per se due to their management of COVID, but more the inevitable social and economic fallout.

Let's be clear, Labour have done exceptionally well esp in terms of seats. That's the story, and on one level the only story.

Scratch the surface though and there is some takeaways!;

The turnout was very low, and I don't think any of us saw that happen. It looks like Starmer will actually have less votes in total than Corbyn did. A few seats including even people like Angela Rayner are reasonably close and there is a couple of new pressures from Independents and from Reform.

I think the Independent challenge may drain away as (hopefully through peace) Gaza becomes less of an issue. Reform likely won't though. They didn't do as well as they hoped but they support is very well spread around the country.

Big questions for Tories too. Under serious pressure in the shires from the Lib Dems and everywhere else from Reform.

Glad to see the SNP defeated - again, the driving force here likely being a desire for change rather than anything "left/right".

Again, it's a remarkable victory but I really don't think it's 1997 and it will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming years.

Good luck to them though. I hope it's the best government we've ever had.

[Citizen's Nephew]

Re: And a jump from the right

I know that many of us view politics through the prism of "left / right" and it's a handy thing to do, but I'm really not sure that's the driving force here.

What I think we have seen is what we have seen essentially everywhere else - the sweeping out from power of COVID govts. I don't think that's per se due to their management of COVID, but more the inevitable social and economic fallout.

Let's be clear, Labour have done exceptionally well esp in terms of seats. That's the story, and on one level the only story.

Scratch the surface though and there is some takeaways!;

The turnout was very low, and I don't think any of us saw that happen. It looks like Starmer will actually have less votes in total than Corbyn did. A few seats including even people like Angela Rayner are reasonably close and there is a couple of new pressures from Independents and from Reform.

I think the Independent challenge may drain away as (hopefully through peace) Gaza becomes less of an issue. Reform likely won't though. They didn't do as well as they hoped but they support is very well spread around the country.

Big questions for Tories too. Under serious pressure in the shires from the Lib Dems and everywhere else from Reform.

Glad to see the SNP defeated - again, the driving force here likely being a desire for change rather than anything "left/right".

Again, it's a remarkable victory but I really don't think it's 1997 and it will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming years.

Good luck to them though. I hope it's the best government we've ever had.

I think this is a really good summary tbh. Good post. 👍

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: And a jump from the right

I know that many of us view politics through the prism of "left / right" and it's a handy thing to do, but I'm really not sure that's the driving force here.

What I think we have seen is what we have seen essentially everywhere else - the sweeping out from power of COVID govts. I don't think that's per se due to their management of COVID, but more the inevitable social and economic fallout.

Let's be clear, Labour have done exceptionally well esp in terms of seats. That's the story, and on one level the only story.

Scratch the surface though and there is some takeaways!;

The turnout was very low, and I don't think any of us saw that happen. It looks like Starmer will actually have less votes in total than Corbyn did. A few seats including even people like Angela Rayner are reasonably close and there is a couple of new pressures from Independents and from Reform.

I think the Independent challenge may drain away as (hopefully through peace) Gaza becomes less of an issue. Reform likely won't though. They didn't do as well as they hoped but they support is very well spread around the country.

Big questions for Tories too. Under serious pressure in the shires from the Lib Dems and everywhere else from Reform.

Glad to see the SNP defeated - again, the driving force here likely being a desire for change rather than anything "left/right".

Again, it's a remarkable victory but I really don't think it's 1997 and it will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming years.

Good luck to them though. I hope it's the best government we've ever had.

Nothing to disagree with there. Labour didn't really win the election but the Tories lost it. Once again we had an election that was about getting rid of or stopping one lot.

The Reform question needs raising and sorting. I get that, to some, they represent a change from the norm, but we also have to realise that Reform probably split opinions more than the Tories. I know several people who are glad Reform didn't do as well as some were predicting. Plaid are somewhat divisive in Wales and will never get enough support to really challenge as things stand, and I see Reform in the same way. There isn't currently, and I don't believe there ever will be, enough public support for Reform for them to be a major player. Their role is primarily to get the Tories to venture further to the right. Remember the Brexit Party standing aside in the last election rather than split the Tory vote. This time they chose not to and have given the Tories a bloody nose. It's not Labour that have caused that bloody nose, it's been Reform.

The vast majority of Reform voters were disgruntled Tories or previous voters of UKIP and the likes. The Tory/Reform combined vote has gone down while the Greens, Plaid, Lib Dem vote has gone up, so this causes problems for the Tories. The temptation will be to veer more to the right to quell Reform, but in doing so will make themselves less electable, that's a certainty. If they try to make gains in the middle ground, they risk losing voters to Reform.

Liz Truss had a very right wing government with all their leading protagonists in the main positions. It disintegrated within days and the public certainly doesn't have an appetite for those politics.

In Wales, I don't see many Labour voters ditching the party to vote Reform. Like the rest of the UK, Reform votes will come from Tory and former UKIP/Brexit Party voters. I think this needs to be understood. Lib Dem, Green and Plaid voters will not vote Reform. Few Labour voters will, either. I strongly believe that, in Wales, more people will stand up and vote against the Tories and Reform if they pose a threat.

I don't think some realise that Reform are a toxic "party" to many. Whether people want change is one thing, going down that route will never appeal to the majority.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: And a jump from the right

I know that many of us view politics through the prism of "left / right" and it's a handy thing to do, but I'm really not sure that's the driving force here.

What I think we have seen is what we have seen essentially everywhere else - the sweeping out from power of COVID govts. I don't think that's per se due to their management of COVID, but more the inevitable social and economic fallout.

Let's be clear, Labour have done exceptionally well esp in terms of seats. That's the story, and on one level the only story.

Scratch the surface though and there is some takeaways!;

The turnout was very low, and I don't think any of us saw that happen. It looks like Starmer will actually have less votes in total than Corbyn did. A few seats including even people like Angela Rayner are reasonably close and there is a couple of new pressures from Independents and from Reform.

I think the Independent challenge may drain away as (hopefully through peace) Gaza becomes less of an issue. Reform likely won't though. They didn't do as well as they hoped but they support is very well spread around the country.

Big questions for Tories too. Under serious pressure in the shires from the Lib Dems and everywhere else from Reform.

Glad to see the SNP defeated - again, the driving force here likely being a desire for change rather than anything "left/right".

Again, it's a remarkable victory but I really don't think it's 1997 and it will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming years.

Good luck to them though. I hope it's the best government we've ever had.

Protest vote yesterday against tough times, people are basically blaming governments for everything, voting has become more volatile, all you have to do to win the next one, is constantly slag of the Government, people will vote for change.

What does change mean, nothing really who cares just say that and if times are tough people will vote for it.

Don't get me wrong the Conservatives deserved to lose, but nothing will change, immigration will increase and NHS, schools and the rest will get worse unless their is massive borrowing and Liz Truss-type market falls and gilt loses or tax increases.

Motorway speeds may also drop, people have died on motorways, why not make them forty?

[sneggyblubird]

Re: And a jump from the right

After a catastrophic defeat at the polls it was amusing to see all the mainstream media comforting themselves with the "just a protest vote" line to explain away the Reform success. It seems out of all the Tories that lost their seats last night only Penny Mordant understood what went wrong which can be summed up in 3 words. "WE DIDN'T LISTEN"