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As Joe Biden’s presidency enters its lame-duck phase, America’s adversaries are on an escalation course. On Wednesday, the US and Canada intercepted Russian Tu-95 and Chinese H-6 bombers in international airspace near Alaska. Concerningly, it was the first time Russian and Chinese jets were intercepted during a joint Arctic exercise.
History provides clues as to where Russian and Chinese disrespect for US redlines might lead us. Germany’s 1914 invasion of Belgium stemmed from its false confidence that Britain would not risk a world war over Belgian neutrality. Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour was premised on the assumption that the US would not commit its forces to a multi-year war in the Pacific theatre.
Biden’s perceived weakness and Trump’s unpredictability, if he wins, could encourage America’s adversaries to make similarly grave miscalculations. The risk of an accidental conflict in the lead-up to November’s elections or in their aftermath requires careful mitigation. For otherwise the world could spiral into far more desperate scenarios, including the very worst imaginable: a new world war.
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History provides clues as to where Russian and Chinese disrespect for US redlines might lead us. Germany’s 1914 invasion of Belgium stemmed from its false confidence that Britain would not risk a world war over Belgian neutrality. Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour was premised on the assumption that the US would not commit its forces to a multi-year war in the Pacific theatre.
Biden’s perceived weakness and Trump’s unpredictability, if he wins, could encourage America’s adversaries to make similarly grave miscalculations. The risk of an accidental conflict in the lead-up to November’s elections or in their aftermath requires careful mitigation. For otherwise the world could spiral into far more desperate scenarios, including the very worst imaginable: a new world war.
Report
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