The Donald Trump thread

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Trump facing imminent election defeat starts planning for the future.

I believe Maccy Dees in the states does take on those released on parole so you could be right?

[jon1959]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

If I have understood the latest polls correctly - and if the polls are accurate (!) - Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% nationally, but Trump has a lead in 5 of the 7 swing states!

Add in likely anti-Trump voter suppression, Elon Musk's 'bribery and corruption' Town Halls, and the rapid (and in some ways perverse) switch of Arab-American votes from Biden/Harris to Trump in the face of continuing funding of Gaza genocide (perverse because Trump is even worse than the Democrats on this).... and it is still 'too close to call' but probably leaning Trump.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

If I have understood the latest polls correctly - and if the polls are accurate (!) - Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% nationally, but Trump has a lead in 5 of the 7 swing states!

Add in likely anti-Trump voter suppression, Elon Musk's 'bribery and corruption' Town Halls, and the rapid (and in some ways perverse) switch of Arab-American votes from Biden/Harris to Trump in the face of continuing funding of Gaza genocide (perverse because Trump is even worse than the Democrats on this).... and it is still 'too close to call' but probably leaning Trump.

It all depends on what happens after midnight.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

If I have understood the latest polls correctly - and if the polls are accurate (!) - Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% nationally, but Trump has a lead in 5 of the 7 swing states!

Add in likely anti-Trump voter suppression, Elon Musk's 'bribery and corruption' Town Halls, and the rapid (and in some ways perverse) switch of Arab-American votes from Biden/Harris to Trump in the face of continuing funding of Gaza genocide (perverse because Trump is even worse than the Democrats on this).... and it is still 'too close to call' but probably leaning Trump.

Yep, in the last week it's flipped. Trump now wins 53 times out of 100 to Harris' 47..

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

It goes without saying that when you factor in the fact there is two weeks to go, the margin of error in polls and the fact that the election will be run once, not 100 times, it's safe to say it's as close to a 50/50 call as any of us have ever seen in our lifetimes.

[Dorcus]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Pennsylvania and Michigan are the two to watch. If Harris wins those I say she's home and hosed. Happy birthday KAmela!

[TWGL1]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1848456115295519171?s=61&t=opXYWu2ILhmySD2aRt-GNg

Trump will win it because of Gaza and Ukraine IMHO

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

The media seems to think the tide is turning in Harris’ favour somewhat in recent days - I’ll believe Trump loses when I see it, but maybe things like alluding to Liz Cheney being put in front of a firing squad and coming over as such an unpatriotic man when his strongest supporters are always playing the patriotism card are having an effect?

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Seems to have shifted slightly towards Harris, and now 51% Trump likely win on 538 to Harris' 49%.

It's ridiculously tight. I actually think Harris may win now, but that's based on very little at all really.

https://abcnews.go.com/538

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Seems to have shifted slightly towards Harris, and now 51% Trump likely win on 538 to Harris' 49%.

It's ridiculously tight. I actually think Harris may win now, but that's based on very little at all really.


https://abcnews.go.com/538

It's not about the popular vote though.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

It's not about the popular vote though.

No,I know, that site I referred to runs simulations of the Electoral College vote several times a day and Trump wins 51% of the time. Earlier in the week it was 56% or the time. Two weeks ago it was 45% of the time.

As for the popular vote, I think Harris is very likely to win that.

This is clearly an example of too much data, but it is interesting nonetheless

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

The media seems to think the tide is turning in Harris’ favour somewhat in recent days - I’ll believe Trump loses when I see it, but maybe things like alluding to Liz Cheney being put in front of a firing squad and coming over as such an unpatriotic man when his strongest supporters are always playing the patriotism card are having an effect?

I've already put a decent chunk of $$$ on it

[Dorcus]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

No,I know, that site I referred to runs simulations of the Electoral College vote several times a day and Trump wins 51% of the time. Earlier in the week it was 56% or the time. Two weeks ago it was 45% of the time.

As for the popular vote, I think Harris is very likely to win that.

This is clearly an example of too much data, but it is interesting nonetheless

I still think it'll all come down to Pennsylvania. It's key to this election. It is the Keystone state after all.

[lardy]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

I still think it'll all come down to Pennsylvania. It's key to this election. It is the Keystone state after all.

Hopefully the Puerto Ricans there vote in big numbers.

[Dorcus]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Hopefully the Puerto Ricans there vote in big numbers.

Well they know how the Trumpsters really feel about them

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Harris three points up in non battleground state Iowa according to what’s being called America’s gold standard poll.

Ordinarily, you’d say that this is a rogue poll, but, apparently, this company,doesn’t do such things - their final pre election poll has only been outside three points of the actual margin once since 2010 it seems.

https://dailyiowan.com/2024/11/02/nationally-recognized-poll-shows-harris-leading-trump-in-iowa/