The Donald Trump thread

[Heathblue]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Whatever the outcome IMO it will be contested by both sides, there will not be an inauguration in January and might take up to 6 months to settle via the Supreme Court.

[lardy]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Whatever the outcome IMO it will be contested by both sides, there will not be an inauguration in January and might take up to 6 months to settle via the Supreme Court.

Why would both sides contest it? Surely one of them will have won!

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Swung back to Trump again now overnight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

This level of analysis is actually pretty pointless even if it addictive, so I will stop looking now and make a prediction and forget about it til Tuesday night, or January 2025, whenever it is determined.

I bravely predict Trump will win by between 1 and 50 Electorial college votes. Or Harris will do the same. ☺️

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Swung back to Trump again now overnight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

This level of analysis is actually pretty pointless even if it addictive, so I will stop looking now and make a prediction and forget about it til Tuesday night, or January 2025, whenever it is determined.

I bravely predict Trump will win by between 1 and 50 Electorial college votes. Or Harris will do the same. ☺️

I'll go a step further and say the next president will win. Of course, it all depends on whether a president or paramount leader is installed.

[Heathblue]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Why would both sides contest it? Surely one of them will have won!

I'm sure the person who unpacked the Russian collusion narrative understands what i was getting at, but for clarity, R win D contest, D win R contest I think it will be very messy either way, the D run cities will have anteefa activated if Trump gets it, and the R run cities will have the pistol happy church going brigade running Amok if knee pads gets it, hopefully it will all just go tickety boo and we move on.

[delmbox]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

I'm sure the person who unpacked the Russian collusion narrative understands what i was getting at, but for clarity, R win D contest, D win R contest I think it will be very messy either way, the D run cities will have anteefa activated if Trump gets it, and the R run cities will have the pistol happy church going brigade running Amok if knee pads gets it, hopefully it will all just go tickety boo and we move on.

How come you refer to Harris as kneepads and don't refer to Trump as rapist?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

I'm sure the person who unpacked the Russian collusion narrative understands what i was getting at, but for clarity, R win D contest, D win R contest I think it will be very messy either way, the D run cities will have anteefa activated if Trump gets it, and the R run cities will have the pistol happy church going brigade running Amok if knee pads gets it, hopefully it will all just go tickety boo and we move on.

The steaks couldn't be any hotter.

[Heathblue]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

How come you refer to Harris as kneepads and don't refer to Trump as rapist?

Hi Del, my go to pisstake name for Trump on here has been Orange Man Bad or occasionally The Donald, Corbyn Dustbin, Johnson BOZO, and a few others, pretty inoffensive IMO and a lot less offensive than some of the names I and others get called on here occasionally, I've even been threatened with violence on here on one occasion. Hope that helps

[az city]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

How come you refer to Harris as kneepads and don't refer to Trump as rapist?

Simple, he's a misogynist.

[delmbox]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Hi Del, my go to pisstake name for Trump on here has been Orange Man Bad or occasionally The Donald, Corbyn Dustbin, Johnson BOZO, and a few others, pretty inoffensive IMO and a lot less offensive than some of the names I and others get called on here occasionally, I've even been threatened with violence on here on one occasion. Hope that helps

Those nicknames for Trump are very inoffensive yeah. I'd say that kneepads is a pretty grim and diminishing nickname for any woman though, let alone one who's been an Attorney General, Senator, Vice President and potentially President of the US, and I wonder if you've got daughters/granddaughters what they'd think of you referring to a woman as that, but I suspect you don't let them anywhere near seeing what you write on here.

As an aside, sorry you got threatened with violence, anyone who does that on here is a clown

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Election day!

The various final polls say..and remember that Harris can win the national popular vote and lose the Electoral College..

Trump +1
Harris +3
Harris +2
Harris +2
Trump +1
Harris +1
Dead even
Harris +4
Trump +2
Harris +1

And for each state...

Wisconsin
Trump +1
Trump +1

Pennsylvania
Trump +1
Trump +1
Harris +3

North Carolina
Trump +2
Trump +2

Nevada
Trump +3
Trump +3

Michigan
Trump +2
Trump +2

Georgia
Trump +2
Dead even

Arizona
Trump +5
Trump +5

Polls have moved in the Democrats favour yesterday, and the 538 modelling says..

Harris wins 50 times out of 100
Trump wins 49 times out of 100
Dead heat 1 time out of 100

https://abcnews.go.com/538

Aside from anything else, I have never known anything as close in my life. Admittedly most elections aren't a two-horse race but still. It is remarkable how close the polls are.

Personally I feel it won't be quite so close, but I really don't know in what direction or why I think that. I just think there is so much going on that there will be a movement in one direction. If I had to put money on it, I would put it on Harris winning. At the end of the day, people tend to vote for the status quo if it seems risky, although much less so in recent years it seems.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

Election day!

The various final polls say..and remember that Harris can win the national popular vote and lose the Electoral College..

Trump +1
Harris +3
Harris +2
Harris +2
Trump +1
Harris +1
Dead even
Harris +4
Trump +2
Harris +1

And for each state...

Wisconsin
Trump +1
Trump +1

Pennsylvania
Trump +1
Trump +1
Harris +3

North Carolina
Trump +2
Trump +2

Nevada
Trump +3
Trump +3

Michigan
Trump +2
Trump +2

Georgia
Trump +2
Dead even

Arizona
Trump +5
Trump +5

Polls have moved in the Democrats favour yesterday, and the 538 modelling says..

Harris wins 50 times out of 100
Trump wins 49 times out of 100
Dead heat 1 time out of 100

https://abcnews.go.com/538

Aside from anything else, I have never known anything as close in my life. Admittedly most elections aren't a two-horse race but still. It is remarkable how close the polls are.

Personally I feel it won't be quite so close, but I really don't know in what direction or why I think that. I just think there is so much going on that there will be a movement in one direction. If I had to put money on it, I would put it on Harris winning. At the end of the day, people tend to vote for the status quo if it seems risky, although much less so in recent years it seems.

Thank you for all those figures

What do they mean ?

Keep it simple ff sake

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

It's not exactly as this as there are some small third candidates, but essentially..

Trump +1 means he is ahead by one point (ie 50.5% to 49.5%.

Harris +4 means she is ahead by four points (ie 52% to 48%).

This is the case nationally and the same goes for the individual battle ground states, of which there are 7.

Modelling is then done where the organization "538" "run the election" through a computer programme and that makes a prediction and half of those times Harris wins and just under half of the time Trump wins.

Essentially it's tighter than Tans trousers when he used to pull them up to his belly button.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

It's not exactly as this as there are some small third candidates, but essentially..

Trump +1 means he is ahead by one point (ie 50.5% to 49.5%.

Harris +4 means she is ahead by four points (ie 52% to 48%).

This is the case nationally and the same goes for the individual battle ground states, of which there are 7.

Modelling is then done where the organization "538" "run the election" through a computer programme and that makes a prediction and half of those times Harris wins and just under half of the time Trump wins.

Essentially it's tighter than Tans trousers when he used to pull them up to his belly button.

I am still dazed and confused 😕

[JamesWales]

Re: The Donald Trump thread

I am still dazed and confused 😕

The modelling predicted there would be a 87.4% chance of that!