The Official Predictions Thread

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

But why such a spike in July? Vaccine administration has been widespread and ongoing for 18+ months and countries have been using different batches at different rates all over Europe.
Millions received doses in March 2021, August 2021, December 2021, February 2022 and every month in between and more. If it's vaccine related why would the spike only occur in July? You would expect to see a continuous rise in excess deaths in line with the vaccination rates.
Considering the similar rates of vaccine uptake in Denmark and Iceland, why is there such a disparity between their excess deaths? Iceland doesn't have a 4.5x higher vaccination rate yet has a 4.5x higher excess death rate

A lot of the excess deaths are recorded as not covid related, so they could show as cardiac or various types of cancers, etc. There are some statistics people who have been tracking the data.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

A lot of the excess deaths are recorded as not covid related, so they could show as cardiac or various types of cancers, etc. There are some statistics people who have been tracking the data.

Okay? How does that support the July spike being vaccine related?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Okay? How does that support the July spike being vaccine related?

What are the main causes of death?

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

What are the main causes of death?

The discontinuation of living seems to do it

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

The discontinuation of living seems to do it

Statisticians like to classify things in a way that tells a story how they want it to be told.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

So what do you believe the spike in excess deaths in July across the EU can be attributed to?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

So what do you believe the spike in excess deaths in July across the EU can be attributed to?

You can either go with lardy's heat theory or look for some other common denominator. BTW England and Wales also have non-covid excess deaths, USA too.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

You can either go with lardy's heat theory or look for some other common denominator. BTW England and Wales also have non-covid excess deaths, USA too.

So what do you think it is?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

So what do you think it is?

Hmmmm, what could it possibly be

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Hmmmm, what could it possibly be

Can't be rising sea levels, you've already dispelled that pesky myth because rich people are buying sea front properties

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Can't be rising sea levels, you've already dispelled that pesky myth because rich people are buying sea front properties

True, and they are not 100m above sea level either

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Can't be rising sea levels, you've already dispelled that pesky myth because rich people are buying sea front properties

Surely, the WEF have an interest in rising sea levels. For every dopey rich person who knows nothing about the rising sea levels over the past 150 years and who lives on the coast there are millions of us plebs in the low-lying areas.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

True, and they are not 100m above sea level either

So we’ve ruled out rising sea levels. What do you think caused the spike in excess deaths in July?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

So we’ve ruled out rising sea levels. What do you think caused the spike in excess deaths in July?

What do you think caused the spike?

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

What do you think caused the spike?

I dunno, I’ve not looked into it at all. You seem to think you know what it is but won’t say for whatever reason.

I’ve explained why I don’t think it can be attributed to vaccinations though because logically it doesn’t make sense. If there’s a single month spike of deaths, you’d expect a similar spike in something earlier. The vaccine rollout has been continuous for 18+ months and grew at an increasing rate initially.

As has been suggested, the summer heatwave that saw record temperatures across Europe certainly is more plausible. I’m a young, healthy bloke and I found the near 40 degree heat hard to deal with. I can imagine it was much harder to the point of being lethal for someone 60+ and in poorer health.

If you want to blame it on the Covid response, the initial lockdown is also more plausible than the vaccination rollout. Pretty much the entirety of Europe went into lockdown at the same time for a similar period of time. How many of the 53,000 excess deaths were cancer related? It’s no secret many people missed out on checkups and treatment sessions. How many mild, early stage cancer patients weren’t diagnosed and later died because they missed their March/April/May appointments?
I don’t know what the average life expectancy is for early stage cancer patients if it’s left untreated. ~2 years would seem a reasonable estimate to me based on people I know who have recovered or passed from cancer.