50 Points for Safety

[Father Dougal]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

I'd point out I only picked 50 points for safety because its what eric and better judges than I reckoned we needed a few games ago?
What has changed?

Birmingham went down with 51 last season and Peterborough went down with 54 previously.

Not sure there is a number really just need to be more than 3 points clear of 22nd going into last day.

[The Lone Gunman]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Points required to stay up during the last ten Championship seasons:

2013/14 - 45
2014/15 - 42
2015/16 - 41
2016/17 - 52
2017/18 - 42
2018/19 - 41
2019/20 - 49
2020/21 - 44
2021/22 - 38
2022/23 - 45
2023/24 - 51

Of course, some of those totals were arrived at because clubs had points deducted. Nevertheless, I'll be amazed if 50 or more points are required to stay up this season.

[LA Bluebird]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

The one x-factor for me is whether Eustace can turn around Derby, but I think the new manager bounce for Plymouth has probably worn off and Luton just look totally broken - also Oxford aren't out of it yet, they are on a crap run. If I had to pull a number out of my arse I'd probably say 45 would leave us feeling somewhat comfortable - that's 3 wins and 4 draws for Plymouth from 12 with their awful GD. It could well be a few less.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

The one x-factor for me is whether Eustace can turn around Derby, but I think the new manager bounce for Plymouth has probably worn off and Luton just look totally broken - also Oxford aren't out of it yet, they are on a crap run. If I had to pull a number out of my arse I'd probably say 45 would leave us feeling somewhat comfortable - that's 3 wins and 4 draws for Plymouth from 12 with their awful GD. It could well be a few less.

Have you thought of applying to do the FA Cup draw?

[LA Bluebird]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Have you thought of applying to do the FA Cup draw?

Haven't watched it in many years but that's an interesting twist they've gone with, what time do they show it now?

[splott parker]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Have you thought of applying to do the FA Cup draw?

Well we have had 3 shit away draws this season

[Father Dougal]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

The one x-factor for me is whether Eustace can turn around Derby, but I think the new manager bounce for Plymouth has probably worn off and Luton just look totally broken - also Oxford aren't out of it yet, they are on a crap run. If I had to pull a number out of my arse I'd probably say 45 would leave us feeling somewhat comfortable - that's 3 wins and 4 draws for Plymouth from 12 with their awful GD. It could well be a few less.

Always a worry when a team gets a new manager but I reckon derby were actually over performing under Warne. Their squad is a relegation squad all day long.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Oxford are 8 points clear of relegation and 2 ahead of us. They'll be fine.

Three points from the last seven games, lost the last two games 2-0 to Portsmouth and WBA?

I'm not so sure, they are getting dragged in, and maybe their new manager bounce has worn off?

Now three points from eight games, they are definitely in decline.

[aclem]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

I can't see where the need for 50 points comes from.
As a general rule 2 points or more gives auto promotion.
1 point or less relegation.
This season there are 3 strong teams at the top averaging 2 or more points per game.
There are 4 teams averaging under 1 point per game.

This means the teams at the top are taking away more points from the other sides in the league.
At the bottom no one is stranded with the 4 sides averaging less than 1 point, but all have a decent points haul. When the survival level of points rises there are usually 1 or 2 sides stranded with their points probably finding their way to the teams just above ( such as Rotherham on 20 points) with 1 side left being relegated with over 46 points.

From the above 44/45 point s should be safe but would give a scary final day.

[Tuerto]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Always a worry when a team gets a new manager but I reckon derby were actually over performing under Warne. Their squad is a relegation squad all day long.

Hang on, You obviosly weren't reading this board after Derby's first 5 games or so, Ebou Adams was a huge loss...... I don't know where people get some of this stuff from.....

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Hang on, You obviosly weren't reading this board after Derby's first 5 games or so, Ebou Adams was a huge loss...... I don't know where people get some of this stuff from.....

Message board rule #39 subsection d) if a former player has a good game or two, they will automatically become a huge loss to us.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Message board rule #39 subsection d) if a former player has a good game or two, they will automatically become a huge loss to us.

Similarly, a player who was dropped several games ago after performing poorly for quite some time now looks like the answer to current problems in the team.

[Crisp White Lines]

Re: 50 Points for Safety

Similarly, a player who was dropped several games ago after performing poorly for quite some time now looks like the answer to current problems in the team.

Under subsection (e) we have players who were bang average before their long term injury. They will be “like a great new signing when they return”.