Senedd election prediction

[Wozza16]

Re: Senedd election prediction

but thats still chicken feed

Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that ��

It's hardly chicken feed when it's only 6,000 (probably even less) off the membership of a party who have been engrained in Wales for decades.

I'm sure the number of voters for Plaid, Greens, Propel and Gwlad will equal a solid amount of the electorate.

Also add in the three Welsh Labour pro independence candidates to that total.

[Harry Paget Flashman]

Re: Senedd election prediction

this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU

Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.

I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?

[Hilts]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.

I have been staunch pro uk and strongly against independence.

But with this useless far right govt ive done a complete u turn.

First time Ive voted in the Senedd and I did so to do my bit to make sure a Tory wasnt voted in. I didnt vote for my preferred party but the party most likely to beat a Tory and it wasnt Plaid.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles

No its shit in England too

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.

I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?

I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories

If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories

If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner

You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.

clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

But I don't and nor does most of Wales

They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: Senedd election prediction

this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

But I don't and nor does most of Wales

They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight

But people voting Labour and all other parties in Wales are also becoming indy-curious.

We have a Westminster election before a Senedd one now and most likely result is a further Tory majority which seeks to attack devolution and attack Union - if that happens do you really think indy-curious people voting Labour/Lib Dem/Greens etc. this time will side with them again? They'll go to the party promising referendum on independence.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Senedd election prediction

You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.

It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".

He's a cautious, unsexy nerd. We live in a time (have we always?) where a strong leader is usually preferred but perhaps covid is the one occasion where caution and nerdish behaviour is admired.

[WJ99mobile]

Re: Senedd election prediction

It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".

He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.

[BLUETIT]

Re: Senedd election prediction

He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

PLUS THE BARSTEWARD TAXED OUR BOOZE
He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.

It should be our choice if we wanna drink, not some teetotal t wat down the bay.

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.

But apart from last summer, his bad news has been closer to what's been needed throughout the pandemic. Boris has been acting in a cautious manner since 2nd week of January 2021 because he wants to escape comments about showing too much risk during last winter.

[City123]

Re: Senedd election prediction

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded

Its a shame because based on Sludge's posts Plaid are probably the closest party to him ideologically. Labour have moved right since 2019 and seem to be using the Hartlepool result to justify continuing to do so