study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

[TWGL1]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I find it amazing that people who lived through the event are now trying to rewrite history.

Found this in respect of London https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8322575/Londons-key-coronavirus-R-rate-falling-lockdown.html

[TWGL1]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-r-number-fell-23000308

[JamesWales]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

https://twitter.com/PWGTennant/statu...mFFwWg4Nw&s=19

20-35k people wouldn't have died and the lockdown could have been finished up to a month sooner .

I dont really get the thinking here. I think we all know that had we locked down earlier, the first wave peak would have been lower, but I dont see how it would not just have taken hold just as badly in the second wave given the lack of vaccines at that time etc.

A lot of these models have been quite spectacularly wrong so I don't think we can take this as gospel at all. Also have to consider the anomoly that is SWeden.

Also, worth remembering, we locked down the same day as Germany. Only one day after Netherlands and before Ireland. We also locked down a week or so later than Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, which all have much worse death rates.

I'm not saying that doesn't mean it wasnt a mistake to lock down comparatively late - it was - I'm just questioning this modelling

[blue matt]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

When you look at the way all the world's countries have attempted to handle Covid, all in their own different ways, the only thing you can say without fear of contradiction, is that it doesn't work - anywhere. Shut down early, shut down late- whatever, the results were the same. Trying to say things might have been better if we closed down a week earlier is just ridiculous.

not ridiculous as it seems if you have a certain political leaning and want to score points

[chrisp_1927]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I agree with the general crux of the argument, a week or 2 earlier would have been good. Lockdown also should have meant lockdown, rather than with All the exemptions and lack of enforcement we had.

Sick of seeing these moron modellers pop up constantly though. You can find one for any view on covid you desire.

[Former Labour leader]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I find it amazing that people who lived through the event are now trying to rewrite history.

No point arguing Bob. The covid deniers are well entrenched. Johnson has been well advised to delay the public enquiry has he is going to get a hammering over the mistakes he had made.

[goats]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

Its not hindsight.

Even the presenters at Cheltenham were questioning the meeting got it wrong and there was a huge surge of cases in the area after.

The politicians got it wrong.

They did, that must be the first time that’s ever happened though right?

[Rjk]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I dont really get the thinking here. I think we all know that had we locked down earlier, the first wave peak would have been lower, but I dont see how it would not just have taken hold just as badly in the second wave given the lack of vaccines at that time etc.

A lot of these models have been quite spectacularly wrong so I don't think we can take this as gospel at all. Also have to consider the anomoly that is SWeden.

Also, worth remembering, we locked down the same day as Germany. Only one day after Netherlands and before Ireland. We also locked down a week or so later than Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, which all have much worse death rates.

I'm not saying that doesn't mean it wasnt a mistake to lock down comparatively late - it was - I'm just questioning this modelling

Ireland had measures in place long before us, I'm pretty sure they closed the schools at least a week before us. there were many tweets at the time from people in Ireland completely bemused that we weren't doing anything

[JamesWales]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

No point arguing Bob. The covid deniers are well entrenched. Johnson has been well advised to delay the public enquiry has he is going to get a hammering over the mistakes he had made.

Nice tactic, but I don't think being sceptical of a form of modelling that got many predictions wildly wrong is a bad thing. Nor is it unreasonable to point out that countries that locked down sooner than us have ended up with much worse death rates, and some countries that locked down after us have far better.

Surely these facts point to a wide number of variables being at play and that's worthy of discussion, is it not?

It doesn't make someone a covid denier, it means they want to find out the truth, not least so that we can better manage such an event in the future.

[JamesWales]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

Ireland had measures in place long before us, I'm pretty sure they closed the schools at least a week before us. there were many tweets at the time from people in Ireland completely bemused that we weren't doing anything

They had restrictions before us, but a national lockdown after us according to this article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52103747

[the other bob wilson]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I find it amazing that people who lived through the event are now trying to rewrite history.

Here’s a good historical document that shows what people were thinking in March 2020 and traces the history of the virus in this country. It also tends to confirm my recollection that Italy were the first European country to seriously experience Covid followed by Spain and then us, so comparing us with more northern mainland European countries is not really appropriate in this instance.

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php?443411-Coronavirus-update-IS-THE-END-IN-SIGHT/page17

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

When you look at the way all the world's countries have attempted to handle Covid, all in their own different ways, the only thing you can say without fear of contradiction, is that it doesn't work - anywhere. Shut down early, shut down late- whatever, the results were the same. Trying to say things might have been better if we closed down a week earlier is just ridiculous.

I'm not sure I understand the logic here. Considering that people had a better chance of survival after the vaccination programme was rolled out, the length of the period up until the Lockdown date would surely have had an effect on death rates.

[Undercoverinwurzelland]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I'm not sure I understand the logic here. Considering that people had a better chance of survival after the vaccination programme was rolled out, the length of the period up until the Lockdown date would surely have had an effect on death rates.

Plus extra time to stock up on PPE, learn how to treat it, set up test and trace etc

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

Plus extra time to stock up on PPE, learn how to treat it, set up test and trace etc

Indeed.

[blue matt]

Re: study suggests if we had locked down a week earlier....

I'm not sure I understand the logic here. Considering that people had a better chance of survival after the vaccination programme was rolled out, the length of the period up until the Lockdown date would surely have had an effect on death rates.

vaccines were a long way away at that time though, we were into our 2nd lockdown by the time the 1st jab was given