Senedd election prediction

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.

clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

But I don't and nor does most of Wales

They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight

[surge]

clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

But I don't and nor does most of Wales

They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight

But people voting Labour and all other parties in Wales are also becoming indy-curious.

We have a Westminster election before a Senedd one now and most likely result is a further Tory majority which seeks to attack devolution and attack Union - if that happens do you really think indy-curious people voting Labour/Lib Dem/Greens etc. this time will side with them again? They'll go to the party promising referendum on independence.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

[City123]

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded

Its a shame because based on Sludge's posts Plaid are probably the closest party to him ideologically. Labour have moved right since 2019 and seem to be using the Hartlepool result to justify continuing to do so

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

cobblers

[Eric the Half a Bee]

cobblers

Are you shoe-r?

[surge]

I think Plaid will finish as third biggest party but probably made mistakes in: setting a date for referendum when it currently scares a lot of people and perhaps promising to spend too aggressively in their manifesto. The transformative policies are good but think parties of the left need slightly more focus on what's most important/achievable - combining with Gwlad team might help do this.

In addition, fear that Tories would win in big numbers and pandemic giving Labour center stage has probably lost them votes too.

I know it's still early days, much to play for, but is anyone else looking forward to Sludge hastily updating his views on Mark Drakeford?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded

dreamers

[Rjk]

Seems to have been a very high turnout this time around, in wales at least.
Doesn't seem to have been the case in England

[cityhammer]

One of the things that the polls won’t have included is the effect that queuing to vote might have had which might be crucial in some constituencies. A Labour voter faced with an hour queue May we’ll have given up thinking the seat was safe anyway, whereas others may have waited to vote.

[surge]

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

What a complete and utter cult

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin

[surge]

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.

[Rjk]

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.

The real real test for devolution will be when Ireland is unified and Scotland has left the union.
Right now it's just about building a base of support - shooting the bolt too early would be a bad idea

[The Bloop]

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?

[surge]

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?

Yeah, I found it quite creepy when looking at their videos. I believe they were promising to heal people.

Regarding independence, I agree that next five years should be about building support and resources that make it possible instead of setting a date to ask the question. People will be quick to tell you why it could never work so if you work on answers to that either people still say no and Wales is a better nation for work done or people say yes and better chance of success.

[surge]

Montgomeryshire: Tory hold with increase in vote share of +6.3.

Tories and Reform vote share: 50.3% (of which 48.1% is Tory).
Plaid, Lib Dem and Labour vote share: 49%.

I know it doesn't work like that but here we go again!

[Rjk]

Montgomeryshire: Tory hold with increase in vote share of +6.3.

Tories and Reform vote share: 50.3% (of which 48.1% is Tory).
Plaid, Lib Dem and Labour vote share: 49%.

I know it doesn't work like that but here we go again!

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.

[xsnaggle]

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.

Safe seat but I have no idea how things will look if the percentage holds across the board.

[surge]

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.

But in a safe Tory seat only 50.3% of voters went for a party representative of the right.

[xsnaggle]

But in a safe Tory seat only 50.3% of voters went for a party representative of the right.

with the man doubling his majority you have to admit you're clutching at straws there surge. I hope you have lots of straws in that case.

[the other bob wilson]

Just driven into Treorchy listening to Radio Wales where they’re saying it looks like Plaid are going to lose Rhondda and there was a former AM from that party saying that they may not be going to do as well as hoped - one opinion expressed was that Labour general election voters who vote for Plaid in Assembly elections are backing Labour this time to try and keep the Torys out.

[City123]

Just driven into Treorchy listening to Radio Wales where they’re saying it looks like Plaid are going to lose Rhondda and there was a former AM from that party saying that they may not be going to do as well as hoped - one opinion expressed was that Labour general election voters who vote for Plaid in Assembly elections are backing Labour this time to try and keep the Torys out.

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood

[the other bob wilson]

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood

Agreed.