Quote Originally Posted by David Vincent View Post
While I was waiting for your lesson in stats I though I’d work out the chance of getting to 80 in Cardiff without being murdered. The murder rate for Cardiff is 1.7 per 100,000 according to this site.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ealed-10782048

So the chance of not being killed each year is 99998.3/100000 = .999983. To survive 80 years you calculate .999983 to the power of 80 and you get .99864. That’s the chance of getting to 80 without being killed. The chance of being killed is 1-.99864=0.00136. That means 1.36 per 1000 will be murdered before they make 80.

I'm just a silly old man - as our German student keeps telling me - so I am sure you will be able correct my figures and point me in the right direction.
The flaw is in translating those figures into your statement that 20 people at a Cardiff game would on average be a victim of homicide (defined as murder, manslaughter and infanticide) and implying that no-one would turn up given the risk. For that to be true:

a) the stadium population would be made up exclusively of new born and
b) they would have to be there every day for between 0 and 80 years for the risk to materialise.

That's probably why most sane people feel it reasonably safe to buy a season ticket.