Labour won 41% of the vote in Wales at the 2019 general election. Opinion polls for the 2024 general election show that support for Labour has declined in Wales - which isn't surprising given Drakeford's decline and VG's disastrous reign.
Since 2021 opinion polling for the next Senedd elections has consistently shown support for Labour in the low 30s% for the regional seats. All seats will be 'regional' in 2026 and after 2 years of Starmer and 2 years of VG's replacement - possibly Lynne Neagle - the Welsh electorate are very unlikely to be more enthusiastic about Labour than they are now.
We face the prospect of a Senedd with no majority (which has usually been the case since 1999) but with a diminished Labour Party cowed by High Commissioner Jo Stevens and a Plaid Cymru utterly hostile to Starmerism.
Plaid are likely to have 25-30 seats (out of 96) and could possibly form a minority government with Greens and LibDems.
Roll on 2026! Labour will have been outed as the two-faced neoliberal sham that they actually are and hopefully Wales will boot them out.