Senedd Election 2026

[City123]

Just under a year to go until the next Senedd election, the first with the new expanded Senedd and ITV Wales have released a poll (in conjunction with Cardiff Uni & YouGov)

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-...iorwerth-as-fm

Plaid Cymru - 30%

Reform UK - 25%

Labour - 18%

Conservatives - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 7%

Green - 5%

Other - 2%

Using a seat calculator would supposedly result in: Plaid Cymru 36 seats, Reform 28, Labour 20, Conservatives 9, Lib Dems 2 and Greens 1. Plaid short of a majority by 13 seats

For Westminster the results were as follows
Plaid Cymru - 24%

Reform UK - 24%

Labour - 20%

Conservative - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 2%

Its one poll but at a guess this is the first time Plaid Cymru have lead both a Senedd & Westminster poll? Its got to be the largest margin they've been ahead of Labour at the very least. Interesting times.

[JamesWales]

I think only one of these polls can be correct really. There are reasons to vote differently in the senedd or Westminster, but not many reasons really, and when you drill into the figures (Wikipedia pages on future elections are brilliant for this) you see really quite different responses for the sam age groups.

I suspect the second one is more accurate, and I think in due course Labour will do a bit better, but it seems highly unlikely they will go ern with a majority.

Seems that Plaid are starting to get more appeal amongst the young. Leanne Wood was no leader and Rhun ap Iorwerth comes across pretty well (I thought Adam Price was a great leader too mind) so I can see how they can sustain things.

There will almost certainly be a change next year though. I think there is a general appetite for change and a feeling that Labour and Wales need a break from eachother for a little while. It has all the vibes of an unhappy marriage and the electorate have come back from a girls holiday away and realised their husband of 30 years is not the man he was and is actually quite boring.

[JamesWales]

Edit: Plaids actual performance in the senedd is actually typically a good 5% up on their general election share of votes. You would expect some difference, but it is consistently higher. I guess that reflects the reality that they have a chance of governing here unlike Westminster. I don't think the same difference exists with the SNP. Interesting.

[City123]

Edit: Plaids actual performance in the senedd is actually typically a good 5% up on their general election share of votes. You would expect some difference, but it is consistently higher. I guess that reflects the reality that they have a chance of governing here unlike Westminster. I don't think the same difference exists with the SNP. Interesting.

There's a lot of people who vote Labour in Westminster and Plaid in the Senedd

What'll be interesting is to see if (if it happens) a Plaid-led Welsh Government changes that attitude

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

What's happening is this

Labour voters will hold their nose and vote Plaid as the idea of a coalition junior partner position is better than the nightmare of a reform government

Plaid are more left wing than Labour so it's a fairly easy soft vote to hold back reform until Labour get rid of the dead wood

I still find it laughable that Drakeford is still hanging around

Eluned Morgan isn't up to the job

In fact the only decent leader has been Carwyn Jones

[Tuerto]

I think only one of these polls can be correct really. There are reasons to vote differently in the senedd or Westminster, but not many reasons really, and when you drill into the figures (Wikipedia pages on future elections are brilliant for this) you see really quite different responses for the sam age groups.

I suspect the second one is more accurate, and I think in due course Labour will do a bit better, but it seems highly unlikely they will go ern with a majority.

Seems that Plaid are starting to get more appeal amongst the young. Leanne Wood was no leader and Rhun ap Iorwerth comes across pretty well (I thought Adam Price was a great leader too mind) so I can see how they can sustain things.

There will almost certainly be a change next year though. I think there is a general appetite for change and a feeling that Labour and Wales need a break from eachother for a little while. It has all the vibes of an unhappy marriage and the electorate have come back from a girls holiday away and realised their husband of 30 years is not the man he was and is actually quite boring.

What an absolutely shocking analogy on so many levels.

[JamesWales]

What an absolutely shocking analogy on so many levels.

Clearly lost on you, but it plainly wasn't an entirely seriously one!

But I do think the general idea of the public being a bit bored and "out of love" and wanting a change, but that change probably being temporary is fairly accurate as it goes.

You don't?

[the other bob wilson]

Clearly lost on you, but it plainly wasn't an entirely seriously one!

But I do think the general idea of the public being a bit bored and "out of love" and wanting a change, but that change probably being temporary is fairly accurate as it goes.

You don't?

Apart from Canada and Australia, people have been voting out incumbent Governments the world over. Labour really should have been voted out last time, but it’s hard to see them surviving this time although I think Morgan’s attempt to distance her administration from Starmer’s cowards is a step in the right direction.

The only way I’ll vote Labour in Senedd or Westminster elections though is if the polls at voting time show a vote for them is the best way to keep Reform, or the Tories, out. If this latest poll had been published on Senedd voting day, I’d be voting Plaid.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Apart from Canada and Australia, people have been voting out incumbent Governments the world over. Labour really should have been voted out last time, but it’s hard to see them surviving this time although I think Morgan’s attempt to distance her administration from Starmer’s cowards is a step in the right direction.

The only way I’ll vote Labour in Senedd or Westminster elections though is if the polls at voting time show a vote for them is the best way to keep Reform, or the Tories, out. If this latest poll had been published on Senedd voting day, I’d be voting Plaid.

I think that is a fair shout

The Plaid leader was saying yesterday this shows people are really understanding what PC are about

I think that's nonsense

Labour have been shocking for several years , there is a huge growth in right wing support and the only way to keep out reform and the Tories is to grudgingly vote Plaid and hope a PC led coalition with Labour can work .....and I am sure it can