Senedd Election 2026

[City123]

Just under a year to go until the next Senedd election, the first with the new expanded Senedd and ITV Wales have released a poll (in conjunction with Cardiff Uni & YouGov)

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-...iorwerth-as-fm

Plaid Cymru - 30%

Reform UK - 25%

Labour - 18%

Conservatives - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 7%

Green - 5%

Other - 2%

Using a seat calculator would supposedly result in: Plaid Cymru 36 seats, Reform 28, Labour 20, Conservatives 9, Lib Dems 2 and Greens 1. Plaid short of a majority by 13 seats

For Westminster the results were as follows
Plaid Cymru - 24%

Reform UK - 24%

Labour - 20%

Conservative - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 2%

Its one poll but at a guess this is the first time Plaid Cymru have lead both a Senedd & Westminster poll? Its got to be the largest margin they've been ahead of Labour at the very least. Interesting times.

[JamesWales]

I think only one of these polls can be correct really. There are reasons to vote differently in the senedd or Westminster, but not many reasons really, and when you drill into the figures (Wikipedia pages on future elections are brilliant for this) you see really quite different responses for the sam age groups.

I suspect the second one is more accurate, and I think in due course Labour will do a bit better, but it seems highly unlikely they will go ern with a majority.

Seems that Plaid are starting to get more appeal amongst the young. Leanne Wood was no leader and Rhun ap Iorwerth comes across pretty well (I thought Adam Price was a great leader too mind) so I can see how they can sustain things.

There will almost certainly be a change next year though. I think there is a general appetite for change and a feeling that Labour and Wales need a break from eachother for a little while. It has all the vibes of an unhappy marriage and the electorate have come back from a girls holiday away and realised their husband of 30 years is not the man he was and is actually quite boring.

[JamesWales]

Edit: Plaids actual performance in the senedd is actually typically a good 5% up on their general election share of votes. You would expect some difference, but it is consistently higher. I guess that reflects the reality that they have a chance of governing here unlike Westminster. I don't think the same difference exists with the SNP. Interesting.

[City123]

Edit: Plaids actual performance in the senedd is actually typically a good 5% up on their general election share of votes. You would expect some difference, but it is consistently higher. I guess that reflects the reality that they have a chance of governing here unlike Westminster. I don't think the same difference exists with the SNP. Interesting.

There's a lot of people who vote Labour in Westminster and Plaid in the Senedd

What'll be interesting is to see if (if it happens) a Plaid-led Welsh Government changes that attitude

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

What's happening is this

Labour voters will hold their nose and vote Plaid as the idea of a coalition junior partner position is better than the nightmare of a reform government

Plaid are more left wing than Labour so it's a fairly easy soft vote to hold back reform until Labour get rid of the dead wood

I still find it laughable that Drakeford is still hanging around

Eluned Morgan isn't up to the job

In fact the only decent leader has been Carwyn Jones

[Tuerto]

I think only one of these polls can be correct really. There are reasons to vote differently in the senedd or Westminster, but not many reasons really, and when you drill into the figures (Wikipedia pages on future elections are brilliant for this) you see really quite different responses for the sam age groups.

I suspect the second one is more accurate, and I think in due course Labour will do a bit better, but it seems highly unlikely they will go ern with a majority.

Seems that Plaid are starting to get more appeal amongst the young. Leanne Wood was no leader and Rhun ap Iorwerth comes across pretty well (I thought Adam Price was a great leader too mind) so I can see how they can sustain things.

There will almost certainly be a change next year though. I think there is a general appetite for change and a feeling that Labour and Wales need a break from eachother for a little while. It has all the vibes of an unhappy marriage and the electorate have come back from a girls holiday away and realised their husband of 30 years is not the man he was and is actually quite boring.

What an absolutely shocking analogy on so many levels.

[JamesWales]

What an absolutely shocking analogy on so many levels.

Clearly lost on you, but it plainly wasn't an entirely seriously one!

But I do think the general idea of the public being a bit bored and "out of love" and wanting a change, but that change probably being temporary is fairly accurate as it goes.

You don't?

[the other bob wilson]

Clearly lost on you, but it plainly wasn't an entirely seriously one!

But I do think the general idea of the public being a bit bored and "out of love" and wanting a change, but that change probably being temporary is fairly accurate as it goes.

You don't?

Apart from Canada and Australia, people have been voting out incumbent Governments the world over. Labour really should have been voted out last time, but it’s hard to see them surviving this time although I think Morgan’s attempt to distance her administration from Starmer’s cowards is a step in the right direction.

The only way I’ll vote Labour in Senedd or Westminster elections though is if the polls at voting time show a vote for them is the best way to keep Reform, or the Tories, out. If this latest poll had been published on Senedd voting day, I’d be voting Plaid.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Apart from Canada and Australia, people have been voting out incumbent Governments the world over. Labour really should have been voted out last time, but it’s hard to see them surviving this time although I think Morgan’s attempt to distance her administration from Starmer’s cowards is a step in the right direction.

The only way I’ll vote Labour in Senedd or Westminster elections though is if the polls at voting time show a vote for them is the best way to keep Reform, or the Tories, out. If this latest poll had been published on Senedd voting day, I’d be voting Plaid.

I think that is a fair shout

The Plaid leader was saying yesterday this shows people are really understanding what PC are about

I think that's nonsense

Labour have been shocking for several years , there is a huge growth in right wing support and the only way to keep out reform and the Tories is to grudgingly vote Plaid and hope a PC led coalition with Labour can work .....and I am sure it can

[JamesWales]

I think that is a fair shout

The Plaid leader was saying yesterday this shows people are really understanding what PC are about

I think that's nonsense

Labour have been shocking for several years , there is a huge growth in right wing support and the only way to keep out reform and the Tories is to grudgingly vote Plaid and hope a PC led coalition with Labour can work .....and I am sure it can

And do what though, more of the same? Why would people want that?

[JamesWales]

Apart from Canada and Australia, people have been voting out incumbent Governments the world over. Labour really should have been voted out last time, but it’s hard to see them surviving this time although I think Morgan’s attempt to distance her administration from Starmer’s cowards is a step in the right direction.

The only way I’ll vote Labour in Senedd or Westminster elections though is if the polls at voting time show a vote for them is the best way to keep Reform, or the Tories, out. If this latest poll had been published on Senedd voting day, I’d be voting Plaid.

Yeah I think there is a general downturn in support for them across the board. A lot of the traditional working class support will drift to Reform. A lot of the more partisan Welsh support will go to Plaid. Alot of the younger voters new to elections will go to Plaid. Those who wanted to punish the Tories will feel they have now done so etc etc.

It doesn't help that Eluned Morgan is pretty anonymous either but the biggest issue is their own abject failure. They deserve to go. It's fairly ridiculous to have the same party in power for so long anyway let alone when they have such a questionable record of delivering. I still genuinely can't think of much bar free prescriptions that I like and that came in 20+ years ago.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

And do what though, more of the same? Why would people want that?

It's the best case scenario

I think the fear of reform is enough to ensure a Plaid Labour coalition

That may not be what you want but that's what will probably happen

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Yeah I think there is a general downturn in support for them across the board. A lot of the traditional working class support will drift to Reform. A lot of the more partisan Welsh support will go to Plaid. Alot of the younger voters new to elections will go to Plaid. Those who wanted to punish the Tories will feel they have now done so etc etc.

It doesn't help that Eluned Morgan is pretty anonymous either but the biggest issue is their own abject failure. They deserve to go. It's fairly ridiculous to have the same party in power for so long anyway let alone when they have such a questionable record of delivering. I still genuinely can't think of much bar free prescriptions that I like and that came in 20+ years ago.

Having a party in power for a long period is OK if they are moderately successful

It's clear that since Carwyn Jones stepped down the ship has been sinking

After 13 years of labour rule in Westminster everyone .....well tory voters ...said its time for change

Despite Brown being hopeless the conservatives couldn't convince the country it was time for them and there was a coalition

This is what's going to happen in Wales

Labour in its present form is a bust flush ......the whole lot of them look spent

But reform .....?

[JamesWales]

Having a party in power for a long period is OK if they are moderately successful

It's clear that since Carwyn Jones stepped down the ship has been sinking

After 13 years of labour rule in Westminster everyone .....well tory voters ...said its time for change

Despite Brown being hopeless the conservatives couldn't convince the country it was time for them and there was a coalition

This is what's going to happen in Wales

Labour in its present form is a bust flush ......the whole lot of them look spent

But reform .....?

Yeah I mean if they are successful then no reason to change. But I think changing every few years (and the threat of change) makes governments more successful. Welsh Labour have become very comfortable and essentially rely on people voting for them out of tradition.

On the last point we will soon learn whether there is anything to worry about, as they now control numerous councils. Mainly County Councils though I think, which don't have the full suite of powers.

I think it will be very interesting to see, particularly their rhetoric on reducing waste. Councils get overcharged on so much because contractors know they will almost certainly pay for it. A look in any councils goods catalogue would be an eye opener for many tax payers!

Proof will be in the pudding. They'll find it far harder to fix than they think though, but there is a shit load to fix at the same time

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Yeah I mean if they are successful then no reason to change. But I think changing every few years (and the threat of change) makes governments more successful. Welsh Labour have become very comfortable and essentially rely on people voting for them out of tradition.

On the last point we will soon learn whether there is anything to worry about, as they now control numerous councils. Mainly County Councils though I think, which don't have the full suite of powers.

I think it will be very interesting to see, particularly their rhetoric on reducing waste. Councils get overcharged on so much because contractors know they will almost certainly pay for it. A look in any councils goods catalogue would be an eye opener for many tax payers!

Proof will be in the pudding. They'll find it far harder to fix than they think though, but there is a shit load to fix at the same time

Millions of people vote conservative out of tradition , in fact in greater numbers if we look historically

The most noticeable stuff coming through from reform is them saying they only want union jacks etc flying from council offices

It's complete nonsense and playing to the right wing patriotic guff

Unfortunately that's what is getting them votes

But with regard to housing , immigration , the nhs and public services they are going to get slaughtered and rightly so

That's going to dent their support but the reality is reform have a group of the electorate who won't be going back so it's up to Labour, the liberals etc to get their act together and shore up their core vote

Getting rid of starmer , Ed Davey and eluned morgan would be the first step

[JamesWales]

Millions of people vote conservative out of tradition , in fact in greater numbers if we look historically

The most noticeable stuff coming through from reform is them saying they only want union jacks etc flying from council offices

It's complete nonsense and playing to the right wing patriotic guff

Unfortunately that's what is getting them votes

But with regard to housing , immigration , the nhs and public services they are going to get slaughtered and rightly so

That's going to dent their support but the reality is reform have a group of the electorate who won't be going back so it's up to Labour, the liberals etc to get their act together and shore up their core vote

Getting rid of starmer , Ed Davey and eluned morgan would be the first step

Yeah the Tories absolutely have their voters who do so out of tradition / loyalty etc too. And that's massively weakened. Same too with Labour in many of their English and Scottish heartlands, but Wales has remained loyal, so far.

Reforms main policy definitely is nothing to do with flags, but it says a lot about public discourse that websites push that story out. Ironically it is not to appease others, but to enrage yourself. (The blue passports story was always the best example of that!).

As I said, we'll have to see how they go.

[Dorcus]

Yeah the Tories absolutely have their voters who do so out of tradition / loyalty etc too. And that's massively weakened. Same too with Labour in many of their English and Scottish heartlands, but Wales has remained loyal, so far.

Reforms main policy definitely is nothing to do with flags, but it says a lot about public discourse that websites push that story out. Ironically it is not to appease others, but to enrage yourself. (The blue passports story was always the best example of that!).

As I said, we'll have to see how they go.

They certainly enrage me!

[Heathblue]

Yeah the Tories absolutely have their voters who do so out of tradition / loyalty etc too. And that's massively weakened. Same too with Labour in many of their English and Scottish heartlands, but Wales has remained loyal, so far.

Reforms main policy definitely is nothing to do with flags, but it says a lot about public discourse that websites push that story out. Ironically it is not to appease others, but to enrage yourself. (The blue passports story was always the best example of that!).

As I said, we'll have to see how they go.

I read on the Wonderweb yesterday that Reform are toying with the 1st 20k of earnings being tax free!! that would be a vote winner especially for those at the early point in their careers and the pensioners that Labour have shat upon from a great height. ?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Yeah the Tories absolutely have their voters who do so out of tradition / loyalty etc too. And that's massively weakened. Same too with Labour in many of their English and Scottish heartlands, but Wales has remained loyal, so far.

Reforms main policy definitely is nothing to do with flags, but it says a lot about public discourse that websites push that story out. Ironically it is not to appease others, but to enrage yourself. (The blue passports story was always the best example of that!).

As I said, we'll have to see how they go.

Reform are a right wing party

Flags , immigration , all that cobblers

They shout stop the boats ! ....a tiny proportion of immigration .....and get votes

But they are not proposing anything to bring that about

One trick pony

They have support but they are a bunch of chancers and you seem to have been sucked in

You would be better off getting back into bed with your conservative chums and push for a moderate tory party led by the likes of James Cleverly

It's a complete waste of time the main parties trying to woo back hard core reform voters , they are lost and now have a party to vote for

If there is any good news it splits the tory vote so if the labour party get rid of starmer they will be able to govern with a coalition

I would even consider a few faces from a new moderate conservative wing to ensure stable government and keep reform out as they are dangerous

[JamesWales]

Reform are a right wing party

Flags , immigration , all that cobblers

They shout stop the boats ! ....a tiny proportion of immigration .....and get votes

But they are not proposing anything to bring that about

One trick pony

They have support but they are a bunch of chancers and you seem to have been sucked in

You would be better off getting back into bed with your conservative chums and push for a moderate tory party led by the likes of James Cleverly

It's a complete waste of time the main parties trying to woo back hard core reform voters , they are lost and now have a party to vote for

If there is any good news it splits the tory vote so if the labour party get rid of starmer they will be able to govern with a coalition

I would even consider a few faces from a new moderate conservative wing to ensure stable government and keep reform out as they are dangerous

Forget about flags. It's a distraction, although one that is part of a wider debate about the benefits of us all starting to talk more about what connects us rather than divides

As for immigration, the main difference between Labour and Reform seems to be about 18 months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c626dyd8y8wo

[cyril evans awaydays]

I read on the Wonderweb yesterday that Reform are toying with the 1st 20k of earnings being tax free!! that would be a vote winner especially for those at the early point in their careers and the pensioners that Labour have shat upon from a great height. ?

I cant believe this is the first you saw of this given that it was a prime plank of the Reform 2024 manifesto. Here is the IFS taking the piss out of it as voodoo economics on a Trussian scale.Still, be careful what you wish for!

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-u...festo-reaction

[Heathblue]

I cant believe this is the first you saw of this given that it was a prime plank of the Reform 2024 manifesto. Here is the IFS taking the piss out of it as voodoo economics on a Trussian scale.Still, be careful what you wish for!

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-u...festo-reaction

Still about Cyril, nice to see you, yes 1st time seen sorry, not sure why you think I would go looking for the reform manifesto ?.
Reports today on X with video , the 3 stooges with a suspicious white bag of powder, 1st time I've seen it, although hard to make it out on the fone, your leader has been appropriately renamed as " loves the gear Kier" would it surprise you if Europe is being governed by a bunch of coke heads ?, can you imagine the coverage if a certain person or one of his sons was sat at the table 🤣🤣🤣

[cyril evans awaydays]

Still about Cyril, nice to see you, yes 1st time seen sorry, not sure why you think I would go looking for the reform manifesto ?.
Reports today on X with video , the 3 stooges with a suspicious white bag of powder, 1st time I've seen it, although hard to make it out on the fone, your leader has been appropriately renamed as " loves the gear Kier" would it surprise you if Europe is being governed by a bunch of coke heads ?, can you imagine the coverage if a certain person or one of his sons was sat at the table 🤣🤣🤣

Good question, Nels. Looking for information to help form your opinions and being subconsciously influenced by the Wonderweb are completely different things after all!

[JamesWales]

I cant believe this is the first you saw of this given that it was a prime plank of the Reform 2024 manifesto. Here is the IFS taking the piss out of it as voodoo economics on a Trussian scale.Still, be careful what you wish for!

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-u...festo-reaction

I don't think the IFS's thoughts change much. They were very critical of Labours 2017 manifesto and they got nearly 13m votes!

It's a pretty daft policy. In due course the tax free amount will inevitably rise to £20k, but not in the course of the next parliament. They will certainly need to tighten up things like that even if it's a laudable enough policy on paper.

[cyril evans awaydays]

I have no idea what the first paragraph has to do with the conversation.

Heathblue was highlighting the 20k headline because it reappeared in the Reform supporting dailies as a selling point to the less well off.

It, and raising the 40% threshold for the well off from 50k to 70k and disproportionately making the latter more well off compared with those below the 20k threshold never really got challenged because the Reform boys were a protest party.

Now, sensible people like you, fiscally educated, will surely be asking serious questions where the £90 billion givaway will be recuperated from.