Jenrick

[jon1959]

I just can’t see Farage losing any sleep over what Jenrick is doing unless there are far more voters to the right of Reform than I think there are. To me, Jenrick is losing far more votes in the so called middle ground than he can hope to gain on the far right, but is my thinking ten, or maybe even five, years out on that?

I'm sure that is true - as it is for the Tory party as a whole (even with Badenock refusing to mimic Reform, relying instead on old fashioned right wing Toryism), and as it is for the Labour Party who are chasing Reform but losing 4x as many votes to their left as they have to their right!

It feels as if the UK is catching up with much of continental Europe - seeing the traditional big parties of the centre left and the right implode (partly self-inflicted, partly due to pressure from outside) and new (often but not always) populist parties of the right and left replacing them - with some new centrist creation (like Macron's lot) emerging at the same time.

It is getting more volatile all the time.

Traditional Labour and Tory voters switching direct to Reform. Tories disappearing electorally and in membership across parts of their heartlands. Lib Dems and Greens hoovering up votes, seats and members from left and right. If the polls are correct the new Corbyn/Sultana party will attract significant numbers of Reform voters who formerly backed Labour.

The SNP and PC have got over their wobbles and will probably be major players in any future parliament. The slow move towards the nationalist and republican left in Northern Ireland could continue despite recent reactionary incidents (and there too the traditional so-called moderate nationalists and unionists have been supplanted).

The insurgent parties have joined the Lib Dems in arguing for PR. I wouldn't be surprised to see a coalition government under PR inside 10 years.