Election Prediction

[Doucas]

Re: Election Prediction

Yeah absolutely. I know some of you disagree, but the economic issues of the last 3 years really are external factors and they have impacted every govt, many of whom have been voted out across Europe and the world. So those things really should improve.

The other stuff; Johnson, parties, whiff of corruption etc..if Sunak can stamp it out, then that criticism will disapper Into the background too, at least for many.

I think Labour will comfortably win, but it's like saying who will win the 2024 cup final - Man City of Chelsea. No one would predict Chelsea if asked, but everyone knows by that point the situation could be different

External factors like brexit?

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Election Prediction

Yeah absolutely. I know some of you disagree, but the economic issues of the last 3 years really are external factors and they have impacted every govt, many of whom have been voted out across Europe and the world. So those things really should improve.

The other stuff; Johnson, parties, whiff of corruption etc..if Sunak can stamp it out, then that criticism will disapper Into the background too, at least for many.

I think Labour will comfortably win, but it's like saying who will win the 2024 cup final - Man City of Chelsea. No one would predict Chelsea if asked, but everyone knows by that point the situation could be different

So, the Tory party have taken to calling Truss and Kwarteng “external factors” now have they?

[JamesWales]

Re: Election Prediction

So, the Tory party have taken to calling Truss and Kwarteng “external factors” now have they?

Covid, war in Ukraine.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

That Pritti Patel is a complete back stabber

Mind you if it messes up the tory party It's fine by me

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Election Prediction

Covid, war in Ukraine.

Yes, I know about them, but Truss and Kwarteng’s mismanagement of the economy had a direct effect on many people’s lives and had little to do with external factors.

I blame the anti growth alliance myself.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Election Prediction

That Pritti Patel is a complete back stabber

Mind you if it messes up the tory party It's fine by me

Incredible that Tory toys are still being thrown out of Tory prams over Brexit.

[Dorcus]

Re: Election Prediction

Incredible that Tory toys are still being thrown out of Tory prams over Brexit.

It will never be pure enough for some.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Election Prediction

Incredible that Tory toys are still being thrown out of Tory prams over Brexit.

Providing constant reminders to people who voted to Get Brexit Done" that a cabal of fundamentalists will not rest until their unique version of what Brexit is supposed to mean is implemented is really stupid politics. They can't seem to stop themselves though.

[Elwood Blues]

Re: Election Prediction

Interestingly, Labour have been denying they would negotiate with the SNP and more coy when it comes to what would happen with the Lib Dem’s. I’d be surprised if it is true, but, apparently, Labour’s manifesto will not carry a promise to bring in PR, but, again, they’re being less forthright about what happens after that.

I don’t like making political predictions, but, after last week’s elections, a Conservative majority Government looks like a bit of a long shot.

The results in this years locals are very similar terms of seats won and lost as in 1991.

Look what happened in 1992.

[Wash DC Blue]

Re: Election Prediction

Is there any way that Labour could get Mick Lynch involved and fast tracked as a candidate and potential cabinet member.
Would he be interested?

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Election Prediction

The results in this years locals are very similar terms of seats won and lost as in 1991.

Look what happened in 1992.

Except in 1991 Labour had 38% share of the vote to the Conservative 35%. This included the last time Wales voted in local elections which presumably inflated the overall numbers for Labour and diluted the Conservative given the historic tendency of Independent candidates to be supported by Tories.

A year later in the General election John Major squeezed to a razor thin overall majority on a swing against the local elections of around 3.5%.

The similar figures, for England only, a couple of weeks ago were Labour 38% to Conservative 26%. No-one is saying, particularly with boundary changes being less favourable to Labour next time, that this is a foregone conclusion. It is a bigger hill for Sunak to climb that the one Major crested though!

[jon1959]

Re: Election Prediction

Is there any way that Labour could get Mick Lynch involved and fast tracked as a candidate and potential cabinet member.
Would he be interested?

Mick Lynch has said he is not a Marxist, but James Connolly is his political hero and inspiration. He is a socialist.

There is no way that Starmer - or the wider 'leadership' of the Labour Party - would welcome Mick Lynch as an MP or future minister.

Lynch also supports workers in struggle, and believes in collectivism. He wouldn't be allowed near a Labour parliamentary shortlist.

[Dorcus]

Re: Election Prediction

Mick Lynch has said he is not a Marxist, but James Connolly is his political hero and inspiration. He is a socialist.

There is no way that Starmer - or the wider 'leadership' of the Labour Party - would welcome Mick Lynch as an MP or future minister.

Lynch also supports workers in struggle, and believes in collectivism. He wouldn't be allowed near a Labour parliamentary shortlist.

Such a pity though I wasn't keen on his Brexit stance.

[Wash DC Blue]

Re: Election Prediction

Such a pity though I wasn't keen on his Brexit stance.

I was and many traditional Labour voters were.
His trade union background, eloquence and support of the Working Class should make him an excellent candidate.

[Elwood Blues]

Re: Election Prediction

Except in 1991 Labour h7ad 38% share of the vote to the Conservative 35%. This included the last time Wales voted in local elections which presumably inflated the overall numbers for Labour and diluted the Conservative given the historic tendency of Independent candidates to be supported by Tories.

A year later in the General election John Major squeezed to a razor thin overall majority on a swing against the local elections of around 3.5%.

The similar figures, for England only, a couple of weeks ago were Labour 38% to Conservative 26%. No-one is saying, particularly with boundary changes being less favourable to Labour next time, that this is a foregone conclusion. It is a bigger hill for Sunak to climb that the one Major crested though!

36% - 29% according to the figures I read, but I take your point

I would argue that Kinnick was a more charismatic leader than Starmer (by far) but as I recall his big mistake was the triumphalist rally which took place just before the election which seemed to have a marked effect on the result.

We have seen the Tories SNP and Plaid all implode to a degree in the last few months. Starmer must hope that something similar does not happen to Labour, as I think the support of many voters for Labour is fragile.