Latest Opinion Polls

[JamesWales]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

This is why I am trying to let you down gently

Yesterday you said .....after just 2 polls that were slightly off kilter ......that the polls were tightening

Maybe you got excited !

But they wernt .....tonight 3 have got back in line and the latest again shows a huge labour lead

That's what I was referring to , I don't read your posts in any detail these days

God you are the most infuriating man! 🤣

I said that the polls have tightened slightly, which is a statement of fact (I know you hate those things) but that it will make no difference as it's still well above what Labour lost by in 2019, and then I went on to say why I think Rishi Sunak made some mistakes etc.

You make any kind of balanced or nuanced debate utterly impossible. Firstly you view a statement of fact as a partisan opinion and then anything that isn't entirely black and white and in alignment with your vision you take as a huge endorsement.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Polls have tightened slightly, although far too late to change the outcome noticeably.

Labour now "only" 15pts ahead compared to 20+, but remember the trouncing Labour received in 2019 happened when they were 11.5% behind.

Sunak has made several errors. The most glaring being to call the damned thing in the first place when early autumn would likely have seen significantly better economic news (possible rate cut, people more used to sustained lower inflation etc etc). The D Day own goal was absolutely ridiculous too.

But he has done well in the debates and he has impressed me in the last week, coming across quite forthright.

Only two days to go anyway, although it doesn't feel it. I have never seen less placards about or general chit chat about the election in work etc

15 points ahead? Think you're indulging in a spot of wishful thinking there. I agree the Tories have recovered some ground in recent days, this seems to be on the back of the Reform figures falling slightly along with a drop in Labour's share, presumably to the likes of the the Greens, Lib Dems and, possibly, Reform. However, the average lead for Labour was still running at 20 per cent yesterday when I looked at the BBC's poll of polls and the Guardian had it at the same.

Since then, there have been three more polls according to this video and I'd guess the Labour lead has slipped back a further point, maybe two, but it's a long way from 15.

The MRP poll from yesterday shows Labour dropping slightly and the Tories having an increase, but it still shows the Tories having a horrible night tomorrow with them only scraping past the Lib Dems by three seats. I can't see it being proved right, but it does show that although the Conservatives are, seemingly, seeing off the Reform challenge, it can still turn out to be a disaster for them in terms of seats won - if the result turns out to be anything like predicted in that poll, there has to be serious discussions about ditching the first past the post system for something which is more truly representative of what the population votes for.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

You like being dictated to do you? Almost half of all drivers in wales signed a petition about the 20 mph, just dismissed. Representing the people my arse…..Tories in disguise. You like fishing vote green

Welsh Labour have plenty of faults ......including the last and latest leaders

But they are absolutely nothing like the Tories

[Rjk]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Welsh Labour have plenty of faults ......including the last and latest leaders

But they are absolutely nothing like the Tories

Also the Senydd are pretty irrelevant to this election - this is about control of westminster

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Also the Senydd are pretty irrelevant to this election - this is about control of westminster

Absolutely but lots of people vote on party lines in any election

It worries me that starmer is shaking hands with VG in Wales

He should be locked away somewhere , the blokes not going to get any votes

[TWGL1]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

reFoRm expected to get 10- 12m votes :yikes::cry:

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

reFoRm expected to get 10- 12m votes :yikes::cry:

Crikey, thats more than Labour got last time with 32% of the vote and only a few million less than Johnson got at 44%. You haven't been to one of those funny stats sites again have you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Just to clarify that point.

If you take last GE total electorate of 48m of which two thirds actually voted and multiply that by Reform's higher estimate of 16% of the vote you get around 5m votes.

Obviously if someone was stupid enough to take every man woman and child in the UK and take 16% of that then you get, well somewhere between 10 and 12 million:yikes:

[TWGL1]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Just to clarify that point.

If you take last GE total electorate of 48m of which two thirds actually voted and multiply that by Reform's higher estimate of 16% of the vote you get around 5m votes.

Obviously if someone was stupid enough to take every man woman and child in the UK and take 16% of that then you get, well somewhere between 10 and 12 million:yikes:

Well no dramas , you find out tomorrow, bookmark your calculations, it really is that easy :thumbup:

Bless

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

reFoRm expected to get 10- 12m votes :yikes::cry:

From which source ?

[JamesWales]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

There's no way Reform will get that many votes.

5m maybe. 10-12m voters would typically win you the General Election

[TWGL1]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

There's no way Reform will get that many votes.

5m maybe. 10-12m voters would typically win you the General Election

:thumbup:

[Wales-Bales]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

apart from you right? you're so clever you've worked it all out. Well done you.

You only have to see it once, so it's not that big a deal, but you should be aware that it influences everything around you.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

There's no way Reform will get that many votes.

5m maybe. 10-12m voters would typically win you the General Election

Based on a statement that "reFoRm expected to get 10- 12m votes" that would put Weston Super Mare at risk!

[JamesWales]

Re: Latest Opinion Polls

Based on a statement that "reFoRm expected to get 10- 12m votes" that would put Weston Super Mare at risk!

I was going to say something disparaging about Weston Super Mare then, but remarkably, I have never been there so it seems very unfair