Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

How not to quote your sources

I noticed that link just in time

Don't known what happened there because I definitely copied the programme url, but then it seemed to have a mind of its own when it came to paste!

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

One other reason is that more people are being tested.

And are daily cases rising? Looking at the figures, it seems fairly constant for the UK over the past few weeks.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Edit: this might show it better

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

One other reason is that more people are being tested.

Yes, I get that but even in spike areas like Leicester although there was a big jump in cases it doesn't seem to have been mirrored by deaths.
It's clearly not a bad thing but I wonder how (if it continues) it will affect the thinking of politicians and scientists.

[jon1959]

Re: Coronavirus update

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

There were a lot of stories about a month ago about people who had recovered from Covid 19 (maybe some who had the virus but showed few or no symptoms) who had significant long term damage to organs - heart and lungs if I remember rightly. Those stories seem to have dried up - maybe the numbers involved were not that big, I don't know - but I don't think we should only be looking at numbers of deaths to assess the impact.

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yes, I get that but even in spike areas like Leicester although there was a big jump in cases it doesn't seem to have been mirrored by deaths.
It's clearly not a bad thing but I wonder how (if it continues) it will affect the thinking of politicians and scientists.

But that's the point. Those people had the virus regardless, and the same number of people would have died regardless. Better testing means that more people will be found to have the virus, so cases will go up.

Testing finds the people who have milder forms of covid.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

There were a lot of stories about a month ago about people who had recovered from Covid 19 (maybe some who had the virus but showed few or no symptoms) who had significant long term damage to organs - heart and lungs if I remember rightly. Those stories seem to have dried up - maybe the numbers involved were not that big, I don't know - but I don't think we should only be looking at numbers of deaths to assess the impact.

I agree with you but it is a large increase in deaths with will really grab the headlines. Nothing as good as bad news!!
As I mentioned, my concern is that if it stops killing people it may have the effect of scientists becoming less urgently looking for a vaccine, and that would be very bad.

On another note China reported that they have had a case of a person dying from Bubonic plague. There's a thought!!

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

The peak for new cases in the USA has definitely occurred in the last month as can be seen here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

but that page also shows you are right because although deaths have risen in the last few weeks, the peak for them definitely occurred during the "first wave" which was based around New York back in March/April and I'd say that the figures would be showing a sign by of climbing to April levels by now if they were going to do so.

While it takes a level of expertise beyond us on here to make a convincing case that this apparent dilution of the virus' ability to kill humans is down to it mutating into something less lethal (I'm unaware of any study saying this is the case anyway), I'd say that, certainly, in westernised countries that are experiencing a resurgence of cases, there is quite a bit of evidence out there that the more likely Covid sufferer this time around is younger than your typical victim in the late winter/spring, so that should equate to less deaths.

I'd also say that there are a few treatments proven to be effective against fighting the virus out there now which were not recognised as such a few months ago, so I'd say there are two reasons which are backed by research which confirms the suppositions behind them, so I'd say they are more likely causes for the lower number of deaths than a mutation to something less powerful in the virus.

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

Why don't you quote where you copy and paste from, as is normal etiquette, and so that readers can know whether you are posting original thoughts or if you are simply copy and pasting (and seemingly passing off other content as your own)?

We usually have a few clues to go on though, I know....

To be honest I thought I had ,as a title, apologies for the mistake , what I intended to do was write something like (positive news ) then ""
Humble apologies.

Either way it's positive news I guess , unless other agendas are at play with whatever or however I post ,as my grammatical skills have been picked apart as its not a skill set I own I therefore try post something that aligns to my thoughts or has a positive or counter balance reasoning .

Again humble apologies I didn't realise there was such high level scrutiny on a board that is supposed to be of a light nature and allow the odd mistake or blip ,I will promise to do better 🤭 😐🙄

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

The peak for new cases in the USA has definitely occurred in the last month as can be seen here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

but that page also shows you are right because although deaths have risen in the last few weeks, the peak for them definitely occurred during the "first wave" which was based around New York back in March/April and I'd say that the figures would be showing a sign by of climbing to April levels by now if they were going to do so.

While it takes a level of expertise beyond us on here to make a convincing case that this apparent dilution of the virus' ability to kill humans is down to it mutating into something less lethal (I'm unaware of any study saying this is the case anyway), I'd say that, certainly, in westernised countries that are experiencing a resurgence of cases, there is quite a bit of evidence out there that the more likely Covid sufferer this time around is younger than your typical victim in the late winter/spring, so that should equate to less deaths.

I'd also say that there are a few treatments proven to be effective against fighting the virus out there now which were not recognised as such a few months ago, so I'd say there are two reasons which are backed by research which confirms the suppositions behind them, so I'd say they are more likely causes for the lower number of deaths than a mutation to something less powerful in the virus.

I wonder if the virus could weaken, as we know they mutate ?

Didn't SARS burn out ?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

The peak for new cases in the USA has definitely occurred in the last month as can be seen here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

but that page also shows you are right because although deaths have risen in the last few weeks, the peak for them definitely occurred during the "first wave" which was based around New York back in March/April and I'd say that the figures would be showing a sign by of climbing to April levels by now if they were going to do so.

While it takes a level of expertise beyond us on here to make a convincing case that this apparent dilution of the virus' ability to kill humans is down to it mutating into something less lethal (I'm unaware of any study saying this is the case anyway), I'd say that, certainly, in westernised countries that are experiencing a resurgence of cases, there is quite a bit of evidence out there that the more likely Covid sufferer this time around is younger than your typical victim in the late winter/spring, so that should equate to less deaths.

I'd also say that there are a few treatments proven to be effective against fighting the virus out there now which were not recognised as such a few months ago, so I'd say there are two reasons which are backed by research which confirms the suppositions behind them, so I'd say they are more likely causes for the lower number of deaths than a mutation to something less powerful in the virus.

I can't find a reference now but I did read it somewhere, probably the BBC on line news. Apparently there is evidence of this happening with viruses previously. What ever the reason it cannot be a bad thing.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

I wonder if the virus could weaken, as we know they mutate ?

Didn't SARS burn out ?

Yes, that has happened in the past and I've read on a few occasions experts saying that it is best for the virus' long term survival for it to become something that can find human hosts without killing as many of them. Hopefully, that will happen again this time, but, for now, while it is good news that not as many as might have been expected are dying in America, it seems to me that there are more credible reasons as to why this is the case than it being down to the virus mutating into something less harmful to us. Wouldn't such a mutation take longer than a few months?

[Heisenberg]

Re: Coronavirus update

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

Haven't they stopped providing the full data on Covid deaths since July 17th as they are "investigating" how they will be recording them in future... Or have I got that totally wrong?

Also, I've no idea how much it would be affecting the numbers but I wonder whether the fact that most care homes are still in some sort of lockdown are having an impact on the number of deaths at present.

A large number of deaths were attributed to untested patients being transferred to care homes, so I would suggest that's it's a factor in the current numbers. If it started spreading through care homes again then I think we would be seeing a much higher death rate. Thankfully, that doesn't look like happening.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Haven't they stopped providing the full data on Covid deaths since July 17th as they are "investigating" how they will be recording them in future... Or have I got that totally wrong?

Also, I've no idea how much it would be affecting the numbers but I wonder whether the fact that most care homes are still in some sort of lockdown are having an impact on the number of deaths at present.

A large number of deaths were attributed to untested patients being transferred to care homes, so I would suggest that's it's a factor in the current numbers. If it started spreading through care homes again then I think we would be seeing a much higher death rate. Thankfully, that doesn't look like happening.

The government web page with the graphs we all learned to know and love has stopped updating but the numbers are still reported daily.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Daily UK new cases and deaths figures can be found here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/