Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Tuerto]

Re: Coronavirus update

Then maybe you should have read it without the intention of picking holes for your mission to win on a football messageboard - you got Organ Morgan so you are on a (t)roll.

Let me join the dots for you.

The virus is rampant in my part of the country. There are, roughly, 1 in 53 people with the virus. Why? Because there is practically no adherence to the guidelines from a sizeable portion of the area (my parent's neighbours being just one example, I could point out others but would be accused of curtain twitching I guess). Once you accept that the virus is spread by person to person contact, and most infections occur in households (Robert Koch institute Oct 27) - then you quickly realise that enough people saw the one house bubble and made it more - so the only option is to close those bubbles.

The result, people who comply with one household become zero household bubbles (cutting their risk), the people who weren't complying with one household bubble continue to be non-compliers anyway. Yes, the stricter rules technically apply to us all (to cut contacts and reduce risk), but the Government knows there are those that try to do as much as the guidelines say, and those who are ignorant and stricter guidelines will have minimal impact on that group.

The only measures that reduce this are the closing of public venues but that has already been done. No football matches for you to boycott, for example, for 9 months. Pubs have been shut for 6 weeks or more. Gyms have just shut, not sure when cinemas were last open and so on.

The point I was making, and perhaps not well, but then I've never been a writer nor felt important enough to blog about shooting from the lip, is that only I could visit my parents Christmas Day because of the guidelines. My sister could not. Our risk, when we talked about it, was low because she works from home, her boyfriend is home with long-term illness, I work from home, and my son has been home from school since the first week of December. On the other hand, my parent's neighbours have rarely followed the guidelines and so individually they pose a greater risk to the old guy than we pose to our parents. Since many people are asymptomatic, we decided not to take the risk - I've been in a bubble with my parents on and off for 3-4 months because of my son.

It will be interesting if you decide to talk about the points above like a grown man, or if you continue with your vanity project of winning on a messageboard.

You make some very good points, and i agree in how the virus has been spreading (through people not following the Bubble guidelines) As For your spat with TLG, i'd say that it's you that is following him about the messageboard and making personal comments. It sort of devalues some of the very good points you make.

[Allez Allez Allez]

Re: Coronavirus update

You said: "Strict rules have to be put on people who are compliant to compensate for people like this who will not follow any rules anyway."

Your point was nonsense. It's no more complicated than that.

Are you able to explain why?

[Allez Allez Allez]

Re: Coronavirus update

You make some very good points, and i agree in how the virus has been spreading (through people not following the Bubble guidelines) As For your spat with TLG, i'd say that it's you that is following him about the messageboard and making personal comments. It sort of devalues some of the very good points you make.

Fair enough, although seeing one person publicly singling out another poster with by starting not one, but two (at least) threads on a platform that allows Private Messenging is a tad frustrating isn't it?

[The Lone Gunman]

Re: Coronavirus update

Are you able to explain why?

Certainly.

You have maintained that strict rules have to be put on people who are compliant to compensate for people who will not follow any rules anyway. To me, that is illogical.

Let's take the example of the Christmas household 'bubbles'. The government originally said that up to three households could mix over Christmas, safe in the knowledge that a significant percentage of the population would ignore that rule and do whatever they wanted to do anyway. Then they reduced the restriction to two households following a spike in infections, once again safe in the knowledge that a significant percentage of the population would ignore that rule and do whatever they wanted to do anyway.

You seem to be assuming that the spike in infections occurred mostly among people who are non-compliant with the Covid-19 guidelines and, therefore, further restrictions had to be placed upon the compliant to compensate for them. I can understand your thinking to a degree, but there doesn't appear to be any definitive proof as regards where transmission is currently occurring (apart from in hospitals and care homes) and that is why the virus is proving so difficult to control.

As you have said yourself, the government allow for a degree of non-compliance and fatigue whenever they implement restrictions or offer up guidelines. However, when you consider how the vast majority of us have been living our lives for many months and how society has been behaving as a whole, and yet how the virus has surged again in recent times, it's clear that they are running out of ideas and that's not altogether surprising because the situation is obviously nowhere near as simple as you're making it sound.

[Tuerto]

Re: Coronavirus update

Fair enough, although seeing one person publicly singling out another poster with by starting not one, but two (at least) threads on a platform that allows Private Messenging is a tad frustrating isn't it?

Well, i don't think that the Organ Morgan thread was intended as an attack, that's how i see it, and i suppose if we take into account OM's ability to bat criticism off and give as good as he gets then i'm sure that it wouldn't have been taken that way. As for the spat with Sludge, that's unfortunate because both TLG and Sludge have known each other for years, good mates, regularly taking the piss out or one another. I certainly wouldn't go down the personal route on here, others do, i don't particularly like it, although there may be a bit of background stuff that we don't know about. I know TLG and he's a sound bloke so it's difficult for me to be to critical because i know his personality. I also know sludge, but not so well, he's a really nice bloke with good intentions. He has been a bit full on at times on here in my opinion, but it's sort of understandable given his circumstances. I just hope that it sorts itself out.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Over 4,000 new cease in Wales and over 70 dead. There were 900 plus new cases in RCT and Blaenau Gwent, but these poor figures can be partially explained by the fact there were about three times as many tests as on a normal day - presumably there’s a degree of catching up in the figures after Christmas;-

https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Fair enough, although seeing one person publicly singling out another poster with by starting not one, but two (at least) threads on a platform that allows Private Messenging is a tad frustrating isn't it?

Why do you feel the need to defend sludge? He is big and ugly enough to fend for himself. Perhaps its because you just think because others were having a go at TLG you thought you could jump in, but you exposed yourself as being a troll by showing you knew far more about him than a relatively new poster would, including knowing where watched the game from in the stadium.
So perhaps it was more about having a go at him than defending anyone else.

But then, what do I know?

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

Fair enough, although seeing one person publicly singling out another poster with by starting not one, but two (at least) threads on a platform that allows Private Messenging is a tad frustrating isn't it?

no more frustrating than someone who continually makes new profiles for themselves I'd say

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

Sounds like uncle Tony's idea of a single vacine to more folk is gathering traction , as one vacine gives 91% two gets 95% protection so the calculation is between giving 4% more , than a lot more folk vaccinated earlier in a first tranch .

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

Over 4,000 new cease in Wales and over 70 dead. There were 900 plus new cases in RCT and Blaenau Gwent, but these poor figures can be partially explained by the fact there were about three times as many tests as on a normal day - presumably there’s a degree of catching up in the figures after Christmas;-

https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...eadlinesummary

Wished we had been more severe than Boris and shut all the pubs and stopped that non essential buying

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Wished we had been more severe than Boris and shut all the pubs and stopped that non essential buying

They did shut the pubs didn’t they? Dec 5th?

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

They did shut the pubs didn’t they? Dec 5th?

I was being ironic , Wales has administered much harsher measures and still the bad boy virus got to many , i'm just preying our economy survives and jobs losses wont hurt the needy .

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Sounds like uncle Tony's idea of a single vacine to more folk is gathering traction , as one vacine gives 91% two gets 95% protection so the calculation is between giving 4% more , than a lot more folk vaccinated earlier in a first tranch .

Lots of figures around regarding % protection after one dose, but I understand the majority opinion is that it is 50% effective.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Wished we had been more severe than Boris and shut all the pubs and stopped that non essential buying

And just imagine what it would have been like if the WAG had been as lax as Johnson has been throughout the year.

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Over 4,000 new cease in Wales and over 70 dead. There were 900 plus new cases in RCT and Blaenau Gwent, but these poor figures can be partially explained by the fact there were about three times as many tests as on a normal day - presumably there’s a degree of catching up in the figures after Christmas;-

https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...eadlinesummary

We know the the first of the long awaited vaccines is available and Wales has had its initial share. Shame is that we have given less doses than the other three home nations. Today's Echo says that up to 23 December Wales has vaccinated 1 in 140 of the population, N Ireland 1 in 75, Scotland 1 in 96 and England 1 in 107. The WG says it is difficult to transport in rural areas and they have limited ability to get it into care homes, but, there is no shortage of vaccine.
N.Ireland has managed 8,000 jabs into care homes maybe we can learn from them.
Our leaders say they are waiting for the AZ vaccine and plan a major push. Meanwhile we have some horrific case figures and deaths here in Wales. Every day counts and the population is asked to make big sacrifices on freedom whilst our leaders can't work around using the vaccines they already have to protect the people of Wales.
I watched on TV the fleets of dedicated vans leaving Berlin yesterday to inject those in German nursing homes and wondered why we seem incapable of something similar. I'm right peed off with Gethin and Drakeford.