The Budget

[Rjk]

Re: The Budget

if you're going to quote Ireland and its GDP, then be honest about it and explain that a significant portion of it is a result of the double Irish, meaning whilst the economic activity of the likes of Facebook, Google etc is nominally part of the Irish GDP, its hardly taxed in Ireland and it doesn't transpose to wealth for Ireland.

If you strip out the GDP included as a result of the double Irish, then Ireland is nowhere near as prosperous as the UK.

A few points about Wales:

we have a fiscal deficit of £15bn per annum;

our GDP is about £70bn;

if we taxed at 40%, we'd need to generate £37.5bn more economic activity to increase our tax base by £15bn. That means we would need to increase the size of our economy by more than 50%;

In Wales, 1 in 4 work in the public sector. That's 375,000 workers. In the UK it is 1 in 5. To match the UK in terms of cost and efficiency, we would need to lose 75,000 public sector jobs;

We can't generate a 50% uplift in our economy from selling water and wind to England;

we are not going to replace 75,000 public sector workers with private sector employment;

Wales will be an economic basket case, 3rd world within a generation.

the economic numbers just do not stack up. Quoting Ireland is folly because its GDP is vastly inflated due to the likes of Facebook et al.

of course we wouldn't be a 3rd world nation within a generation.

if we stay in the UK, we will always be the poorest part of the UK.
when northern Ireland and Scotland leave, which is only a matter of time, we will be a forgotten part of England.
Ireland has prospered far more outside of the Union than it would have inside the union - yes it took a long time.

an independent report i just read suggested that the defect could start at around 15% and be closed in 10 years, debt peaking at 73% of GDP.

[City123]

Re: The Budget

of course we wouldn't be a 3rd world nation within a generation.

if we stay in the UK, we will always be the poorest part of the UK.
when northern Ireland and Scotland leave, which is only a matter of time, we will be a forgotten part of England.
Ireland has prospered far more outside of the Union than it would have inside the union - yes it took a long time.

an independent report i just read suggested that the defect could start at around 15% and be closed in 10 years, debt peaking at 73% of GDP.

I've never really understood why some people seem to think "Wales has been underdeveloped in the UK" is a good argument to stay in the union

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

of course we wouldn't be a 3rd world nation within a generation.

where is all this money coming from to plug the £15bn gap per annum?

if we stay in the UK, we will always be the poorest part of the UK.
when northern Ireland and Scotland leave, which is only a matter of time, we will be a forgotten part of England.
Ireland has prospered far more outside of the Union than it would have inside the union - yes it took a long time.

with all due respect Ireland is not as prosperous as you make out. Yes it has billions added to its GDP by virtue Amazon, Facebook and Google's EAME operations are based there, but that does not translate to wealth within Ireland. The aforementioned companies pay less than 1% corporation tax in Ireland, hardly contributing to taxes.

an independent report i just read suggested that the defect could start at around 15% and be closed in 10 years, debt peaking at 73% of GDP.

Can we see this report? As it stands, the deficit of £15bn is around 20% of GDP, now bear in mind, during the Greek sovereign Debt Crisis, government borrowing peaked at 10% of GDP. You appear to be advocating starting in a situation between 1.5-2x as bad as the Greeks found themselves in ten years ago.

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

I've never really understood why some people seem to think "Wales has been underdeveloped in the UK" is a good argument to stay in the union

because we don't have much in the way of any industry that can support a successful economy that we can tax to provide adequate public services.

[Elwood Blues]

Re: The Budget

You might not rate Johnson more than other party leaders perhaps, but it seems that you're still "probably" going to vote for him. Bearing that in mind, I see you're saying Nicola Sturgeon should resign if certain things happen on a matter that has now been ruled on yet. Contrast that to your attitude towards the party you consistently and will "probably" vote for again with its leader who will not tell voters how many children he has fathered, has been sacked from a national newspaper for lying, has used phrases which can be considered racist in articles he's written and has had a conversation with a convicted fraudster about having a News of the World reporter beaten up. This man, who sets himself up as a "man of the people" has, reportedly, been continuously bleating about how his £150k a year salary is not enough and so is looking to set up a charity to have the flat at 10 Downing Street renovated at a cost of £200k when the maximum allowed public grant is £30,000.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9339115/Boris-Johnson-refuses-say-paying-Carrie-Symonds-200-000-Downing-Street-flat-refurb.html

That man leads a Government which includes a Chancellor who promoted a "Eat Out to help out" scheme offering half price restaurant meals that came into force days after Chris Whitty had said “We have probably reached near the limits, or the limits, of what we can do in terms of opening up society,”. This was at a time when SAGE was saying that they had no confidence that R was still below one - see link posted by Surge in the Coronavirus thread for more on this.

Also in this Government is a Home Secretary who had to resign her previous Cabinet job over unauthorised meetings with the Israeli Government which breached the Ministerial Code and an Education Secretary, widely regarded as incompetent in his current job, who had to resign his job as Defence Secretary amid allegations of leaking confidential National Security information. Besides that, there's a Health Secretary who was judged to have "breached his legal obligation" by not publishing details within 30 days of contracts being signed - a man who awards very lucrative contrasts to the landlord of his local pub!

Despite all of this, it appears that you're inclined to give the Government the benefit of the doubt - as it would appear are very many who voted for them fifteen months despite a horrendous death toll from the pandemic in which the latest excuse for the Conservatives made by their apologists is that we're all too fat. To me, that displays exactly the sort of thinking that I mentioned earlier that people in the valleys are often accused of when it comes to casting their vote.

Oh so I am just one of those donkeys am I?

Actually I am a bit annoyed about that. I have made it plain that I have given some thought to this and will when the time comes an and election is called will think about it again, so I am definitely NOT one of those people you mention because the point about them is that they give NO THOUGHT WHATSOEVER when they cast their vote.

I will respond more fully when I have more time and have calmed down a bit

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

Oh so I am just one of those donkeys am I?

Actually I am a bit annoyed about that. I have made it plain that I have given some thought to this and will when the time comes an and election is called will think about it again, so I am definitely NOT one of those people you mention because the point about them is that they give NO THOUGHT WHATSOEVER when they cast their vote.

I will respond more fully when I have more time and have calmed down a bit

TOBW is left wing and will always vote left wing. He's not as open minded as his criticism suggests. anyone who says they could never vote for one particular party really isn't in any position to criticise anyone else.

[Hilts]

Re: The Budget

TOBW is left wing and will always vote left wing. He's not as open minded as his criticism suggests. anyone who says they could never vote for one particular party really isn't in any position to criticise anyone else.

So you wouldn't rule out voting for say the BNP.?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: The Budget

Oh so I am just one of those donkeys am I?

Actually I am a bit annoyed about that. I have made it plain that I have given some thought to this and will when the time comes an and election is called will think about it again, so I am definitely NOT one of those people you mention because the point about them is that they give NO THOUGHT WHATSOEVER when they cast their vote.

I will respond more fully when I have more time and have calmed down a bit

I am absolutely amazed that given the situation with PIP that directly affects you and the crime of social care you would ever consider voting anything other than Liberal, Labour or one of the other parties .

I am staggered that decent people with intelligence such as yourself vote and prop up a party who directly through their policies are kicking you up the arse .

I find it bewildering . There is a shocking lack of opposition to the conservatives but continuing to vote for them isn't going to do anything for you in your position . In fact its going to make things far worse .

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Budget

TOBW is left wing and will always vote left wing. He's not as open minded as his criticism suggests. anyone who says they could never vote for one particular party really isn't in any position to criticise anyone else.

:hehe: I would take that seriously from some on here. but not from you. I took care in that post not to mention the Labour party and the only things I've said about them in my conversation with Elwood was to say that I don't rate the Shadow Cabinet very highly and that I think Starmer is "competent" and yet you talk about left wing politics. I voted Lib Dem in a general Election and can remember you telling me at the time of the 2010 election that they were a right wing party.

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

So you wouldn't rule out voting for say the BNP.?

parties ebb and flow in their policies. if the BNP revisited their policies regarding bigotry and hatred, and became more mainstream, then I'd consider voting for them based on their manifesto. But just to be clear, their current outlook doesn't resonate with me.

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

:hehe: I would take that seriously from some on here. but not from you.

I'm hiding the pain.

I took care in that post not to mention the Labour party and the only things I've said about them in my conversation with Elwood was to say that I don't rate the Shadow Cabinet very highly and that I think Starmer is "competent" and yet you talk about left wing politics. I voted Lib Dem in a general Election and can remember you telling me at the time of the 2010 election that they were a right wing party.

Firstly, I never mentioned the Labour party, i said you were left wing. Secondly, he libdems are a broad church but are pretty centre left overall. As my comment above to Hilts, parties ebb and flow. The libdems under Clegg were certainly more to the right than usual, whether I said they were right wing, I just can't remember so I'll take your word for it.

[Hilts]

Re: The Budget

parties ebb and flow in their policies. if the BNP revisited their policies regarding bigotry and hatred, and became more mainstream, then I'd consider voting for them based on their manifesto. But just to be clear, their current outlook doesn't resonate with me.

Fair enough . I know id never vote BNP myself.

[Feedback]

Re: The Budget

Fair enough . I know id never vote BNP myself.

So if the BNP discarded it's 1970s NF policies and suddenly adopted social democracy at its core you would still say no?

[jon1959]

Re: The Budget

I'll assume you read my post but failed to take on board that in the UK 1 in every 5 workers is a public sector worker, but in Wales this is 1 in 4. So we have 75k more public sector jobs than the UK average. If we do not collect more in taxes to pay for them, then either we lose those jobs or they are replaced by the private sector.

Yes I read your post and it took me back to many wasted hours arguing the toss with you years back.

You have an entrenched 'ideological' view of public and private sector jobs that is often unrelated to reality.

Basically you seem to think that: private sector = good = productive = tax generating; whilst public sector = bad = unproductive = tax consuming.

Years back I asked you how this applied to a Council plumber or a hospital cleaner who one day are tax paying, public sector, productive workers (one funded by local tenant rents and the other by general taxation) and the next day are TUPE transferred to a private sector contractor. They are still productive, tax paying workers doing essential jobs. They are both funded by tenant rents or general taxation (via a contract fee to the private sector company). The only difference is that (generally) their pay and conditions will be worse - if not immediately then after a few years - and any surplus in revenues will go to private sector shareholders and not into improved service.

So the answer is no - we don't need to replace public sector jobs with private sector jobs. It would be better if insecure private sector jobs were transferred (back) into the public sector.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Budget

So if the BNP discarded it's 1970s NF policies and suddenly adopted social democracy at its core you would still say no?

You're just being deliberatively argumentative now. I agree with you that nearly all political parties have ebbs and flows, but you're talking about a tsunami there!