Senedd election prediction

[City123]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Pollsters sometimes get it wrong but everything points to Labour being the dominant party , propped up in a coalition by the Welsh nationalist Party who are likely to come third behind the tories

If that tells you there is a growing movement for Welsh independence then that doesn't transmit to Welsh peoples voting habits , more people in Wales would rather vote tory than for plaid cymru ?

What does that tell you about this growing movement for Welsh independence ?

I know what it tells me

Polling has gone up dramatically in the past few years and is solidly in the 20s/30s, its hit the point that's its not a complete fringe issue anymore. Even if it doesn't transmit to a vote for Plaid in this one election, held under exceptional circumstances, that's still a better position than it was in this time 5 years ago

Is it really that hard for you to accept that its in a better place than it was? All the polling data is better than it was, more people are coming round to it as a possibility and its even being discussed by the London media. One disappointing result in an election that's been held in spite of us being lockdowns for a year doesn't change the fact that it is growing

[life on mars]

Re: Senedd election prediction

tories will win more seats than plaid

Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto

Replace them with what all developed politicians remind me of the difference between championship players v premiership ones , I'm sure they mean well though .

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

People who vote for other parties support Welsh independence. Independence has not been an issue in this election, lockdowns and dislike of Drakeford have been.

To suggest Plaid's vote is representative of independence support is utter bollocks.

Very few

Plaid offers a clear option , if independence was as strong as you and other nationalists want it to be , then the vote wouldn't be trailing behind the tories

You are kidding yourself but carry on

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Polling has gone up dramatically in the past few years and is solidly in the 20s/30s, its hit the point that's its not a complete fringe issue anymore. Even if it doesn't transmit to a vote for Plaid in this one election, held under exceptional circumstances, that's still a better position than it was in this time 5 years ago

Is it really that hard for you to accept that its in a better place than it was? All the polling data is better than it was, more people are coming round to it as a possibility and its even being discussed by the London media. One disappointing result in an election that's been held in spite of us being lockdowns for a year doesn't change the fact that it is growing

Time to walk the walk

People have the opportunity to vote for a one direction pro independence party

Today

Forget all the marches and opinion polls

Let's have it

My money says plaid vote is less than the tories

[Trigger]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Labour will keep power.

Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Labour will keep power.

Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.

Labour is going to lose overall power and form a coalition with plaid cymru

The conservatives will pick up 5 seats at least

Labour need to boot drakeford out and shape up pronto

[xsnaggle]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Can I predict firstly that labour will not lose overall power because they don't have it to lose.........
and also predict that by the end of this thread 50% ish of the posts will have been by sludge.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Can I predict firstly that labour will not lose overall power because they don't have it to lose.........
and also predict that by the end of this thread 50% ish of the posts will have been by sludge.

well they have a majority in the Welsh assembly so what power it has , is theirs I would conclude

[Former Labour leader]

Re: Senedd election prediction

My prediction
Labour back a bit
Tories making gains(2016 UKIP vote goes to them)
Plaid treading water
26 L
18 T
14 P
2 Libs/Abolish

Labour will gain Rhondda and hold Llanelli. May lose Vale and Bridgend to Tories.

On a broader point, Plaid may be making loads of noise but are not breaking through to the broader electorate and are being squeezed by both Lab and Tory.

[Former Labour leader]

Re: Senedd election prediction

well they have a majority in the Welsh assembly so what power it has , is theirs I would conclude

Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.

Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition

[Lord Dargavel]

Re: Senedd election prediction

tories will win more seats than plaid

Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto

Although not worrying for everyone. The conservative voters won’t worry at all will they!

[Lord Dargavel]

Re: Senedd election prediction

What worries me more is somebody saying that a party need to get rid of their leaders. Doesn’t say much about the party does it?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition

Close, but no cigar!!!!

[xsnaggle]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I voted about an hour or so ago and I had a chat with one of the tellers whom I know. She has been working in my local polling station for a number of years and said she has never seen it so busy, even in General Elections.
She said the have had a queue all day albeit only 4 or 5 people but she has never ever seen a queue before and also that they normally use 1 ballot box and as we spoke they were currently on their third for the day.
I know there is extra paper because of the Police commissioner vote but even so there seems to be more people than usual bothering to cast their votes.

That cannot be a bad thing, but if it is mirrored across Wales who will benefit? That's the question?

I would just add that there was a small queue when I voted when I went in and when I came out and that was close to 8 PM, most unusual.