Senedd election prediction

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

cobblers

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded

dreamers

[Rjk]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Seems to have been a very high turnout this time around, in wales at least.
Doesn't seem to have been the case in England

[cityhammer]

Re: Senedd election prediction

One of the things that the polls won’t have included is the effect that queuing to vote might have had which might be crucial in some constituencies. A Labour voter faced with an hour queue May we’ll have given up thinking the seat was safe anyway, whereas others may have waited to vote.

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

[Feedback]

Re: Senedd election prediction

About 19,000.

Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that

so more people watch the blue brazil than want Welsh independence...

[Rjk]

Re: Senedd election prediction

so more people watch the blue brazil than want Welsh independence...

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

[Feedback]

Re: Senedd election prediction

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

you suck the joy out of everything

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

What a complete and utter cult

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.

[Rjk]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.

The real real test for devolution will be when Ireland is unified and Scotland has left the union.
Right now it's just about building a base of support - shooting the bolt too early would be a bad idea

[The Bloop]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?

Yeah, I found it quite creepy when looking at their videos. I believe they were promising to heal people.

Regarding independence, I agree that next five years should be about building support and resources that make it possible instead of setting a date to ask the question. People will be quick to tell you why it could never work so if you work on answers to that either people still say no and Wales is a better nation for work done or people say yes and better chance of success.