Election Prediction

[Dorcus]

Re: Election Prediction

36% - 29% according to the figures I read, but I take your point

I would argue that Kinnick was a more charismatic leader than Starmer (by far) but as I recall his big mistake was the triumphalist rally which took place just before the election which seemed to have a marked effect on the result.

We have seen the Tories SNP and Plaid all implode to a degree in the last few months. Starmer must hope that something similar does not happen to Labour, as I think the support of many voters for Labour is fragile.

It's the anti-Tory, tactical voting that will clinch it; the more the process gets organised the bigger the margin of victory.

[Elwood Blues]

Re: Election Prediction

It's the anti-Tory, tactical voting that will clinch it; the more the process gets organised the bigger the margin of victory.

I think it will have to be organised at a national level to have really big effect and Labour have never-ending particularly keen on the idea because it is more likely to lead to an hung parliament.

I'm not sure that giving EU citizens the right to vote here which I see Starmer seems to favour will do him much good.

It may give him extra seats in the south particularly around London, but it may reignite the Brexit effect in the Red Wall seats (which seems to be diminishing now as time goes by) if people start thinking he may try to unwind Brexit to a greater or lesser degree.

[Dorcus]

Re: Election Prediction

I think it will have to be organised at a national level to have really big effect and Labour have never-ending particularly keen on the idea because it is more likely to lead to an hung parliament.

I'm not sure that giving EU citizens the right to vote here which I see Starmer seems to favour will do him much good.

It may give him extra seats in the south particularly around London, but it may reignite the Brexit effect in the Red Wall seats (which seems to be diminishing now as time goes by) if people start thinking he may try to unwind Brexit to a greater or lesser degree.

I don't think Brexit will be a significant issue in the next election.

[Dorcus]

Re: Election Prediction

I think it will have to be organised at a national level to have really big effect and Labour have never-ending particularly keen on the idea because it is more likely to lead to an hung parliament.

I'm not sure that giving EU citizens the right to vote here which I see Starmer seems to favour will do him much good.

It may give him extra seats in the south particularly around London, but it may reignite the Brexit effect in the Red Wall seats (which seems to be diminishing now as time goes by) if people start thinking he may try to unwind Brexit to a greater or lesser degree.

I think an awful lot of people are rather hoping he WILL unwind Brexit if truth be told.

[The Bloop]

Re: Election Prediction

I'm sure she'll bag the win again without myself and Doris leaving the house, voting Labour would be endorsing them, I want them to bring it home but I don't want to say I voted for them, there are millions of politically homeless, to repeat its a uniparty and if you have to get up in the morning for a commute to work you are being fked over, if you are unfortunate as not being able to work its x 2.

Well just vote for them and don't tell anyone

That way you can be sure with certainty you have done your bit to keep the Tories out but nobody will know you have voted Labour

Everyone's a winner

If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Election Prediction

If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.

If I was someone in Conservative central office I would be relishing the prospect of Labour et al using tactical voting/coalation in the general election. Probably the 1 thing that would see Starmer and Labour out within 6 months.

[JamesWales]

Re: Election Prediction

If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.

Billy Bragg isn't really representative of the country though is he? Although I take your wider point. There's still a lot of politics to play mind

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.

I would vote liberals to get the Tories out

In fact if there was no chance of a labour government but my vote would ensure a coalition anti tory government by voting Liberal in my constituency or green or whatever .....I would do it

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

If I was someone in Conservative central office I would be relishing the prospect of Labour et al using tactical voting/coalation in the general election. Probably the 1 thing that would see Starmer and Labour out within 6 months.

I beg to differ

Lots of people will be doing it in marginal seats

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Election Prediction

The mood of the country seems to be more anti Tory than it is pro Labour - that certainly seemed to be the main conclusion to draw from the local elections anyway. Sites like these

https://tacticalvote.co.uk/

https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/tactical-voting/keep-out/conservative

make it easier for people considering voting tactically to find out how much it might affect the outcome in their constituency.

Another factor worth considering is how would people who voted tactically for a party to try and defeat the Conservatives feel if their choice of party then helped prop up a minority tory Government? I think the Lib Dems suffered because of that after the 2010 election.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

I genuinely wish we had a strong liberal party and they and the labour party would team up to keep the Tories out

It's embarrassing to see that Ed davey and the previous chinless wonder farron saying after by elections or council elections that they are serious potential government in waiting

Bin that nonsense and team up with labour

[The Bloop]

Re: Election Prediction

I genuinely wish we had a strong liberal party and they and the labour party would team up to keep the Tories out

It's embarrassing to see that Ed davey and the previous chinless wonder farron saying after by elections or council elections that they are serious potential government in waiting

Bin that nonsense and team up with labour

I still remember David Steel standing up at his party's conference telling delegates to 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government'.
Other than Clegg's effort in 2010, we're still waiting 🙂

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Election Prediction

I still remember David Steel standing up at his party's conference telling delegates to 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government'.
Other than Clegg's effort in 2010, we're still waiting 🙂

I would vote for a merged Labour and Liberal led moderate alternative to the tories

I think it would sweep up

I am sick to death of the opposition fannying about

[life on mars]

Re: Election Prediction

IPSOS Say :

UK Voting Intention (change since March)
Labour 44% (-5), Conservatives 28% (+2), Liberal Democrats 13% (+2), Green Party 6% (nc), Other 8% (nc)

Our latest Political Monitor release of 23 May shows that 2 in 3 Britons expect Labour to win most MPs at the next General Election.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Election Prediction

I beg to differ

Lots of people will be doing it in marginal seats

Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.