Senedd Election 2026

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

I do take notice of your opinion actually.

Any thoughts on those issues that the journalist chose to leave out?

If the death threats and arguably xenophobic graffiti was from Reform supporters to Plaid do you think she would have included them?

Probably, but I’ve not got a problem with a part of the mainstream national media holding Reform to account because they’ve been given an unbelievably easy ride so far. As for “f*ck off back home” comments, it’s only repeating what Reform’s Chief Whip said about migrants when he was in the Tory party.

[goats]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Rhun ap Iorwerth has proven to be a very good leader of Plaid tbh. I've been surprised, I thought Adam Price was good but he didn't seem to take people with him. Leanne Wood was useless, and unpleasant and prone to conflict too. Rhun ap Iorwerth is the total opposite.

He's done well to totally park the independence bus full in the knowledge that anyone for whom that is important is in the bag anyway. He can then pivot in other directions to take votes from disaffected Labour voters as well as those not ready to consider Tories again. I think they've done well to sweep up the idealistic youth vote too, and all the while avoid criticisms of being in power that can be thrown at Tories, Labour and SNP

I don't think they will win to the extent this poll says they will, and I think they will increasingly be scrutinized and rightly so, but you have to acknowledge their rise and what a quiet but effective operator the leader is.

Really? Good leader? What’s he ever done? Did I read he was just a journalist for the bbc?

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Probably, but I’ve not got a problem with a part of the mainstream national media holding Reform to account because they’ve been given an unbelievably easy ride so far. As for “f*ck off back home” comments, it’s only repeating what Reform’s Chief Whip said about migrants when he was in the Tory party.

I get that argument, but it's not a good thing in the long run for these articles to have to be so formulaic in presenting things as good or bad all the time

The things I raised are a legitimate part of the story, and a candidate reportedly getting 55 death threats and having to be moved from his home is something that I would say is worth noting, and maybe would result in people having a more measured opinion of some of the parties and characters involved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze6z332326o

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Really? Good leader? What’s he ever done? Did I read he was just a journalist for the bbc?

I'm not great fan of Plaid, but I do think at a local level they can be good councillors.

Nationally though, whether I am a fan or not I can recognise good leadership and Rhun ap Iorwerth seems to have that. He is fairly calm and measured and dare I say pleasant, in a way that certainly Leanne Wood was. He has also overseen an improvement in the polls so that does suggest something too.

Hes also parked his party's most divisive and risky issue - independence. He knows its a risk but he also knows he has those votes in the bag, so avoiding confrontation on it seems pretty wise really.

Id vote Labour, Lib Dem, Reform or Tory before Plaid, but he is a good leader imo.

[goats]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

I'm not great fan of Plaid, but I do think at a local level they can be good councillors.

Nationally though, whether I am a fan or not I can recognise good leadership and Rhun ap Iorwerth seems to have that. He is fairly calm and measured and dare I say pleasant, in a way that certainly Leanne Wood was. He has also overseen an improvement in the polls so that does suggest something too.

Hes also parked his party's most divisive and risky issue - independence. He knows its a risk but he also knows he has those votes in the bag, so avoiding confrontation on it seems pretty wise really.

Id vote Labour, Lib Dem, Reform or Tory before Plaid, but he is a good leader imo.

Yeah I guess it’s about leading and putting the right people in control of each dept….not like the current useless lot in control, Drakeford running finance ffs when he’s admitted he couldn’t care about economics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv7gj30vgmo

Clueless

[Feedback]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Just under a year to go until the next Senedd election, the first with the new expanded Senedd and ITV Wales have released a poll (in conjunction with Cardiff Uni & YouGov)

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-05-06/a-seismic-shift-in-welsh-politics-which-could-see-rhun-ap-iorwerth-as-fm

Plaid Cymru - 30%

Reform UK - 25%

Labour - 18%

Conservatives - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 7%

Green - 5%

Other - 2%

Using a seat calculator would supposedly result in: Plaid Cymru 36 seats, Reform 28, Labour 20, Conservatives 9, Lib Dems 2 and Greens 1. Plaid short of a majority by 13 seats

For Westminster the results were as follows
Plaid Cymru - 24%

Reform UK - 24%

Labour - 20%

Conservative - 13%

Liberal Democrats - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 2%

Its one poll but at a guess this is the first time Plaid Cymru have lead both a Senedd & Westminster poll? Its got to be the largest margin they've been ahead of Labour at the very least. Interesting times.

on those figures, if Plaid can't agree a coalition, there is nothing stopping the Tories and Reform forming their own (minority government).

[jon1959]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

on those figures, if Plaid can't agree a coalition, there is nothing stopping the Tories and Reform forming their own (minority government).

Those figures are from polls in May 2025.

The world has moved on.

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Those figures are from polls in May 2025.

The world has moved on.

Yeah I was confused why they popped up again.

I think Plaid will win the senedd election. Tempered by the Greens. Reform second, tempered by the Tories who are never that much in Wales but nationally Kemo Badenoch is becoming more impressive. I honestly have no idea how Labour will do, and then the Lib Dems in the mix too.

As elections go, given Wales position in the UK, given Plaids raison d'etre, given Labour running the senedd since it's creation, it is a genuinely fascinating election.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Oops.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8xyxje7n29o

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

What on earth are plaid and greens fighting over anti reform votes for in Wales ?

If they havnt had a few chats behind closed doors I think they will be in need of a good slap if reform steal in through the back door

Stick to England Polanski

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Latest poll:

The most likely outcome is a Plaid / Labour coalition, with Labour as the junior partner, a reversal of what we had from 2007-2011

https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54394-first-yougov-mrp-of-the-2026-senedd-election-shows-plaid-cymru-on-course-to-be-the-largest-party

[Dorcus]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Latest poll:

The most likely outcome is a Plaid / Labour coalition, with Labour as the junior partner, a reversal of what we had from 2007-2011

https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54...-largest-party

Sounds good news at last!

[jon1959]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Latest poll:

The most likely outcome is a Plaid / Labour coalition, with Labour as the junior partner, a reversal of what we had from 2007-2011

https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54...-largest-party

Why a Plaid-Labour coalition - if the projection is right?

Why not a Plaid-Green coalition?

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Sounds good news at last!

More of the same! 😍😍😍😍.

I don't mind the current Plaid leader tbh and they are a pretty moderate party but I am opposed to Independence. Id rather a clean break (for at least a term) from Labour, which I think will do Welsh democracy a lot of good, but it's not the worst scenario.

There will probably be one Lib Dem who is power broker 😂

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Why a Plaid-Labour coalition - if the projection is right?

Why not a Plaid-Green coalition?

Couple of reasons;

Firstly according to this poll (which obvs won't be correct, but is the best we have) a Labour coalition would give them two more seats, so just that little bit stronger in purely numbers terms.

Secondly, I think a big risk Plaid would face is of a slight lack of experience and Labour would help them appear more stable and maintain good links with Westminster. The Greens, whatever we think of them, are riskier, more radical, less experienced and would lose that link with Westminster which i think most recognise is beneficial when you have the same party in government at both ends of the M4. Of course, "a change" is what I think people want, but you get that with a Plaid led coalition either way

Whatever happens I think we are in new territory.