Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

You could argue that both ways. They were cut to protect workers, they are still rammed because the government have said non essential workers can still work if they can't work from home.

Cut because Khan knew most tube drivers would miraculously self-isolate. Kinda like striking when big football games are on.

Your point still doesn't make sense, social distancing even if non essential workers were banned from tube travel would be far more effective with more carriages due to far more space.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Cut because Khan knew most tube drivers would miraculously self-isolate. Kinda like striking when big football games are on.

Your point still doesn't make sense, social distancing even if non essential workers were banned from tube travel would be far more effective with more carriages due to far more space.

I'm not defending anyone. I'm saying there is a reason for both sides. They cut services so they could run on limited staff. Construction work still going on means trains are going to be packed.

Either you keep trains running and have more tube staff or you limit the service and only have essential workers go to work.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Concerning that Wales now has more COVID 19 deaths than Scotland when you think of their relative populations - perhaps this, taken from the Guardian today, partially explains it?

"The proximity of south-east Wales to the English border is believed to be one of the reasons behind a cluster of Covid-19 cases there, the Welsh chief medical officer has said.

Frank Atherton added that there may be more cases in the area because more testing has been done there. He said: “As the epidemic unfolds, there will be areas that will flare up and calm down.”

Atherton was responding to a warning by Dr Sarah Aitken, the director of public health at the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board.

In Gwent, we are seeing a rapidly rising increase in the number of cases of coronavirus in all our communities and a daily increase in the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number of people dying from the virus.

The pattern we are seeing in Gwent is the same pattern as was seen in Italy, where their healthcare system is now overwhelmed.

There have been 309 cases in the board’s area compared with 628 for the whole of Wales.

Asked about Aitken’s warning at a Welsh government press conference on Thursday morning, Atherton said: “It is closer to England. The hot spot in the UK is around London and so being on the border with England is an issue. The second reason is there has been a lot more testing in that health board. The fact that we have been doing more testing has led to an increase in the number of cases identified.

The virus is circulating in all parts of Wales. At the moment it may be circulating to a higher degree in south Wales but that may change over time.”

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

Maybe, maybe not.

Gwent seems to be an outlier for whatever reason.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: Coronavirus update

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

[dml1954]

Re: Coronavirus update

Considering the government decided to discard it's science and follow something much closer to the WHO's advice I think in this instance it's a fair shout they were right.

But you have been criticising the Government for not following WHO advice. Now you say they are. Also the chief medical officer has made it quite clear that the Government is following his departments advice. The fact that our situation is considerably better than in Italy, Spain and a number of other countries, indicates to me that by and large they are getting it right. There is no precedent or template for what is happening.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

Yeah as said earlier they’ve changed some huge buildings into make shift hospitals, my mate is in the army reserves and has been called in for next week to help with the hospitals.

Hope it is under 20k deaths, that still seems quite a lot.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

But you have been criticising the Government for not following WHO advice. Now you say they are. Also the chief medical officer has made it quite clear that the Government is following his departments advice. The fact that our situation is considerably better than in Italy, Spain and a number of other countries, indicates to me that by and large they are getting it right. There is no precedent or template for what is happening.

What makes you think our situation is better?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yeah as said earlier they’ve changed some huge buildings into make shift hospitals, my mate is in the army reserves and has been called in for next week to help with the hospitals.

Hope it is under 20k deaths, that still seems quite a lot.

5,700 quoted here. Furthermore, Dr Anthony Fauci is speculating the death rate could be 0.1% - the same as pandemic flu.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here is the latest research on deaths from #coronavirus both in the UK and elsewhere. This is by statisticians including @TomPike00075908 of @imperialcollege who I have spoken to. The key figures are circled. UK deaths estimated to TOTAL 5,700. Peak day will be April 5th with 260 pic.twitter.com/4OwzLLSOkM

— Jeremy Vine (@theJeremyVine) March 26, 2020

[Baloo]

Re: Coronavirus update

5,700 quoted here. Furthermore, Dr Anthony Fauci is speculating the death rate could be 0.1% - the same as pandemic flu.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here is the latest research on deaths from #coronavirus both in the UK and elsewhere. This is by statisticians including @TomPike00075908 of @imperialcollege who I have spoken to. The key figures are circled. UK deaths estimated to TOTAL 5,700. Peak day will be April 5th with 260 pic.twitter.com/4OwzLLSOkM

— Jeremy Vine (@theJeremyVine) March 26, 2020

Pretty sloppy tbh to publish that data with a couple of typos in it. Germany typo acknowledged. Either the Netherlands peak data is also a typo or is already shown to be way out. Underlying modelling might be sound but hard for people to feel confident in these models with basic errors.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Pretty sloppy tbh to publish that data with a couple of typos in it. Germany typo acknowledged. Either the Netherlands peak data is also a typo or is already shown to be way out. Underlying modelling might be sound but hard for people to feel confident in these models with basic errors.

I've not seen the acknowledgement of the German error (presumably it was 9 April, not 9 March?), but it's hard to work out what they mean with that Netherlands figure. Nevertheless, despite the high numbers involved, those figures are quite a bit better than I was expecting them to be and you'd like to think these are people who don't tend to get such things spectacularly wrong.

[Baloo]

Re: Coronavirus update

I've not seen the acknowledgement of the German error (presumably it was 9 April, not 9 March?), but it's hard to work out what they mean with that Netherlands figure. Nevertheless, despite the high numbers involved, those figures are quite a bit better than I was expecting them to be and you'd like to think these are people who don't tend to get such things spectacularly wrong.

The Germany error is acknowledged further down in the tweet. Perhaps the Netherlands data is also a typo on the date. Yes, I’d of course defer to their knowledge it’s just unfortunate it wasn’t more carefully presented.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

If thenumbers for Spain & Italy are correct and our number is correct that must mean the social distancing is having a good effect.

Also have to be careful that it's produced by a statistician not an expert on the virus, but if the trends are correct it is really good news.

[elytillidie]

Re: Coronavirus update

The excel centre in London being turned into a hospital is pretty worrying.

Enough room for 4k beds, and 2 morgues. They must be expecting the shit to hit the fan soon.

Scary stuff. Hope they never fill it.

[Shute]

Re: Coronavirus update

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

Check the guys twitter page. He states that his recommendation has been misinterpreted and is still on coarse for up to 500k. Britain isn't doing a hard lockdown.