Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.

Eighty five per cent double jabbed would surely be us reaching herd immunity wouldn’t it when you consider that they were talking about sixty per cent possibly being enough back in March last year? If that turns out to be the case, I’m going to have to apologise to dml1954!

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.

But the people who do need to go to hospital aren't as sick, don't need such intense treatment and are discharged sooner apparently, which means the NHS is not being overwhelmed. And of course far fewer need intensive care and intrusive ventilation.
Let's hope it stays that way.

[blue matt]

Re: Coronavirus update

Over 50,000 new cases in the U.K. today - Johnson said his Government's decision making would be dictated by data, not dates - pull the other one!

to be fair to boris ( and i know that wont happen here ) When he did his announcement with Prof Doom and Gloom, it was said that " modelling " showed that by the time " freedom day " came ( in 2 weeks time ) the UK might be getting 50 K new cases per day days

They were right

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

to be fair to boris ( and i know that wont happen here ) When he did his announcement with Prof Doom and Gloom, it was said that " modelling " showed that by the time " freedom day " came ( in 2 weeks time ) the UK might be getting 50 K new cases per day days

They were right

What I don’t get is why they felt the need to delay for a few weeks in June and now insist on going ahead when the figures are so much worse - when I looked last, the vaccine figures had flattened out somewhat in the interim period as well.

The rights and wrongs of opening up now can be debated, but Johnson is clearly not being guided by “data, not dates” as his whole approach has been dictated by them.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Not having the vaccine is the biggest mistake of my life’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-57866661

Others have just had their first dose and so are not fully protected. Worryingly, about half of the patients on the ward today haven't been vaccinated. I have stopped asking them why, as they are clearly embarrassed."

I guess we can’t all stop our lives because some stupid selfish people didn’t get vaccinated and have ended up in hospital?

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

Greater Manchester hospitals stand up extra critical care beds and seek mutual aid as Covid admissions, primary care pressures and record A&E attendances ramp up further: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...extra-21050865

Hospitals (London and Manchester) cancel operations and appeal for staff to volunteer for Covid redeployment, as summer crisis bears down on NHS: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1883826.html

The current covid wave has been described to me as a "nightmare" by NHS sources in the North East (of England). Emergency departments "heaving," many staff off due to covid illness/ isolation, younger people in ICUs - some vaccinated, some not: https://twitter.com/mattdiscombe/sta...57101472428035

NHS summer crisis: Major hospital (Birmingham) cancels all planned operations today and tomorrow: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1884914.html

The summer is meant to be the quiet period for the NHS so I would presume it doesn't take much for far greater pressure than normal being felt.

The SAGE minutes I posted earlier said they knew about the surge, they wanted it now instead of autumn and winter and there needs to be strong, clear communication about what people can do to protect themselves and others (and what businesses can do to protect their staff/consumers) to lessen the impact otherwise we could end up with another extreme peak. The question needed being whether different government's and different ministers are all communicating that well enough?

Another thread mentioned Tory pledge for extra 50,000 nurses a day (originally this meant somehow dissuading 19,000 expected to leave from leaving) after years of underinvesting in the service so will be interesting to see if more than 19,000 leave due to exhaustion, whether higher number than expected stay-on because this has reaffirmed how valuable the NHS is or whether more than 31,000 are attracted to the position because they've been inspired.

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

If I could I would edit my second paragraph above that to become:

"The SAGE minutes I posted earlier said they knew about the surge, they wanted it now instead of autumn and winter and there needs to be strong, clear communication about risk prevention to lessen the impact otherwise we could end up with another extreme peak.

The question needed being whether different government's and different ministers are all communicating that well enough?"

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

The summer is meant to be the quiet period for the NHS so I would presume it doesn't take much for far greater pressure than normal being felt.

The SAGE minutes I posted earlier said they knew about the surge, they wanted it now instead of autumn and winter and there needs to be strong, clear communication about what people can do to protect themselves and others (and what businesses can do to protect their staff/consumers) to lessen the impact otherwise we could end up with another extreme peak. The question needed being whether different government's and different ministers are all communicating that well enough?

Another thread mentioned Tory pledge for extra 50,000 nurses a day (originally this meant somehow dissuading 19,000 expected to leave from leaving) after years of underinvesting in the service so will be interesting to see if more than 19,000 leave due to exhaustion, whether higher number than expected stay-on because this has reaffirmed how valuable the NHS is or whether more than 31,000 are attracted to the position because they've been inspired.

The point is that they were aware of the potential pressures that we are witnessing but it is much better to have it now in the summer that try to supress it and get it in the winter when hospitals are harder worked anyway.
And I read somewhere yesterday that the numbers appear to be peeking already. I hope so.

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

The point is that they were aware of the potential pressures that we are witnessing but it is much better to have it now in the summer that try to supress it and get it in the winter when hospitals are harder worked anyway.
And I read somewhere yesterday that the numbers appear to be peeking already. I hope so.

Can you tell me whether there awareness of greater pressure was talking about after July 19th or before? It seems to me that we're getting the much greater pressure on hospitals early with outcomes from this unknown.

Regardless, the important thing is how much the situation remains on a knife-edge and if there is a slow release of "pandemic habits" then expectation is that we can manage well and if there is a quick release it's likely to get very worrying again. It's all about how well that message is communicated and how much it's followed.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Over 50,000 new cases in the U.K. today - Johnson said his Government's decision making would be dictated by data, not dates - pull the other one!

Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.

Just running out of teenagers, people under 30 and the unvaccinated left to infect……

[az city]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.

Absolute case numbers are best examined using a moving average because of reporting delays/snags. To assess emerging trends most localities look at the 7-day moving average.

I'd say we are around 6 weeks/a month behind the UK here but our epi models indicate a third wave.

[az city]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just running out of teenagers, people under 30 and the unvaccinated left to infect……

Just an FYI, the best study of the UK populace I have seen indicates the AZ vaccine is about 60% effective against the (dominant) delta variant so there are a lot of vaccinated people at risk too, cf Mr Javid.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: Coronavirus update

The point is that they were aware of the potential pressures that we are witnessing but it is much better to have it now in the summer that try to supress it and get it in the winter when hospitals are harder worked anyway.
And I read somewhere yesterday that the numbers appear to be peeking already. I hope so.