Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Optimistic Nick]

Re: Coronavirus update

This is all completely crazy isn't it? I have been told not to come in to work tomorrow, and I imagine it will be months not weeks before we go back.

Meantime, collective idiocy and greed causes people to over-buy everything putting strain on supermarkets, while almost all of the rest of retail, restaurants, pubs and entertainment has in a matter of weeks taken a very sharp lurch towards insolvency. Airlines won't survive, nor will a lot of tour operators. Stock markets are falling in a manner rarely seen before.

And - statistically speaking - nothing has even happened yet. 1 in 44,000 people in the UK is known to have it. It is obviously awful that some people have died and more are ill, and I am not downplaying the extent of the threat to human life- clearly exponential growth will sythe that fraction down to the point where most of us have it in a matter of weeks. This isn't a criticism of any government, or global response. If anything it says a lot about the connectedness of the world now, not just that something like the virus can spread so fast and so absolutely, but also that the knowledge and fear of it can do the same and cause entire continents to effectively close for business, and with no end in sight. This whole thing is absolutely surreal.

[welshyoot]

Re: Coronavirus update

This is all completely crazy isn't it? I have been told not to come in to work tomorrow, and I imagine it will be months not weeks before we go back.

My work involves research into healthcare organisations - we've been told today that it's clear that there will be major restrictions until the end of 2020 and possibly until March/April 2021...

My dad’s funeral tomorrow. We have had to cancel the wake in the local pub. I never thought it would come to this. This has been a dreadful year and it’s still only March.

Really sorry to hear this. I hope it goes as well as it can tomorrow.

[Bluebirdman Of Alcathays]

Re: Coronavirus update

This isn't a criticism of any government, or global response. If anything it says a lot about the connectedness of the world now, not just that something like the virus can spread so fast and so absolutely, but also that the knowledge and fear of it can do the same and cause entire continents to effectively close for business, and with no end in sight. This whole thing is absolutely surreal.

Was listening to an expert called Michael Osterholm who reckoned we could've been better prepared after SARS and MERS, but once it was over everyone moved on and didn't think of the next time. He didn't go into detail about what that would entail but given his background I assume he'd have some procedures up his sleeve for a faster response. This already seems like the big boot up the arse we sadly often need.

[Optimistic Nick]

Re: Coronavirus update

My work involves research into healthcare organisations - we've been told today that it's clear that there will be major restrictions until the end of 2020 and possibly until March/April 2021...

Thanks for the insight. However, depending on the level of restriction - it seems unlikely that it could be enforceable for that long doesn't it? People won't be that selfless for that long. Everyone knows that panic buying is going to worsen things, but the supermarkets are full of selfish dickheads buying sacks of pasta, and this is while everything is still functioning as normal. I like to think I am a good guy, but 12 months effectively imprisoned in my own home? I'm not sure I could take that. But then the entire plan is to lengthen it so that it's manageable, so I am sure you are right.

The world needs a pause button if we are all electing to stop economic activity for 12 months though. This would be impossible to implement for about a gazillion reasons, but we would need to freeze interest on all debt; freeze rent and mortgage payments. Keep vital public services going, and allow private sector to choose between fighting on, or shutting up shop for a year with guaranteed return to work rights for employees and contractors, who in the meantime work for the public sector on fixed pay doing whatever it is that needs doing so we can all go back to normal (or perhaps a slightly more cooperative social version of normal). It would be more complex than Brexit and feel a lot like war. But the alternative would be what? How many businesses or people can survive a year of nothing?

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Well, about 10k Jocks coming down and boozing all weekend wouldn’t have helped.

Good point....and 30,000 Welsh in London for the rugby as well. Notice that the highest incidence in Wales is in Swansea....a strong area for rugby supporters...coincidence or what?

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

Good point....and 30,000 Welsh in London for the rugby as well. Notice that the highest incidence in Wales is in Swansea....a strong area for rugby supporters...coincidence or what?

Probably, yes

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Coronavirus update

Thanks for the insight. However, depending on the level of restriction - it seems unlikely that it could be enforceable for that long doesn't it? People won't be that selfless for that long. Everyone knows that panic buying is going to worsen things, but the supermarkets are full of selfish dickheads buying sacks of pasta, and this is while everything is still functioning as normal. I like to think I am a good guy, but 12 months effectively imprisoned in my own home? I'm not sure I could take that. But then the entire plan is to lengthen it so that it's manageable, so I am sure you are right.

The world needs a pause button if we are all electing to stop economic activity for 12 months though. This would be impossible to implement for about a gazillion reasons, but we would need to freeze interest on all debt; freeze rent and mortgage payments. Keep vital public services going, and allow private sector to choose between fighting on, or shutting up shop for a year with guaranteed return to work rights for employees and contractors, who in the meantime work for the public sector on fixed pay doing whatever it is that needs doing so we can all go back to normal (or perhaps a slightly more cooperative social version of normal). It would be more complex than Brexit and feel a lot like war. But the alternative would be what? How many businesses or people can survive a year of nothing?

Everything - and I mean literally everything to with a Nation's fiscal balance sheet which includes taxation, employment, all business whatever size - is critically dependent on it's citizens spending money on goods and services. I'm not an economist but I can well believe a month's inactivity will render 50% of UK business in dire straights, and 50% closed down. Extrapolate that to '14 weeks', and there will be very little left of our - or any- western economy. In addidtion the Govt. will need to put close to a £trillion into the economy, social care/services/relief payments etc., whilst losing a massive chunk of it's income from taxation and corporation taxes etc. Coupled with the fact that businesses trying to borrow to stay afloat won't get anything from the Banks, and larger, stock quoted businesses will be so worthless based on share price that they will also find it difficult. And let's not get started on the Banks themsleves.

Last night I looked at Boris as he delivered his update. He didn't looked worried - he looked scared..

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Coronavirus update

totally agree in terms of time we need to cut corners but I,m sure Bojo and his advisers are working on that right now cutting through the red tape of regulations in these serious times . We were looking at medical device products today at lunchtime and looking at the products we think the automotive companys would be best to use for assembly . they have some very clever Manufacturing Engineers both in manual and automated processes . I notice the Vauxhall factories are shutting temporary today for a month or two . won't be a problem finding the people with the right skills that's for sure

"in the national interest". believe it or not the Govt. can do pretty much what it wants to do with this phrase - even just walk in and commandeer a business for its own use

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

Apparently the government advisors realized that the course of action the government had been taking would lead to 250000 deaths in the UK. And intensive care units being 8x over capacity for the next 12 months.

Could someone go and tell them to stop worrying because organ Morgan said it's all ok and less dangerous than the normal flu.

[MacAdder]

Re: Coronavirus update

Well, about 10k Jocks coming down and boozing all weekend wouldn’t have helped.

Neither would the couple of thousand Stereophonics revellers!

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Coronavirus update

Apparently the government advisors realized that the course of action the government had been taking would lead to 250000 deaths in the UK. And intensive care units being 8x over capacity for the next 12 months.

Could someone go and tell them to stop worrying because organ Morgan said it's all ok and less dangerous than the normal flu.

How did you know that ? The Govt. advisors haven't been privately in touch with me ..

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

How did you know that ? The Govt. advisors haven't been privately in touch with me ..

It has been widely reported.

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

How did you know that ? The Govt. advisors haven't been privately in touch with me ..

Are you still refusing to accept that this virus has killed people?

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf