Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

I expected a very big spike in death toll today after the long weekend, as there is normally one after every weekend, but sad though each death is it doesn't look as bad as it could be. Perhaps we are getting over the top of the curve?

Perhaps I missed it, but I've not seen any acknowledgement of the bulk of the 400 plus additional deaths outside of hospitals announced by the ONS earlier in the week. In saying that, I believe the daily figures from Scotland and Wales have been adjusted to include them (I'm pretty sure both countries recorded their biggest number of daily deaths on Wednesday), but not England and Northern Ireland which probably means that at least three quarters of those deaths are missing from the total shown here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

As can be seen though, with the exception of one day (which included a one off adjustment) the new cases figures for this month have remained fairly steady even though the number of people being tested has been rising.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Coronavirus update

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

I think the UK is a while off opening up, but more testing and tracing is the way to do it.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?

More like get everything ready to do this in a week or two when new infections should be getting lower due to the lockdown.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/nhs-staff-to-be-asked-to-treat-coronavirus-patients-without-gowns

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-without-gowns

Shambles isn't it?

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Shambles isn't it?

Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.

I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.

[ToTaL ITK]

Re: Coronavirus update

I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.

This is a first test for every government in the world and it's interesting see how they react.
It's hard to know who would have done what, but there have been some right f#ck ups

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.

But the WHO cautioned against investing too much in these tests.

Speaking in Geneva, the WHO's Dr Maria van Kerkhove said there was "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity.

She said initial evidence did not suggest large numbers of people were developing antibodies after having the virus, meaning the chances of creating "herd immunity" were not high.

This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html

This is an interesting article I think.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.



This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.

We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.

They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?

[jon1959]

Re: Coronavirus update

They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?

Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.