Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I meant mortality rates - my error. If you find one expert you can find another with a different view. The Govt. opted for Ferguson. That's why we have 1000's of empty beds in specially built facilities lying almost empty. Also practically every other type of operation has been cancelled - even critical heart and cancer ones. Specialist wards are almost empty with spare staff. Experts said ventilators were crucial, two weeks ago there was a mad panic. Now it seems they're actually responsible for more deaths.

I know sod all about any of this except I don't swallow every bit of c**p I'm told. Probably an age thing. People of my generation are much more sceptical than the internet -savvy folk of today..

There's more to being skeptical than just being anti-Government or anti-"expert".

The need for extra hospital beds was based on a model that has revised the peak downwards at relevant stages. For example, the readiness of the UK population to adhere to social distancing. The original models factored in that only around 50% of the population would follow the social distancing guidelines. The fact is, that a significant number of people are adhering to the guidelines (more than 50%), which has had a positive impact on the infection rate.

If the models proved correct, and we were out of beds, I'm wondering if that would also be the fault of Professor Ferguson (and his team)?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I was being a bit sarcastic, but that was in response to posts from CCFCC3PO that vaccines have never been developed in less than 5 years and his refusal to engage with the very many expert claims over recent months that a COVID9 vaccine may be available in 12-18 months based on current levels of research and collaboration. For what it's worth (contrary to his claim) I never said a Zika vaccine was produced in 7 months - I said I had found an online article that said the researchers were ready for clinical testing after 7 months (indicating rapid progress) but that the testing was never carried out because the virus fizzled out.

This is mainly about how confident we can be about vaccine development - and what that means for lock down, the importance of testing and tracing, and the shape and speed of any exit strategy - not about our variable levels of ignorance. My level of ignorance is very high, but I have enough confidence in people who do know stuff to think that CCFCC3POs insistence on 5 years minimum is overly pessimistic.

I have no problems with the sarcasm, and I am sure you have no problems either.

With regards to the Zika vaccine - getting a vaccine to clinical trial in 7 months does not equate to having a fully working vaccine, nor does it equate to having enough of the vaccine to immunise the population that needs it (i.e. the people living in countries where the virus is prevalent). They are still working on a vaccine for the Zika virus by the way.

Nobody has achieved a vaccine on such a scale in 12-18 months, and that is why I am incredibly cautious about pinning hopes on getting a working vaccine out and to 60% of the population of the world (since it is affecting practically every country in the world) in that time. 60% is the figure I see quoted for herd immunity.

I have not insisted that a vaccine will take a minimum of 5 years. I am suggesting that people treat the headlines with caution. It could well be that we have a virus in 12 months, it could be that there will be enough to immunize the suspected 60% of the population that requires it (i.e. to achieve herd immunity) in 12-18 months. If it happens, it will be an incredible achievement, the like of which we have not seen before.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm not sure saying it is interesting while pointing out themselves that there has been no peer review yet is sensationalising it is it?

I agree it is interesting, but without peer review I don;t think it is newsworthy at the moment. I would say that 85 times more people having been infected would be a sensational figure. It would also be very welcome because it would suggest that a significant number of people are asymptomatic.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Coronavirus update

There's more to being skeptical than just being anti-Government or anti-"expert".

The need for extra hospital beds was based on a model that has revised the peak downwards at relevant stages. For example, the readiness of the UK population to adhere to social distancing. The original models factored in that only around 50% of the population would follow the social distancing guidelines. The fact is, that a significant number of people are adhering to the guidelines (more than 50%), which has had a positive impact on the infection rate.

If the models proved correct, and we were out of beds, I'm wondering if that would also be the fault of Professor Ferguson (and his team)?

But they weren't correct. Ferguson and his 'team' (excuse brackets) constitute an un-named collection of people advising the Govt. every step of the way. Obviously no Govt. has sufficient expertise in these matters, but whom they choose to listen to can have significant impact on our lives - now, and for years to come. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies [Sage], is the body of anonymous people who are hourly advising the Govt.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

But they weren't correct. Ferguson and his 'team' (excuse brackets) constitute an un-named collection of people advising the Govt. every step of the way. Obviously no Govt. has sufficient expertise in these matters, but whom they choose to listen to can have significant impact on our lives - now, and for years to come. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies [Sage], is the body of anonymous people who are hourly advising the Govt.

What were they incorrect with? Who would have been more correct?

[Baloo]

Re: Coronavirus update

But they weren't correct. Ferguson and his 'team' (excuse brackets) constitute an un-named collection of people advising the Govt. every step of the way. Obviously no Govt. has sufficient expertise in these matters, but whom they choose to listen to can have significant impact on our lives - now, and for years to come. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies [Sage], is the body of anonymous people who are hourly advising the Govt.

Although we've recently had prominent scientists stating that neither the advice nor the science was followed at key stages of the government's response to the pandemic.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

There is a very useful app - I think you will find it in your play stores under the name "Dreamlab" run by Vodafone.

When your phone is left to charge overnight, it uses your phone to help the Imperial College make calculations. This is usually in the fight against cancer. They have recently extended it to Covid-19.

As long as your phone is on charge, and as long as the app is running, your phone will be brought in to assist in the calculations. You will need to select the project you want to assist with, there are a few there.

Search for Dreamlab on Google Play or Apple-store (whatever that one is called). Install it, set it to run and charge the phone overnight.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Coronavirus update

Although we've recently had prominent scientists stating that neither the advice nor the science was followed at key stages of the government's response to the pandemic.

We are all floundering around a bit whilst the scientists and politicians do their bit. What I would say is that in support of his argument AQM has regularly quoted the Deputy Scientific Advisor in his support.

This man is the Deputy Scientific Advisor at the Home Office.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1267376/coronavirus-latest-working-from-home-COVID-19-death-toll-news-boris-johnson

As I posted a week ago before being shot down, people with views contrary to Neil Ferguson's are beginning to gain sufficient confidence to voice their opinions..

Now the Deputy Scientific Advisor to the Home Office, a guy called Rupert Schute was on a recorded Zoom call with Passport Office Management and staff berating them that they need to get back to work because 80% of people would get Covid-19 in the end ( the original herd immunity forecasts before the government changed tack).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-uk-passport-office-accused-of-taking-cavalier-approach-to-staff-safety

Now AQM might have become aware that Rupert's scientific skill set is in robotic engineering. I don't know about you but I get reassured by medicinal doctors on health and engineers on how safe it it is to cross a bridge!

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...34219139665920

Thanks for posting that. Anyone working in the industry would have been able to point these things out weeks ago, the whole approach didn't seem to makes lot of sense to let, especially when the likes of Medtronic were making a ventilator design of theirs open source

[dandywarhol]

Re: Coronavirus update

Breaking news tonight.Johnson missed 5 COBRA meetings.
The first on 24 January and 4 after as the virus took hold.
His first appearance was on March 2

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

This story by the Sunday Times is absolutely damning about Boris Johnson’s reckless attitude towards the coronavirus. https://t.co/3Cyp1mnW8D https://t.co/y5RZqivvk8

Joris Bohnson getting an absolute pasting here in the times of all places

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

This story by the Sunday Times is absolutely damning about Boris Johnson’s reckless attitude towards the coronavirus. https://t.co/3Cyp1mnW8D https://t.co/y5RZqivvk8

Joris Bohnson getting an absolute pasting here in the times of all places

The Times is behind a paywall, here's the article. Johnson and co getting absolutely savaged

http://archive.vn/ofnfS

[Packerman]

Re: Coronavirus update

The Times is behind a paywall, here's the article. Johnson and co getting absolutely savaged

http://archive.vn/ofnfS

thanks for link a really damning inditement of british gov policy and lack of leadership by the Times, should be read by all Boris fans to realise what an egotistical fraud he is

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

thanks for link a really damning inditement of british gov policy and lack of leadership by the Times, should be read by all Boris fans to realise what an egotistical fraud he is

The whole thing is turning into a mess. Cometh the hour, cometh the man and Boris, Raab, Hancock, Drakeford, Gethin have failed.

Track and trace started well then all change. Rugby internationals, Cheltenham festival etc deemed OK because they were outdoor events. Rubbish, we all know the damage is done when we are toe to toe in the bars.

Eventually, after football clubs and similar had taken their own action because they could see the issues, the government takes action. Lockdown arrives as cases escalate.
After earlier messages that the NHS was set up to handle whatever was thrown at it, the realisation that it wasn't. Not enough beds, ventilators, PPE, doctors, nurses. So instead of the NHS saving us we are asked to save the NHS.
The daily briefings fill me with dread as they bumble through the agenda, and not just in England. Gethin and Drakeford tell us daily that we can do 5000 tests a day and we manage 800. Chaos in administration so sites like CC stadium are underused. Drakeford says no PPE issues in Wales. Nurses and care homes tell us otherwise.
Public Health bodies prove to be bureaucratic autocracies, reluctant to engage with the expertise in the private sector. I read recently of a local welsh company diverting its production and making face visors. All ready to go but waiting for them to be approved.
And finally today's papers talk of easing the lockdown in May when we are still not seeing a decline in daily cases in UK, and marginal in Wales. We could be setting ourselves up for a second wave as blustering leadership continues.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: Coronavirus update

The Times is behind a paywall, here's the article. Johnson and co getting absolutely savaged

http://archive.vn/ofnfS

Oh, but Boris is such a character