Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[jon1959]

Re: Coronavirus update

EEFF0974-5D63-4692-A4DD-7E01B81942AD.jpg

Big day tomorrow!

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

I just don’t understand what’s made you think this? The majority of the country loves a pub whatever class they are and they bring in a lot of money.

The only reason they aren’t open is because of the virus.

Seriously what people in positions of power don’t want them open?

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

I just don’t understand what’s made you think this? The majority of the country loves a pub whatever class they are and they bring in a lot of money.

The only reason they aren’t open is because of the virus.

Seriously what people in positions of power don’t want them open?

I agree with you that the majority love a pub but sadly we are not ruled by the majority. The only reason they are closed is because of the virus and its a good excuse for some people to lobby to keep them closed.

Does your sister have a contact number about the tracing thing, for my boy?

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

Your opinion is incorrect you’ll be pleased to hear.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Your opinion is incorrect you’ll be pleased to hear.

We shall see lol

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

No-one has denied that such people exist. What we have questioned is the reasoning behind your assertion that such people have a disproportionate amount of power in Wales.

It is odd that you think a gym is not needed to exercise. In fact, a gym is just as essential in a community context. It is a social setting too.

Do you think that the virus is less likely to be transmitted in a pub setting than it is in a gym (for example)?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I agree with you that the majority love a pub but sadly we are not ruled by the majority. The only reason they are closed is because of the virus and its a good excuse for some people to lobby to keep them closed.

Does your sister have a contact number about the tracing thing, for my boy?

Who is lobbying for pubs to remain closed?

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

We shall see lol

How? If pubs never open again?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

What is the base rate you refer too ???

The base rate would be the rate at which the sub population (i.e. age, gender, ethnicity, social situation, exposure, risk factor). So, you know how likely they are to have it before the test, now we do the test and then compare the figures. It is a critical piece of evidence.

But, clinical knowledge will always trump a test. So, if someone tests negative but the evidence is that they have all the symptoms of covid 19, then the clinical interpretation of those symptoms will trump the results of tests. Which is, I think, what you were saying earlier (about a doctor being more accurate than a test).

But, with regards to saying the test is 30% inaccurate, like I say, there are reasons that I don't readily accept that. I am not rejecting it completely, but there is a critical piece of evidence missing, and that is the base rate. The base rate will never be 0% or 100% and it will differ between sub populations (e.g. Asian women working in care homes have a base rate (known infection rate) of 32%). The issue we have here is that we do not know the actual value of the base rate because of asymptomatic cases. Also, since tests are not being done on everyone, but only on suspected cases, this leads to more false negatives.

In the same way, if they were testing solely the people who do not have the virus, we would get more false positives.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

xsnaggle, can you explain the UK timeline for opening pubs please? Can you explain how that timeline implies that pubs will open in England before they open in Wales?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Infection rate increasing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I'm sure the "go to work, but don't go on public transport, unless you can't get there any other way. You could walk, maybe, but yes at least you can meet your friends but in an outdoor setting, but only when the wind is North Westerly" message will make things better.

[Hilts]

Re: Coronavirus update

Drakeford makes no sense, he said a few weeks ago he was waiting for 5 key points to occur, which they already are, yet instead of easing the lock down he hasn’t. He wants to be like New Zealand now, despite the fact they were in lockdown for less time than us, I didn’t realise Wales was an island 500 miles off the coast of England either.....the blundering fool is going to see thousands on the dole I tell u and then we will get two fingers back from boris......

When has Drakeford mentioned 5 points to occur which now all have.?

Any links?

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

Infection rate increasing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I'm sure the "go to work, but don't go on public transport, unless you can't get there any other way. You could walk, maybe, but yes at least you can meet your friends but in an outdoor setting, but only when the wind is North Westerly" message will make things better.

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago. "

[Hilts]

Re: Coronavirus update

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago. "

Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

The base rate would be the rate at which the sub population (i.e. age, gender, ethnicity, social situation, exposure, risk factor). So, you know how likely they are to have it before the test, now we do the test and then compare the figures. It is a critical piece of evidence.

But, clinical knowledge will always trump a test. So, if someone tests negative but the evidence is that they have all the symptoms of covid 19, then the clinical interpretation of those symptoms will trump the results of tests. Which is, I think, what you were saying earlier (about a doctor being more accurate than a test).

But, with regards to saying the test is 30% inaccurate, like I say, there are reasons that I don't readily accept that. I am not rejecting it completely, but there is a critical piece of evidence missing, and that is the base rate. The base rate will never be 0% or 100% and it will differ between sub populations (e.g. Asian women working in care homes have a base rate (known infection rate) of 32%). The issue we have here is that we do not know the actual value of the base rate because of asymptomatic cases. Also, since tests are not being done on everyone, but only on suspected cases, this leads to more false negatives.

In the same way, if they were testing solely the people who do not have the virus, we would get more false positives.

But weren't their samples weighted ?, why do they think their samples weren't weighted ?

The UK relied heavily on medical modellers and not enough on virologists was a common criticism of our lot, our lot seem to have got it wrong at every turn but the one area they should have some idea on was modelling, are you saying the UK modellers had no idea how to mathematically do their calculations ?

Yes they can make the wrong assumptions, yes they might not fully understand the characteristics of this new virus and if you put the wrong information into a computer you get wrong information out, no doubt that happened, but are you saying they don't know how to go about working it out statistically and mathematically (if they had put the correct info in) ?