Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

Well they were a week away from being overrun in his estimation, good as that may be, and that must have been based on some known information, but they never actually reached that point. If they had we would have heard about it a lot earlier than now.

Yeah but when the experienced critical care consultant said that they were a week away from being overrun he didn't say that was a positive, it was a marker of how serious things were.

You've stated that the fact they were a week away meant that it was not ever really too close so I'm wondering what medical experience you have to be able to make that statement basically overruling him?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yeah but when the experienced critical care consultant said that they were a week away from being overrun he didn't say that was a positive, it was a marker of how serious things were.

You've stated that the fact they were a week away meant that it was not ever really too close so I'm wondering what medical experience you have to be able to make that statement basically overruling him?

I'm not trying to overrule him. I'm pointing out that he is saying it was so in April and the BBC is then saying it is now!!!

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm not trying to overrule him. I'm pointing out that he is saying it was so in April and the BBC is then saying it is now!!!

I'm not talking about that though, I'm talking about this bit:

A consultant at UHW contacts the press and tells them that at the peak of the pandemic (in April) the IC unit was within 1 week of being overrun. (Which means it was not ever really too close).

I'm just fascinated to know what xsnaggle off the football messageboard is basing his confident assertion on that a week from being overrun is not ever really too close for an ICU unit, when a critical care consultant finds it so close that he talks to the press about it?

What do you know that he doesn't, and how? Being that he's a critical care consultant at Wales's biggest hospital and all.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm not talking about that though, I'm talking about this bit:



I'm just fascinated to know what xsnaggle off the football messageboard is basing his confident assertion on that a week from being overrun is not ever really too close for an ICU unit, when a critical care consultant finds it so close that he talks to the press about it?

What do you know that he doesn't, and how? Being that he's a critical care consultant at Wales's biggest hospital and all.

Are you deliberately missing the point?

The point was that the consultant said it was close to being overrun at the peak of the pandemic in April and the BBC then changed that to say that it is within a week of being overrun NOW!! If you look again my first sentence was about journalists twisting things, Not about the consultant being wrong.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

In the environment I have lived in and worked in a week is not so close and if it had reached that point there were alternatives available.
As I said, if it had been too close we would have heard about it at the time, or I believe we would! Someone or the other would have been only too anxious to tell us.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Are you deliberately missing the point?

The point was that the consultant said it was close to being overrun at the peak of the pandemic in April and the BBC then changed that to say that it is within a week of being overrun NOW!! If you look again my first sentence was about journalists twisting things, Not about the consultant being wrong.

I have lost count of the number of times my dad has been in ICU. If I had to hazard a guess, it would be 4 or 5 times. Each time, he was there for longer than a week. It was the one place where patients weren't turned around quickly.

There was also a recent story of a man emerging from ICU after 8 weeks. I think that the typical length of stay on ICU exceeds one week.

Which means that we are not missing the point. You seem to be turning the reporting into an anti-BBC thing, delmbox is pointing out that being 1 week from being over run is not a positive. In fact, it shows how close we came to getting overrun - had the stay home message been delivered a day or two later, UHW would have been in trouble.

As it is, it survived (this time), and sick people didn't need to be sent to the Principality Stadium (some people see the use of the stadium as a failure considering hardly any patients went there).

But, for some odd reason, you think that we weren't in danger of being overrun. When you are asked to clarify this, you accuse people of missing "the point" which is "to kick the BBC".

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

In the environment I have lived in and worked in a week is not so close and if it had reached that point there were alternatives available.
As I said, if it had been too close we would have heard about it at the time, or I believe we would! Someone or the other would have been only too anxious to tell us.

What environment have you worked in that leads to your qualified statement? Oh, let me guess, you're not going to talk about it.

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

In the environment I have lived in and worked in a week is not so close and if it had reached that point there were alternatives available.

What environment is that you're talking about? Clearly you work in the medical field, so what specifically?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

That 'theconversation' article is not good enough for you when it's based on the topic, oh well that is your problem.

What about the WSJ article then ?, that was full of mathematical equations.

Just because it is "based on the topic" it does not make it factual. I have read the article 4/5 times now (each time you mention it I go back to see if I missed anything). It doesn't cite anything other than based on "evidence in China", evidence it doesn't provide.

I couldn't find the WSJ article. But, again, you think it is true "because it was full of mathematical equations". Send us the link so that I can read it.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

What environment is that you're talking about? Clearly you work in the medical field, so what specifically?

I don't work in the medical field but I have worked in environments where things could escalate very quickly.
The main point of my post was the BBC reporting.
As for the ICU being a week away from being overrun my point was fairly simple. If at the time in question it had been close to being overrun we would have known about it at the time, almost without doubt. It is the nature of this thing and the reporting of it that such immediate and bad news would have been out in the public domain almost as soon as someone could get it there. It's human nature. The fact that it wasn't indicates to me that it never got to that critical point. That is what I believe.
The man made the statement over a month after the event as one comment in an interview and the BBC picked up on it. It really was that simple. Please don't blow up my remarks into something big deal because they aren't. Disagree with my perception of it by all means but battering on at me will not alter my thoughts on the matter. But hey, if it makes you feel better or righteous please carry on. fill ya boots.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Much of the public appear to be following the rules that best suit them - i.e. Johnson's.

Today I have seen a house with 8 people in the front yard. The house is lived in by an elderly couple, so they have 6 people visiting.

The Barry Island live webcam sees a dozen people outside O'Shea's fish and chip shop on the promenade. The fish shop has changed its message from "stay home" to "Welcome to O'Sheas". Barry Island has been dead of late, it is definitely busier than this time last week (with similar weather).

The Stay at Home message that the Welsh Government are churning out is rendered invalid when trips to garden centres are allowable. It's also been rendered invalid by Johnson's completely incomprehensible message, a message that required a 50 page document to clear up!

This wave isn't even finished, hopefully we will avoid a second wave but today it looks like an increasing number of people are becoming more blase about social distancing.

I went on my fortnightly food shopping trip to Aberdare yesterday afternoon and I'd say the picture was more mixed. The road over the mountain from Treherbert was the busiest I'd seen it in the two plus years I've lived up here, but this was partially explained by the fact that a hearse was driving very slowly and causing a tail back of over twenty vehicles, but, even so, I'd still say it was busy even by pre lockdown standards.

However, the number of people parked along the road to walk their dogs, enjoy the view etc. was less than I'd seen before during lockdown and I only had to queue for 15 minutes at Tescos compared to forty five last time I went - the journey back over the mountain was quiet as well.

On the other hand, there were much more people wandering around in Treherbert than I'd seen before and I think it's probably fair to say that there are some very liberal interpretations as to what constitutes "exercise" being employed!

Regarding the R value, I see that the German figure has fallen back again following the initial rise when the lockdown was eased, so it's probably best not to get overly concerned by one day's worth of results, but, at the very least, it is unfortunate politically that the first new R value reported in England (I assume it was England not the UK?) after Johnson waved his arms about to the nation last Sunday showed an increase.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-05-15/germanys-infection-rate-shows-coronavirus-on-the-decline

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just because it is "based on the topic" it does not make it factual. I have read the article 4/5 times now (each time you mention it I go back to see if I missed anything). It doesn't cite anything other than based on "evidence in China", evidence it doesn't provide.

I couldn't find the WSJ article. But, again, you think it is true "because it was full of mathematical equations". Send us the link so that I can read it.

Read it 4 or 5 times lol and you can't find the WSJ article, lol
I'm now reading an award winning scientific magazine with articles from top medical journalists and the article I'm currently reading is all about the different Coronavirus tests and the failure rates and you don't believe the false negatives of 30% in some cases, lol.

You can do your own research or just remain ignorant to the facts.

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

Poor performance around testing, kits used and understanding the science around tests by the USA so far, top stuff by the Germans and South Koreans in comparison at this stage.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Read it 4 or 5 times lol and you can't find the WSJ article, lol
I'm now reading an award winning scientific magazine with articles from top medical journalists and the article I'm currently reading is all about the different Coronavirus tests and the failure rates and you don't believe the false negatives of 30% in some cases, lol.

You can do your own research or just remain ignorant to the facts.

OK, help us out then. Post up links to the articles you are reading.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I don't work in the medical field but I have worked in environments where things could escalate very quickly.

Ah, that makes you an expert. We can't really argue on your thoughts on the matter, it's abundantly clear you're not actually doing a great deal of thinking.