Another Brexit Bonus

[life on mars]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Are you posting this as a positive?

Yes as the predictions were a mass exodus 150 k work there , if the predictions came true it would have devastated the economy as it contributes 10% of the UK's total economic its also the largest tax payer, the biggest exporting industry and generates a trade surplus greater than all other net exporting industries combined.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Yes as the predictions were a mass exodus 150 k work there , if the predictions came true it would have devastated the economy as it contributes 10% of the UK's total economic its also the largest tax payer, the biggest exporting industry and generates a trade surplus greater than all other net exporting industries combined.

Sometimes I wonder if you are you a badly written bot.

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Nearly every 'prediction' of doom regarding Brexit has proven to be totally untrue. I can't think of a single one that hasn't? Maybe something around some fishing problems? Perhaps it's true when you re-read it that the predictions referred only to teething problems hidden behind apocalyptic headlines?

It was always going to be so, for three key reasons.

1 / the public generally don't vote against their own economic interests.

2 / the predictions were always nakedly political and impossible to obtain a genuine non partisan prediction for

3 / even if the predictions were true (and they werent) when circumstances or variables change then the results change. So for example if importing something from abroad did become trickier (and in some cases it has) then the purchaser is now probably buying the same product from within the UK. There's no net economic cost, just a change

[Swiss Peter]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Nearly every 'prediction' of doom regarding Brexit has proven to be totally untrue. I can't think of a single one that hasn't? Maybe something around some fishing problems? Perhaps it's true when you re-read it that the predictions referred only to teething problems hidden behind apocalyptic headlines?

It was always going to be so, for three key reasons.

1 / the public generally don't vote against their own economic interests.

2 / the predictions were always nakedly political and impossible to obtain a genuine non partisan prediction for

3 / even if the predictions were true (and they werent) when circumstances or variables change then the results change. So for example if importing something from abroad did become trickier (and in some cases it has) then the purchaser is now probably buying the same product from within the UK. There's no net economic cost, just a change

I thought even you, with your deeply entrenched position, had accepted that it is still too early to be able to judge this one way or the other. In the meantime, as has already been highlighted in this thread, the Office of Budget Responsibility has predicted:

"The new trading relationship will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU"

"Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU"

"New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact".

Those are precisely the 'predictions of doom' that people were making. However, maybe the OBR is wrong and you are right. We don't know yet, do we?. I have also heard some say that a 4% hit on GDP is worth it to have 'taken back control'. I don't personally see it that way. A 4% hit on GDP means real people losing real jobs.

Also, you should look beyond your focus on the economy. Those of us against leaving predicted that there could be some real issues in terms of implementing Brexit in practice in Ireland, and in terms of our wider relationships/status with our neighbours and beyond. If you think that things are turning out well in that respect then I would disagree with you.

Hope this helps

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

You've just written some predictions there. Not facts. The facts show that almost five years after the vote the UK is generally performing on a par with the EU and a year after leaving we are generally outperforming our peers - needless to say the pandemic makes a proper analysis impossible but you can only go on the facts at hard.

This isn't what was promised by the 'Britain Stronger in Europe' case which predicted house price crashes, rising unemployment, a stock market crash and an immediate recession.

All nonsense. There's an analysis of it here.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/five-remain-doomsday-predictions-that-aged-the-worst

I really don't know why people keep harking back to a time now more than five years in the past. There's pros and cons, sure, but just focusing on the negatives will just mean you don't see or exploit the opportunities and will grow increasingly bitter. Times have changed.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

I’m really looking forward to being 120 because that’s when Rees-Mogg says the benefits of Brexit will start flooding in.

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

I’m really looking forward to being 120 because that’s when Rees-Mogg says the benefits of Brexit will start flooding in.

I'm looking forward to being 120 so people stop moaning about brexit!

[Swiss Peter]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

You've just written some predictions there. Not facts. The facts show that almost five years after the vote the UK is generally performing on a par with the EU and a year after leaving we are generally outperforming our peers - needless to say the pandemic makes a proper analysis impossible but you can only go on the facts at hard.

This isn't what was promised by the 'Britain Stronger in Europe' case which predicted house price crashes, rising unemployment, a stock market crash and an immediate recession.

All nonsense. There's an analysis of it here.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/five-remain-doomsday-predictions-that-aged-the-worst

I really don't know why people keep harking back to a time now more than five years in the past. There's pros and cons, sure, but just focusing on the negatives will just mean you don't see or exploit the opportunities and will grow increasingly bitter. Times have changed.

Oh God. There you again. Why can't you understand that current trade figures are not a conclusive measure of the impacts of Brexit?. I'm sure even you accepted that - many threads and many posts ago. Maybe JamesWales has got the prediction of impact on productivity of Brexit right and OBR have got it wrong. We'll see.

We left the EU on Jan 31st 2020, not 5 years ago, by the way.

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Oh God. There you again. Why can't you understand that current trade figures are not a conclusive measure of the impacts of Brexit?. I'm sure even you accepted that - many threads and many posts ago. Maybe JamesWales has got the prediction of impact on productivity of Brexit right and OBR have got it wrong. We'll see.

We left the EU on Jan 31st 2020, not 5 years ago, by the way.

You clearly haven't read my post. I state 'five years after the vote to leave and a year after leaving'

It's not me making extreme predictions here. And yes I accept the current state of the world means you can't make clear conclusions yet. I'm not doing that though, that's you. I'm just calmily stating facts.

And as you allude to earlier; there's far more to assess than trading figures. But when looking at wage growth, GDP growth, unemployment, the stock market, foreign investment, house prices (which I actually want to slow down considerably) etc etc etc the reality is that the predictions of doom haven't happened.

Maybe they will. But they haven't. Some kind of acknowledgement of that would be nice

[Swiss Peter]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

You clearly haven't read my post. I state 'five years after the vote to leave and a year after leaving'

It's not me making extreme predictions here. And yes I accept the current state of the world means you can't make clear conclusions yet. I'm not doing that though, that's you. I'm just calmily stating facts.

And as you allude to earlier; there's far more to assess than trading figures. But when looking at wage growth, GDP growth, unemployment, the stock market, foreign investment, house prices (which I actually want to slow down considerably) etc etc etc the reality is that the predictions of doom haven't happened.

Maybe they will. But they haven't. Some kind of acknowledgement of that would be nice

I read it - just didn't see the relevance of the 5 year reference.

We agree then that you can't draw firm conclusions yet. You seem to draw comfort from how things are panning out currently - I am the opposite.

One thing. The status of the City of London. I did see this as a serious threat given the economic impact of a decline in UK financial services. So far that threat is playing out less dramatically than some commentators were predicting. Well, at least we seem to be broadly maintaining what we had already. For now, at least.

Btw, where am I saying you can draw firm conclusions?! I was saying the exact opposite (....actually, don't bother. Enjoy your Saturday )

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

I read it - just didn't see the relevance of the 5 year reference.

We agree then that you can't draw firm conclusions yet. You seem to draw comfort from how things are panning out currently - I am the opposite.

One thing. The status of the City of London. I did see this as a serious threat given the economic impact of a decline in UK financial services. So far that threat is playing out less dramatically than some commentators were predicting. Well, at least we seem to be broadly maintaining what we had already. For now, at least.

Btw, where am I saying you can draw firm conclusions?! I was saying the exact opposite (....actually, don't bother. Enjoy your Saturday )

Yeah, enjoy ur Saturday too mate 👍

[Doucas]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Nearly every 'prediction' of doom regarding Brexit has proven to be totally untrue. I can't think of a single one that hasn't? Maybe something around some fishing problems? Perhaps it's true when you re-read it that the predictions referred only to teething problems hidden behind apocalyptic headlines?

It was always going to be so, for three key reasons.

1 / the public generally don't vote against their own economic interests.

2 / the predictions were always nakedly political and impossible to obtain a genuine non partisan prediction for

3 / even if the predictions were true (and they werent) when circumstances or variables change then the results change. So for example if importing something from abroad did become trickier (and in some cases it has) then the purchaser is now probably buying the same product from within the UK. There's no net economic cost, just a change

Yeah just the £80 billion extra costs per year which has led to national insurance increasing. Exports and imports down significantly. Nhs and care on the brink due to staff shortages.

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Yeah just the £80 billion extra costs per year which has led to national insurance increasing. Exports and imports down significantly. Nhs and care on the brink due to staff shortages.

That's made up stuff though isn't it. And if you think there were no staff shortages before 2020 then I have a bridge to sell you. National Insurance rises to cover social care. Looking after our elderly parents doesn't come free.

[Doucas]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

That's made up stuff though isn't it. And if you think there were no staff shortages before 2020 then I have a bridge to sell you. National Insurance rises to cover social care. Looking after our elderly parents doesn't come free.

Please point out where I said there were never staff shortages before? Exactly I didn't, you know you've got such a weak argument there you actually just made up what I said and argued against that. But it's undeniable that brexit has made that situation far far worse.

£80 billion a year is widely quoted https://www.ft.com/content/6885073e-...9-5a7bc6122d72

And we wouldn't need to have increased national insurance if we weren't hemorrhaging money from brexit.

How much have the tories added to our debt? £1.1 trillion?! You say things aren't free but then you vote for a party who has decimated our economy.

Many in my generation are so utterly beyond fed up of people like you and are counting down the days until your voting block (which had all the advantages and passed **** all onto us) pisses off.

[JamesWales]

Re: Another Brexit Bonus

Please point out where I said there were never staff shortages before? Exactly I didn't, you know you've got such a weak argument there you actually just made up what I said and argued against that. But it's undeniable that brexit has made that situation far far worse.

£80 billion a year is widely quoted https://www.ft.com/content/6885073e-...9-5a7bc6122d72

And we wouldn't need to have increased national insurance if we weren't hemorrhaging money from brexit.

How much have the tories added to our debt? £1.1 trillion?! You say things aren't free but then you vote for a party who has decimated our economy.

Many in my generation are so utterly beyond fed up of people like you and are counting down the days until your voting block (which had all the advantages and passed **** all onto us) pisses off.

Yeah but our economy isn't decimated in the slightest

National debt increased, no question. But that's what furlough and the rest does.

And how old do you think I am btw🤣

Wishing death on people doesn't encourage people to see things your way either. It makes people think you must be a right bellend..won't listen to him then.