Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

This is no longer 1905, are you really suggesting that in a modern cosmopolitan city like Cardiff that Welsh nonconformists are ruling the roost ?, are chapels even a thing in Cardiff these days ?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

This is no longer 1905, are you really suggesting that in a modern cosmopolitan city like Cardiff that Welsh nonconformists are ruling the roost ?, are chapels even a thing in Cardiff these days ?

Why do you say its only people in Cardiff? And sadly as I said it isn't just overly religious people but others who are just bred plain miserable lol

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

Just read an article that said the U of Cambridge estimate that the rise in R rate lags 3 weeks behind and that the rise is due to Greater testing in Care homes whilst the number is dropping in the general community, which gives the government more room for manouvre.

[Hilts]

Re: Coronavirus update

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

Surely with the stay alert slogan and the easing of lockdown they must be aware that the up to date figure is better and the r rate is going down.?

[Hilts]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just read an article that said the U of Cambridge estimate that the rise in R rate lags 3 weeks behind and that the rise is due to Greater testing in Care homes whilst the number is dropping in the general community, which gives the government more room for manouvre.

Ah just seen this.

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

Why do you say its only people in Cardiff? And sadly as I said it isn't just overly religious people but others who are just bred plain miserable lol

I'm not saying anything of the sort, I'm surprised you say it's such a big thing in 2020, you were talking about Llandaff and isn't that in Cardiff ?, are you suggesting it's a Wales thing ? or a UK thing ? or even further afield ?,

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm not saying anything of the sort, I'm surprised you say it's such a big thing in 2020, you were talking about Llandaff and isn't that in Cardiff ?, are you suggesting it's a Wales thing ? or a UK thing ? or even further afield ?,

I have experienced it more in Wales than in England. Yes Llandaff is in Cardiff. It is a City. It had a Cathedral before Cardiff was a town.
I experienced a similar kind of thing in northern Germany in certain areas too.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.

What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

But weren't their samples weighted ?, why do they think their samples weren't weighted ?

The UK relied heavily on medical modellers and not enough on virologists was a common criticism of our lot, our lot seem to have got it wrong at every turn but the one area they should have some idea on was modelling, are you saying the UK modellers had no idea how to mathematically do their calculations ?

Yes they can make the wrong assumptions, yes they might not fully understand the characteristics of this new virus and if you put the wrong information into a computer you get wrong information out, no doubt that happened, but are you saying they don't know how to go about working it out statistically and mathematically (if they had put the correct info in) ?

We don't yet know how many people have contracted covid-19 without symptoms. The base rate needs to be an accurate figure.

Example.

x% of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia suffer from breast cancer. During testing of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia, the twice that percentage of women tested positive for breast cancer using a brand new method. Result - women are retested with the old method. First tests are found to have a significant number of false positives. Accuracy of test is calculated not just on false positives, but also based on that base rate.

The difference is, we know the base rate of women with cancer aged 44-49 in South East Asia. We don't know how many people have contracted covid. The other difference is that women are tested for breast cancer regardless of an assumption that they have it or not. In the main, testing of covid is done on people displaying symptoms.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?

My point is that it has taken 8 weeks of monumental efforts to get the R rate down below 1. Interestingly, the subject of a lag wasn't mentioned when the rate was 0.5-0.9! It was offered as definitive proof of us coming out of the peak, and giving the message of "stay alert".

Now, about these pubs....

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Surely with the stay alert slogan and the easing of lockdown they must be aware that the up to date figure is better and the r rate is going down.?

Q then is, why are they not telling us the "up to date" figure, and giving us the "out of date" figure?

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

We don't yet know how many people have contracted covid-19 without symptoms. The base rate needs to be an accurate figure.

Example.

x% of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia suffer from breast cancer. During testing of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia, the twice that percentage of women tested positive for breast cancer using a brand new method. Result - women are retested with the old method. First tests are found to have a significant number of false positives. Accuracy of test is calculated not just on false positives, but also based on that base rate.

The difference is, we know the base rate of women with cancer aged 44-49 in South East Asia. We don't know how many people have contracted covid. The other difference is that women are tested for breast cancer regardless of an assumption that they have it or not. In the main, testing of covid is done on people displaying symptoms.

I'm afraid you don't get it, you haven't answered my questions.
Are you saying that these medical modellers and statisticians across the World don't know how to weight samples ?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm afraid you don't get it, you haven't answered my questions.
Are you saying that these medical modellers and statisticians across the World don't know how to weight samples ?

What would they weight the samples on? The key piece of missing data is the number of people who have had covid-19.